109 Colts (+3.5) over Texans
Battle for 1st place in the AFC South and I think the Colts are the better team. These teams played back on 10/20 and the Colts won by 7 with Brissett playing his best game and taking advantage of the Texans secondary and pass defense. He was 26/39 for 326 yards 4 TDs 0 INTs a 126.7 QB rating and a 74.8 QBR so I’m looking for a similar performance. When Andrew Lock announced his retirement a lot of people lost confidence in the Colts but Brissett has stepped in and performed well enough to help them be in position to take over 1st place in the division.
254 Bills (-4) over Broncos
This season there’s been a number of backup QBs stepping in and the Broncos had Brandon Allen take over for Joe Flacco and he performed decent to go 1-1 SU and 2-0 ATS vs the Browns and Vikings but now he’s gonna have to deal with a top 3 passing defense in the Bills. They allow less than 200 yards passing and 62% completion. If the Bills defense can stuff the run, it’ll be a long day for the Broncos and Brandon Allen.
260 Jets (+3) over Raiders
Sam Darnold has played a lot better over the last couple weeks and I think a key factor to contribute to that is him playing against average to below average passing defenses (Giants & Redskins) and he’ll get to face another below average passing defense in the Raiders that rank 27th in the league.
277 49ers (-3) over Packers
There’s been some unfair criticism about Jimmy Garoppolo but his overall season numbers are very similar to Aaron Rodgers and over the last few weeks he’s had a higher QBR than Rodgers (62 to 42.3). Rodgers will also have to deal with the tougher defense while Jimmy will be up against the 25th ranked rush defense and 23rd ranked pass defense. Garoppolo is also coming off a game where Arizona committed to shutting down the run and only gave up 34 yards rushing and Jimmy had 424 yards of the offense through the air without some of his best receiving options, even though Deebo Samuel is emerging as a reliable target the last couple weeks.
273 Seahawks (+1.5) over Eagles
All season the Seahawks have depended on Russell Wilson to go win the game for them and he’s delivered to an 8-2 record and a front runner for the MVP. They have a number of games won by a field goal or less and that’s because Wilson leads the league in game winning drives this year with 5. The Eagles seem to be heading in the opposite direction. The NFC is tough this year and with their record at 5-5 they would have to win their division to have a spot in the playoffs so they can’t afford another loss but going up against Wilson trying to get a win will be difficult. I like the Seahawks not only to cover but win SU.