STEELERS -2 at Arizona
Allegedly the wiseguys and the sharp guys who do podcasts are all on AZ simply because of perception/overreaction (Pitt won last and AZ got blown out) and "Duck Hodges and Pitt shouldn't be road faves" etc and I get all that.... But they aren't laying 7.5 or 10.5.... Or even 3.5 or 3.
The other "reason" people like AZ is cuz "Pitt likely to have a let down after big emotional win over Cleveland" but I don't buy that. (That game had weight this year but 'beating Cleveland at home' isn't anyones superbowl; certainly not Pittsburgh's.) They are quietly 7-2 since the horrific start and finally have the better of their backup QBs at the helm and a swarming defense carrying them. Yes, Tomlin has a poor ATS record on the road vs losing teams. But we gotta figure most of those games had big gaudy spreads with Ben/Bell/Brown. As for their Straight-Up struggles on the road vs bad teams... Most seasons they were cruising contenders whereas this year they are scrapping to prove themselves without Ben and Connor and Juju.... And are still in must win mode for the wildcard.
One thing I have yet to hear or read elsewhere: the center Pouncey will be back following suspension. If you're on this website I don't need to explain the importance of the Center to a football team. Especially a team looking to protect a rookie QB and grind clock with a running game missing it's top back.
Travelling to AZ will be a nice break from the December weather in Pitt but it's not a distracting party destination like New Orleans or Tampa. It'll be what Tomlin likes to call a "Business trip." And after spending months having nightmares about Lamar Jackson, Pitt won't be caught off guard vs a mobile QB in Kyler Murray who can take a broken-play scramble to the house. Also we know Steeler fans are everywhere and while AZ might not be L.A. or Washington as far as "stadium always half full of opposing fans," there are likely a ton of Steeler fans all over the SW US who will be flocking to this game...
Finally, Arizona has poor offensive and defensive lines. Games are won in the trenches and Pitt has the big advantage on both sides.
I love Pittsburgh to win this game and with the line sitting at under 3 it's one of the best bets on the board this week.
Steelers win 17-14.
Other plays I like:
Parlay Dolphins +5.5 w/ over 46
Tease Niners +8 w/ Raiders +9
Steelers/Cardinals Under 43.5
BOL to all this holiday season... Time for the bookies to pay for ALL the Christmas and Hannukah presents!