Arbitrary start point back to 2004
When making week 1 picks I always struggle every year as I have no idea who is good and who is bad... the thought process is that weeks 1-3 are considered pre-season for most teams since their starters dont play much if at all in the actual preseason.
Having said that, I often wondered how teams that go 4-0 or 0-4 in preseason do in week 1... I went back to 2004 and here are the results SU (not ATS as I did not have the spreads back 15 years).
4-0 Preseason Teams : 17-16 SU in week 1
0-4 Preseason Teams : 10-23 SU in week 1 and 4-14 on the road
I will be fading any 0-4 teams (hoping 1 or 2 of them this preseason) especially if they start on the road in week 1.
A little more info on Baltimore since they seem to be preseason darlings of late... 4-1 SU, outscoring their opponents by 15+ pts a game since '04.
Hope this helps someone!