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Link to 2018-2019 reg season: https://pregame.com/pregame-forums/f/nfl/1722663/nfl-props-273-201-50-77u
Link to 2018-2019 playoffs: https://pregame.com/pregame-forums/f/nfl/1733535/2018-2019-nfl-playoff-props-27-15-64-29-11-51u---whole-season-300-216-58-14-62-28u
Alright guys, football season is about to be underway. Posting some of these lines late - they were posted sometime on twitter or bettheprop.com during the offseason - but just wanted to get the list more organized.
Kyler Murray OVER 3190.5 Pass Yards and 20.5 TOTAL TDs - Kliff Kingsbury using the Air Raid offense and supposed offensive genius + added a buncha offensive weapons in draft. out of 19 QBs who started in 14+ gms last year, all of them went over 3200 yards. If Murray plays all 16 games, he legit needs to average just 200 yards per game to win this bet and 29 QBs threw for more than 200 ypg in 2018. Out of 24 QBs who started in 12+ games last year, 18 out of 24 threw for more than 20 TDs and we need Total TDs plus we get some TDs with Kyler's legs. Mike Clay of ESPN currently has him projected for 3875 passing yards and 26 Total TDs.
Link to my tweet: https://twitter.com/JCProps17/status/1122214228537106433
Odell Beckham Jr. OVER 1100.5 Receiving Yards - Throughout his five-year career, Beckham has eclipsed this number in three out of five seasons, despite playing a full 16-game season just once. His career average of 92.8 yards per game is the second-most in NFL history, and that was with Eli Manning as his QB. If you extrapolate his career average over a 16 game season, Beckham comes in at 1,485 receiving yards. Even if you project him at 12 games, he would still come out to 1113.6 yards (92.8*12), which still eclipses this soft line of 1100.5 yards. For reference 16 pass catchers were able to go over 1,100 receiving yards last year, and Beckham came very close to topping this number despite only playing in 12 games. If nothing else, it will be a nice to see Beckham with a fresh-armed QB. He’s played his entire career with a declining Manning at the helm and will now get to play with an ascending talent in Baker Mayfield. Although their 2018 stats are more comparable than you would think, it was clear that Manning left so many plays on the field for Beckham. If anything, Beckham has been propping up Mannings’ stat lines for years — he passes for 15.4 % percent fewer yards without Beckham in the lineup. Beckham also gets a play-calling boost, going from Ben McAdoo (2014-2017) and Pat Shurmer (2018) to an exciting duo of HC Freddie Kitchens and OC Todd Monken. Freddie Kitchens was promoted to offensive coordinator in Week 8 for the Browns last year after HC Hue Jackson and OC Todd Haley were fired. Once this happened, Mayfield was finally able to showcase his talent, the result of which was Kitchens getting promoted to HC. If you extrapolate, Mayfield’s eight-game sample with Kitchens over a full season, Mayfield would’ve thrown for 4,509 yards last year.As for Monken, in one season as the Bucs’ OC, their QB combination of Ryan Fitzpatrick and Jameis Winston led the NFL in passing yards (5,125) and passing yards per game (320.3).This is an offense with passing pedigree, and they just acquired a WR who has more receiving yards through his first three seasons than any other WR since 2000. With the combination of his immense talent and the upgrades at QB and coach, this line of 1100.5 yards seems too low for one of the best WRs in the game.As always, the risk in these season-long props is injury, but I feel that factor is already well priced in here. Beckham, can easily clear this number without playing a full season if he can keep up with his career averages.
Link to article: http://www.bettheprop.com/2019/03/19/odell-beckham-props-is-feddie-kitchens-cookin-up-a-monster-season/
Adam Thielen UNDER 1212.5 Receiving Yards - Thielen is coming off a strong 2018 season where he eclipsed this number fairly easily, finishing the season with 1,373 receiving yards (he even had 1236 yards through his first 13 games).But it’s unlikely that the 2019 season will go as well thanks to the change in the Vikings offensive philosophy. Last year, the Vikings ran the 4th-most pass plays in the NFL and this year, they are projected to switch to a more run-balanced offense. In weeks 1-14, with former offensive coordinator John DeFillipo at the helm, the Vikings ranked 2nd in the NFL in passing percentage, attempting 40.31 passes per game. However, in weeks 15-17, with the new OC Kevin Stefanski, Minnesota ranked 24th in passing percentage, averaging 27.33 pass attempts per game. Albeit a small sample size, those are some drastic splits in play-calling which should lead to a lot less passing volume this year for the Vikings. In Weeks 15-17, when the Vikings averaged 13 fewer pass attempts per game, Thielen went for 2/19, 5/80 and 3/38 for an average of 45.67 yards. That’s a huge drop off from the 95.1 yards per game he averaged in the previous 14 weeks. The expected shift to a more run-balanced offense is going to hurt his volume. To eclipse the mark of 1,212.5 yards, Thielen would need to average 76 yards per game, and I don’t see that happening with a healthy Dalvin Cook, a first-round pick used on a center, and a new offensive coordinator in run-guru Gary Kubiak.
Link to Article:http://www.bettheprop.com/2019/06/27/nfl-player-props-can-kerryon-johnson-adam-thielen-get-over-in-2019/
Kerryon Johnson OVER 908.5 Rushing Yards - It’s fair to say that Kerryon Johnson was underutilized last season, carrying the ball 118 times in 10 games. Among all RBs with at least 100 carries, Johnson ranked T-2nd in yards per carry (YPC) at 5.4. In Weeks 1-5, Johnson topped out at 47% of the snaps, but once he returned from the bye in Week 7, he saw 59%, 81%, 56%, 71%, & 51% as his coaches realized he was too talented and was too good of a pass blocker to keep on the sidelines. From Weeks 7-11, Johnson ranked 8th in elusive rating, 3rd in breakaway percentage, and 7th in YPC while averaging 13.6 carries and 71 rushing yards per game. If you extrapolate that over a 16-game season, it comes out around 218 carries for 1136 rushing yards.With a full NFL offseason under his belt and Blount out of the way, I expect Johnson to get off to a much faster start in 2019. The Lions also let go of offensive coordinator Jim Bob Cooter and replaced him with former Seahawks OC Darrell Bevell. Bevell was the coordinator for Seattle from 2011-2017 and in those years, the Seahawks ranked 12th, 1st, 1st, 2nd, 4th, 16th and 20th in rush attempts. "We'll always be about running the football" was Bevell’s quote he was hired to the Lions, and the numbers back it up. Detroit ranked 31st in rush percentage in 2017 and was 19th last year. Additionally, in eight out of his 12 seasons as an offensive coordinator, Bevell has had an RB carry 280+ times in 8 out of 12 seasons. Although I don’t expect Johnson to hit the 280 carries, 210-230 totes are realistic. In that range, he would need to average at least 4.4 YPC to eclipse 908.5 rush yards (210 * 4.4 = 924).
Link to Article: http://www.bettheprop.com/2019/06/27/nfl-player-props-can-kerryon-johnson-adam-thielen-get-over-in-2019/
Mike Davis UNDER 461.5 Rush Yards - In his fourth season, Mike Davis was able to eclipse this number by 53 yards last year thanks to a career-high of 112 carries and some injuries to fellow RBs Chris Carson and Rashaad Penny.In his three previous seasons, Davis had 122 carries total.The South Carolina product signed with the Bears for a two-year deal worth $6 million, and the Bears traded away Jordan Howard, opening the door to a potential time-share with Tarik Cohen. But then the NFL Draft happened, and the Bears traded up to 73 to draft another RB, David Montgomery who the Bears have talked up his ability to play all three downs. And don’t forget about Cohen who is locked into 3rd-down duties and also occasionally receives touches on 1st and 2nd down due to his mismatch ability. He’s a third-string RB who will struggle for touches. Mike Clay of ESPN has Davis projected for half of his total (461.5) at 230 rushing yards.
Link to article: http://www.bettheprop.com/2019/06/27/nfl-player-props-can-kerryon-johnson-adam-thielen-get-over-in-2019/
http://www.bettheprop.com/2019/07/18/25-nfl-season-long-player-props-to-attack/ - timestamp for the props below. Writeups coming soon.
DJ Moore OVER 59.5 Recs - went for 85tars/55 recs/788 yards/14.3 ypc in 16 games his rookie year (starting 10 of them). Since 2000, 11 21-year-old rookie WRs have had more than 50 receptions (Amari Cooper, Keenan Allen, Mike Evans, Sammy Watkins, Percy Harvin, Juju Smith-Schuster, Larry Fitzgerald, Jeremy Maclin, Brandin Cooks, DeAndre Hopkins and Josh Gordon). DJ Moore joins this ELITE group with 55 recs his rookie year. As sophomores, that group averaged *81.3 recs* (Not a single WR went under 59.5 -- a 100% hit rate). Now going into his sophomore season with a healthy Cam, I don't see how Moore doesn't smash this number as 51 players in the NFL had 60+ receptions last year. Mike Clay has him projected for 108 targets and 72 receptions.
https://twitter.com/bettheprop/status/1145044142071996416
Carson Wentz OVER 3628.5 Pass Yards - This number is off by a few hundred yards on the over. As a rookie, he threw for 3782 yards in 16 GS (236.4 ypg). His sophomore year. he threw for 3296 yards in 13 GS (253.5 ypg) and then for his 3rd year, he improved again, throwing for 3074 yards in 11 GS (279.5 ypg). Although, he has missed 8 games over the past two seasons, I'm not that worried about his health for this year. Going into this season, the Eagles have the best supporting cast ever around Wentz. They added Desean Jackson and JJ Arcega Whiteside to the WR corps. They added Jordan Howard and Miles Sanders to the backfield and have the best 1-2 punch in the league at TE with Zach Ertz and Dallas Goedart. The Eagles also boast one of the best Olines in the league and then they also added a 1st round pick who is going to be a backup! (LT Andre Dillard). Their offense is stacked and the only way Wentz doesn't eclipse this number is because of injury. Mike Clay has him projected for 4036 pass yards in 15 games played.
Dak Prescott OVER 3499.5 Pass Yards - think this number is off by a few hundred yards as well. Since entering the NFL, Prescott has thrown for 3667 yards (229.2 ypg) > 3324 yards (207.8 ypg) > 3885 yards (242.8 ypg). Going into his 4th season and contract year, Dak should be headed for his best statistical season yet after a hot finish to 2018 after adding Amari Cooper. From weeks 9-17 with Cooper in the lineup, Dak averaged 274.2 passing ypg compared to 202.4 without him (71.8 ypg difference). Without Amari, he averaged 29.42 pass attempts per game but with him, the got boosted to 35.55 per game as well as increasing his yards per attempt from 6.88 to 7.71. Another huge thing is that the Cowboys also decided to get rid of the coordinator of the vanilla offense in Scott Linehan and replaced him with a young and upcoming coordinator in Kellen Moore who is going to be alot more aggressive and creative on offense. QB coach, Jon Kitna has said great thing about Prescott's deep ball as well saying that "it's tremondous." The stats also prove this - Dak ranked 4th in the NFL in passer rating on deep throws last year (115.7) but he was ranked 24th out of 35 QBs in deep pass attempts so hopefully Moore starts to utilize his deep ball more. Another thing to mention is the possible holdout of Ezekiel Elliot which will lead to the Cowboys to needing to rely on Prescott more. Mike Clay has him projected for 514 attempts and 3786 passing yards.
Andrew Luck UNDER 4736.5 Pass Yards - have a middle with OVER 4289.5 as well but more on this Under. this number is just flat out too high by a few hundred yards. Only 3 QBs last year eclipsed this number and throughout his six NFL seasons, Luck has only gone over this number once back in 2014 where he threw for 4761 yards. Luck even threw for a career-high 639 pass attempts last year and finished at 4593 yards.
Mike Clay has him projected for 594 pass attempts and 4330 pass yards.
Health for week 1 in the air right now?
Philip Lindsay UNDER 967.5 Rush Yards - Lindsay was a pleasant surprise for the Broncos in 2018 as an UDFA for Colorado who led the team in rushing with 1037 rushing yards and had an insanely efficient 5.4 yards per carry (2nd in NFL). Coming off a historic rookie season, you would think that Lindsay would take another step and improve his yardage totals but I think the opposite is going to happen for numerous reasons. There have been lots of reports coming out of camp that the Broncos coaching staff wants to "finally establish a true split" at RB between Lindsay and Royce Freeman (https://twitter.com/CharlesRobinson/status/1156672215489896453). This will directly cut into the amount of carries Lindsay receives after he had 192 last year. Although, he provides an absolute zero in the run game, the Broncos also just signed Theo Riddick who will see a lot of the 3rd down work which takes Lindsay off of the field some more. The Broncos also want to preserve Lindsay to keep him fresh and explosive by scaling back his touches due to the fact that he's a smaller back, was banged up last year and had a lengthy rehab this offseason with his wrist surgery. Lindsay also should have some regression from his 5.4ypc which all point to this one going under. Mike Clay from ESPN has him projected for 183 carries and 827 rushing yards.
All bets made at NJ Sportsbooks or BetOnline.