I think the 2019 underdog trend is a little overblown. We've had 54% and 55% underdog seasons in the recent past and I fully expect regression to the mean by January. The media is all torqued up about private jets and travel being easier and that's true, but not that much easier than it was a year or two ago.
I'm with you on the NE and MIN trends. I'm gonna feel like a total sucker laying a whole Vietnamese chalk factory worth of chalk, but I'm probably gonna do it anyway. We are near the absolute peak of Vikings and Patriots hype. Power ratings wise, I think the numbers are just too high. I saw the Patriots line Sunday 9AM ET at -10.5. If they were any other NFL team I would grab the +13 right now and laugh at how reactionary bettors are. But it's the Patriots and I think I'll hate myself less if I bet them and lose than if I bet against them.
The Vikings are a great, well-rounded top-5 team but they're playing at what is probably an unsustainable level. Now they're down Thielen. Sure, Cousins is facing his old shitpot team and motivation has been a complete non-issue lately regardless, but I don't really expect the Vikings from recent weeks to show up Thursday night. But again, I need to stop finding reasons not to bet on NE and MIN. Count me in for chalk.