Parlaypickles said:
Saturday, Tennessee Titans +7½ and money line?
Im personally not on the moneyline due to the situation I'm in as a direct result of this post lol. Technically I'm on the Chiefs ML thru hedging that I outlined prior to last wks game where I took Chiefs to win AFC Title -145.
Im alive with a handful of futures involving 49ers, Titans and Chiefs, so this weekend is very different than a normal weekend in terms of the approach and mentality I have going in about how to attack these games.
Doing my best to isolate this game mentally and emotionally, I like the Titans with the points. I have a +9 -115 ticket in one of my accounts. Both teams are HOT ATS (TEN 7-2 L9, KC 6-0-1 L7), but KC is the public darling, not TEN and as a result this line is off a bit still. I'd make it 5.5 or 6. I still think TEN overall is being disrespected bc they aren't name brand. Also lately bc people have this warped idea that if you throw for less than 100 yards and win it automatically means you were lucky. While it may be unusual, esp in today's NFL, I come out of the last two weeks commending the TEN coaching staff for being creative and intentional with gameplans, and having the players buy in and execute near flawlessly. Team chemistry and unity this time of year is something that is undervalued in my opinion. When NE's defensive metrics were trash during their title runs somehow people found ways to easily excuse it as a reason to think they couldnt contend for a title. And NE proved those people right. Why cant TEN? Considering Vrabel is as cerebral a player as Belichik had and a member of his coaching tree, I dont think we can rule out that we're seeing the residue of Belichick's influence on Vrabel. Those NE defenses would bend and bend and bend but not break.
TEN's D unfortunately matches up very poorly with KC tho, the worst of all the matchups they've had since the last time they played. That is a legitimate concern. But KCs run D also matches up terribly with TEN and should keep play-action as a threat all game. Also I have this image of Mathieu trying to stop Derrick Henry from gaining the extra yards when he needs them and it's not a pretty image for Mathieu lol.
Overall I think if TEN is going to cover, they're going to be a threat to win the game. And if the Chiefs cover, a 30 point win isnt out of the question. After all, TEN is on their 4th road game in 4 weeks which included two hard fought playoff games. Teams also have been prone to struggling the week after playing the Ravens. These are legitimate factors to consider.