NE-2 vs LAR
1)Trends: Not a ton of applicable trends here, other than the fact than NE has played 8 playoffs games since 2016, going 6-2 ATS, while the Rams have played only 3. Edge: NE
2)My Power Rankings: I have NE power rated 1.5 pts better on a neutral. Now, I am not saying that New England’s roster is 1.5 better than the Rams, I am saying when everything is considered (coaching, experience, poise, etc) that’s how I would rate them. The fact that this IS the big game, and New England knows exactly how to prepare and what to expect, IMO has to be worth a minimum of another point. Edge: Slight Edge to NE
3)Situation: Both teams are coming off grueling OT victories, the Patriots have outgained the Chiefs 524-290, while the Rams outgained NO 378-290. Edge: Neutral
4)Fatigue: Both teams should be fairly rested with two weeks off and both had a first round bye. Edge: Neutral
5)Injuries: This is perhaps the healthiest NE has gone into a SB. They are not missing any major contributor due to injury. The Rams have lost Kupp for the year and one has to wonder if Gurley really IS right. Edge: NE
6)Matchups: NE comes in boasting the 4th best offense and 13th best D. The Rams have the yearlong stats of the best offense but only 23rd D. The Patriots will have a HUGE edge in the rushing department. I also believe the Patriots corners will be able to minimize the damage that Woods and Cooks can do. The Patriots pass rush has been excellent as of late, they sacked Mahomes and Rivers a combined 6 times while giving up zero sacks. The Patriots game plan and execution has been downright flawless (save for the bonehead INT Brady threw in the end zone vs KC). They always seem to have right playcall at the right time. Limiting Hill and Kelce to 4 combined catches and 60 yards was a stroke of genius by BB.
We need to give the Rams a TON of credit: initially everything went wrong for them against NO but they kept grinding and managed to squeeze out a victory. To me that game was a lot more about NO not being able to seize the moment, and the Rams benefited from a horrendous call. Not much you can do about the refs, they re human too, and everything happens so fast live. The Saints had numerous chances to put them away and just didn’t do it, crying about the blatant missed PI is a little childish IMO. They had them down, they just didn’t deliver the knockout punch. Edge: NE
7)Coaching: The Rams have assembled a very impressive coaching staff. Still, when you see the way that the Pats conduct business, there is NO way there is a better coaching staff in the business, especially when you consider the fact that Brady is essentially a coach on the field, while Goff still relies on McVay to tell him what to do. Edge: NE
8)Stats As mentioned above, the Patriots have the better, more balanced team stats wise. Edge: NE
VERDICT: As impressive a roster as the Rams have built and as impressive a coaching job as McVay has done, I STILL have to go with the grizzled vets. It will take a perfect game to beat the Pats, and I simply don’t think that Goff is good enough, or that the Rams will be poised enough to do it. Belichick will use the blueprint that Chicago has shown for stopping this Rams offense, and I think he will force Goff into at least one mistake.
Meanwhile this Patriots OL has been downright dominant. The Rams benefitted from a decimated line by the Saints that was not able to allow Brees time or open interior lanes for the Saints RBs. That will not be the case in this game. The Patriots should be able to run the ball and expose the weak LB corps of the Rams with passes to their elite pass catching RB James White. I also believe Edelman and Gronk will pose major trouble for the Rams middle of the field.
Patriots -2 for 2 Units.