FYI.. I will be posting the previous 13 bets from the past drafts, ideally with the link to them also. Those who have followed for years know that record is legit.
- Kyler Murray UNDER 6.5 -110
I believe Murray will be the first pick, so at under pick 6.5 I am finding a ton of value. Draft insider Tony Pauline is reporting that HC Kliff Kingsbury has already been telling people close to him at the combine that Murray is his guy. He has also reported that Washington has already begun looking into trading for Josh Rosen, as they believe he could be made available soon. NFL Network Kimberly Jones has reported that the expectation amongst the league is that Murray will be the pick, and that teams in the top ten believe they have no chance of getting him. Daniel Jeremiah has started that his sources believe its 50/50. Obviously, this steam began when Kingsbury took the job, since he said during the CFB season that Murray would be the first pick in the draft if he coached an NFL team. Well, Josh Rosen seems to have an indication of what’s coming, as he has deleted all cardinals related posts from his Instagram account (after media scrutiny, he did claim it was hacked). Murray is an ideal fit in Kingsbury’s offense, and the two do share the same agent as well. Forrest Long of the huddle report, who has been the most accurate mock drafter of the past five years, also has Murray as his first overall pick. Louis Riddick, who has interviewed for positions and has league wide contacts, believes it is “more probable then not” that the Cardinals select Kyler Murray.
Cardinals GM Steve Kevin said that Josh Rosen is the Cardinals quarterback “for now”. If the Cardinals are not planning on taking Murray, they sure are doing a good job of selling it. His value is ascending, and if they do not take him, a trade could be very likely. The cardinals have a ton of needs, and could easily trade down in this draft to a team who wants Murray as their franchise quarterback.
Every single year, quarterbacks get pushed up the board and picked earlier then people projected them to get picked once the draft process began. I made the case that Murray will go first, and I did put a little bit on that at +200. However, I love for him to go under pick 6.5, even if it ends up not being Arizona.
- Under 3.5 first round QB’s +160 (Found at PointsBet)
In 211 the CBA changed, which made teams more likely to draft quarterbacks in the first round so they can secure a fifth year option. In those 8 years since, only 3 times have 4+ quarterbacks went in round 1.
It’s going to take an elite quarterback class to make 4+ quarterbacks go in round 1. Murray and Haskins are both locks to go in round 1. Drew lock is probable, but not a lock to go in round 1. Now, this number is based off some crazy assumption that Daniel Jones is more likely then not to go in the first round. Jones was getting some first round hype, but that seems to have died down since a subpar combine Rotoworld, who’s EXCELLENT for accurate draft content, has said Jones is most likely a mid round selection.
This is one of the most least quarterback needy seasons going into free agency that I can remember. The Cardinals will likely take Murray, and the Giants probably take a quarterback first round, likely Haskins. The Bengals are a slim possibility, as are the Broncos. Both teams have a quarterback that they are committing big money to, and it would likely take a prospect they have graded super highly to make them take a QB. Miami and Washington need quarterbacks. Word has it that Miami is tanking 2019 in order to set themselves up for a much stronger 2020 quarterback class. Washington needs one, but they could opt to go the route of Tyrod Taylor/Teddy Bridgewater. That shouldn’t sway a team from taking a quarterback, but Lock will be the only one possibly available that has anything near a first round grade. Josh Rosen is also an option for a lot of these teams if the Cardinals do select Murray.
As said before, I believe Lock is a probable, but not a guaranteed first round pick. I believe Jones is a long shot to be a first round pick, giving us tremendous value on +160 Under 3.5 quarterbacks.
Josh Jacobs O24.5 +120
- Before his pro day, Josh Jacobs was considered a borderline first round pick who would need a good showing in order to solidify his status as a 1R RB. Well, Jacobs ran a 4.6 flat in one 40, and a 4.65 in his other 40 at 216 pounds. He combed the broad jump at 112 inches, which would have been the worst of all RB’s at the combine. Jacobs college production wasn’t exactly that of superstars either. He never eclipsed 640 rushing yards or 120 carries in his college career.
The need for RB’s is not high on the priority list for many of the teams in the league right now. If you just look at teams picking from pick 6-24, the only teams that would ever consider using a first round pick on a RB would be the Dolphins at pick 13 (super unlikely), the Texans at 23, and the Raiders at pick 24. The raiders need a RB, but With Jacobs being considered a fringe R1 prospect at best now, the Raiders with all their other needs would likely wait to take one. The fact that Philly is picking 25 and we don’t have to worry about them is HUGE for this bet. Last year, the first RB in the draft went at 27th overall.
How unusual is a RB running 4.6 or slower going in the first round? In NFL history, the ONLY RB to ever run that slow and still go first round is Mark Ingram. I think no RB first round should be a small favorite, so I’ll gladly take O24.5 as a very smart investment.