For what it’s worth, last week was a bitch! I was smart enough to jump off a big over play in the IND/KC game because of the weather, but I wasn’t smart enough to jump off the IND side and teasers. Between the side and two teasers, that cost me 5 units.
The Colts looked like a dome team that didn’t have a clue about playing in bad weather. They were totally inept! The bitch part is that despite the 18 point 31-13 blowout, the Colts could have covered at least the teasers if Adam Vinateri had just hit that 25 yard FG and the extra point that he missed, and if the Colts had been able to score that meaningless garbage time TD at the end. They had a 1st and goal at the KC 11 with 34 seconds left, but couldn’t put ihe damn ball in. Still, I can’t really complain, I had the wrong side and didn’t deserve the win.
I was right about the Rams. They ran all over the Cowboys vaunted run D, with both Gurley and Anderson gaining over 100 yards. Of course, they might have been helped by the Cowboys “tipping” their defensive plays/ It sure looked that way. The Rams went up and down the field all night long, and only a meaningless garbage time TD made it look a lot closer than it really was.
I was also mostly right about the Saints, but not right enough to cash either my 1st half or full game side. I expected the Eagles to run out of gas, and they did. However, I did not expect such a sloppy first quarter from the Saints. In that 1st quarter the Saints ran 10 plays for just 23 yards (2.3 YPP) and 1 pick. The Eagles ran 18 play for 156 yards (8.7 YPP), and 2 TDs. From that point on, it was all NO. The Saints outgained the Eagles 397 yards to 94, and averaged 6.5 YPP to PHIL’s 3.2 YPP, with 2 TDs, 2 FGs, and 1 missed FG. This game should have been a blowout, but the Saints left too many points on the field. They won’t have that luxury against the Rams this week.
The bottom line was a 2.53 unit loss for the weekend. In the words of an old Ian Tyson song “it makes me wish I’d of done things different, but wishin’ don’t make it so”
So we move on to this week’s games. Not surprisingly, in this season of offense, the four teams left have the best offenses according to Football Outsiders DVOA, but not one had a top 10 defense. NO came closest at #11.
LA Rams @ NO
Offensively, the Rams are loaded. They are averaging 30.4 offensive PPG (rank #3), 423.4 YPG (ranks #2), and 6.3 YPP (rank #2). They have a solid 45% third down conversion rate, but sometimes struggle in the red zone scoring TDs on just 57.1% of the red zone trips. Not surprisingly, FO ranks the Rams offense #2, behind only the Chiefs. However, like most teams, the Rams aren’t as potent on the road where they average only 27.6 offensive PPG, 389.8 YPG and 6.1 YPP. That’s 5.3 PPG less than the Rams average at home, 63.4 YPG less, and 0.4 YPP less. Their third down conversion rate is 6.4% lower on the road, and their red zone TD rate is is 3.4% lower.
The Saints may very well have the best of the four remaining defenses, but it’s still not great. They are giving up 21.1 offensive PPG (rank #15), 343.2 YPG (rank #11), and 5.7 YPP (rank #16). The Saints struggle to get off the field on third down, and in the red zone allowing a 40.8% third down conversion rate (rank #24), and a 54% TD rate in the red zone (rank #25). Excluding Week 17, when they rested their starters, the Saints D has given up an average of just 14 PPG over their last 8 games, and last week, they completely shut down the Eagles after the first quarter, allowing less than 100 yards over the final 3 quarters.
What is surprising is that, unlike their offense, the Saints defense is no better at home that on the road, and might even be not quite as good. At home, they are giving up 23.8 offensive PPG, 359.7 YPG, and 6.0 YPP. That’s 5.7 PPG more than the Saints average on the road, 634.9 YPG more, and o.6 YPP more. It makes no sense, but there it is. However, they are allowing a 3% lower third down conversion rate at home, and a 5.1% lower TD rate in the red zone. Now that makes more sense. The bottom line is that a very good Rams offense should be able to score on this Saints defense.
Last week, the Rams were able to run all over a very good DAL run D with their two headed RB monster combo of Todd Gurley (16 carries for 1115 yards and 7.2 YPC) and CJ Anderson (23 carries for 123 yards and 5.3 YPC). Their OL absolutely dominated the line of scrimmage. If the Rams can do that again, they can win this game, but that’s a mighty big if..
I don’t put a whole lot of stock in what the Rams did last week. The Cowboys were almost certainly “tipping” their defensive calls. The Cowboys don’t blitz much. They try to create pressure with their front four and they do it by using “stunts”, moving their DL line players at the last second to different gaps to confuse the offense and clog up running lanes. The problem was that the Cowboys had “tells” and the Rams coaching staff figured it out, got that info to their QB, and he was able to check into the right running play to exploit the gaps that the Cowboys had vacated. The result was 273 rushing yards, 5.7 YPC , and an easy Rams win.
Yes the Rams still have a very good rushing attack, and they may still be able to establish an effective ground game. They are averaging 147.3 rushing YPG (rank #3), and 4.9 YPC (rank #3). Gurley and Anderson combined have given the Rams 1,550 rushing yards (5.2 YPC) and 19 TDs. FO ranks the Rams rushing attack #1. The Rams are also much better at run blocking than pass blocking. FO ranks their run blocking unit #1 as well.
However, the Saints have a stout rushing defense. They are giving up an average 0f 76.4 rushing YPG (rank #2), and 3.6 YPA (rank #1). FO ranks the Saints DL #2, and their overall rush D #8. Last week they held the Eagles to just 49 rushing yards on 16 carries, but the Eagles didn’t have a strong rushing attack. The Rams definitely do. Back in Week 9, when these two teams met, Anderson wasn’t even with the Rams, and the Saints held Gurley to 68 rushing yards on 13 carries. However, the Saints suffered a major injury last week when DT Sheldon Rankins tore his Achilles. Rankins was excellent as both a run-stopper and a pass-rusher, so his absence could impact the Saints’ ability to stop the run. Gurley and C.J. Anderson trampled a supposedly great DAL run defense last week, albeit with some help. With Rankins out, it wouldn't be all that surprising if the Rams have more success running the ball than they did back in Week 9.
While the Rams' running attack could be better in this rematch, the Rams passing attack with QB Jared Goff could be worse. The Rams are averaging 276.1 passing YPG (rank #%), and 7.9 YPA (rank #3). Goff is completing 64.9% of his passes with 8.4 YPA (32 TDs and 12 picks. FO ranks Goff #6 among NFL QBs. Goff struggled early in that Week 9 battle with the Saints, but he also led that big comeback. He finished 28-of-40 for 391 yards, 3 TDs and 1 pick.
Although the Saints are weaker against the pass, Goff could struggle more this time because of WR Cooper Kupp's absence. Kupp (40 catches for 566 yards and 7 TDs in 8 games) was Goff's favorite receiver, and Goff ‘s been noticeably worse without him. With Cupp in the lineup, Goff was completing 71.8% of his passes for 2,436 yards , with 9.94 YPA, 17 TDs, and 5 picks. Without Cupp, Goff’s completion rate dropped to 53% for 2,438 yards , 6.37 YPA, 15 TDs, and 7 picks. Goff played like an MVP with Kupp in the lineup, and he's been mediocre without him. Cupp had a big game in Week 9 against the Saints, catching 5 passes for 89 yards and a TD.
Another problem is that Goff has been much worse on the road this season. On the road Goff is completing just 60.9% of his passes with with 6.6 YPA, 10 TDs, 9 picks, and and a rating of 82.7. That compares to a 68.3% completion rate at home, with a 9.0 YPA, 22 TDs, 3 picks and 116.7 rating.
Finally, Goff struggled against good teams. The last three times that Goff has faced a playoff team he’s thrown 0 TDs and 5 picks, and since October he’s had no completions of over 50 yards. The Rams have really made a major effort to minimize Goff’s exposure. Last week the Rams ran the ball 48 times, while Goff only threw the ball 28 times.
Saying that the Saints are weaker against the pass might well be understating the facts. A persuasive statistical case could be made that the NO pass defense sucks. They are giving up 264.9 passing YPG (rank #29), 7.5 YPA (ranks #29), and a 66.6% completion rate (rank #23). Back in their Week 9 matchup, the Saints allowed Goff to complete 70% of his passes (28 of 40) for 391 yards, with 9.8 YPS, 3 TDs and 1 pick. Now those are some ugly numbers. The Saints are obviously vulnerable. The only question is can Goff take advantage again, this time on the road and without Cupp?
As for the Saints, they also possess a prolific offense. They are also averaging 30.4 offensive PPG (rank #2), 382.6 YPG (rank #7) and 6.0 YPP (rank #7). The Saints are also very good on third down, converting 45.2% (rank #5), and in the red zone, scoring TDs on 70.4% of their red zone trips (rank #4). As good as the Saints are offensively, they are even better at home where they average 32.4 offensive PPG, 402.9 YPG and 6.5 YPP. That’s 4.3 PPG more than the Saints average on the road, 45.3 YPG more, and 1full YPP more. Their third down conversion rate is 3.7% higher at home, and their red zone TD rate is is 20.6% higher. Back in Week 9, the Saints put up 45 points, 487 yards and 7 YPP against these Rams in the Superdome. They converted 7 of 12 third down attempt and their two fourth downs attempts. They were also a perfect 5 for 5 in the red zone.
By contrast, the Rams defense is pretty mediocre. They are giving up 23.4 offensive PPG (rank #19), 355.6 YPG (rank #19), and 6.0 YPP (rank #26). The Rams are decent on third down, holding opponents to a 35.9% conversion rate (rank #7), but only about middle of the pack in the red zone, allowing opponents to score TD;s on 50.3% of their red zone trips (rank #16). As mentioned, they got torched by the Saints back in Week 0.
Like the Rams, the Saints will be looking to establish their running game with their own two-headed monster of RBs Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram. The Saints are averaging 127.2 rushing YPG (rank #7), but just 4.3 YPA, rank #19). Kamara and Ingram have combined 1,528 rushing yards, 4.6 YPC, and 20 TDs. In their Week 9 win against the Rams, the Saints rushed for 141 yards. FO ranks the NO rushing attack #8.
However, unlike the Saints, the Rams are below average when it comes to stopping the run. They are allowing 119.1 rushing YPG (rank #20), and 4.9 YPC (rank #28). The weird thing is that when you look at the players that the Rams have on their DL (DEs Michael Brockers, Aaron Donald, and NT Ndamuking Suh), this team should be a lot better than it actually has been at stuffing the run. Last week, they held the Cowboys to just 50 rushing yards and 2.3 YPC. Ezekile Elliott, the league leader in rushing yards, got just 43 yards and averaged just 2.3 YPC, but they gave up a combined 115 rushing yards to Kamara and Ingram back in Week 9.
Despite now 40 year old QB Drew Brees’ recent inability to consistently throw the deep ball effectively, the Saints still have a potent passing attack with Brees and Co. The Saints are averaging 254.4 passing YPG (rank #10), and 7.8 YPA (rank #4). FO ranks Brees #2 among NFL QBs behind only Patrick Mahomes. FO also ranks the NO passing attack #3. Brees is completing 74.4% of his passes (rank #1) with 8.2 YPA (rank #7), 34 TDs and 6 picks. As well as Brees has been, he been even better at home this season. At home, Brees is completing just 76/3% of his passes with 9/5 YPA, 21 TDs, 1 pick, and an off the charts rating of 133.3. That compares to a 72.7% completion rate on the road, with a 6.9 YPA, 11 TDs, 4 picks and a 99.3 rating. Brees torched the Rams back in Week 9, going 25-of-36 for 346 yards,4 TDs and no picks.
One potential problem is that Brees has struggled recently to throw the deep ball effectively. He has had no completions over 42 yards in his last 8 games. Last week against the Eagles, Brees tried to go deep and got picked off on the Saints’ first play when he badly under threw a wide open Ted Ginn . He never tried throwing deep again and had to dink and dunk his way downfield to grind out the win. The Rams possess a decent, if not great passing defense. They are giving up 237.4 passing YPG (rank #16), 7.5 YPA (rank #29).
Fortunately for the Saints, the Rams do not have a great pass D. They are giving up 237.4 passing YPG (rank #15), and 7.1 YPA (rank #20). However, FO ranks them a surprisingly high #9. Brees Brees torched them back in Week 9, but just may find it more difficult to throw on the Rams this time because of CB Aqib Talib. Talib missed that Week 9 game, and WR Michael Thomas had his best game of the season, catching 12 passes for 211 yards and a TD. Thomas' numbers could take a hit with Talib shadowing him, and Brees might have to look elsewhere. Fortunately, he'll also have WR Ted Ginn at his disposal. Ginn also missed that Week 9 matchup. Brees will also have RB Alvin Kamara as a receiver out of the backfield, and he has a big edge against the Rams' mediocre LBs.
Another problem is that the Rams may not have much success pressuring Brees. First of all, their pass rush is mediocre. They do have 40 sacks (rank #15), but FO ranks their pass rush a below average #19 with a 6.8% adjusted sack rate. Secondly, Bress is fairly well protected. He’s only be sacked 17 times, and the Saints have only given up a total of 20 (rank #2). And FO ranks the Saints’ pass protection #3 with just a 4.4% adjusted sack rate. Additionally, when I factor in that Brees has the quickest release in the league, I just don’t see the Rams pass rush doing all that much damage.
This is a tough game for me. Because of Brees’ struggles with the deep ball, and Rankins’ injury on the DL. It looks like a close game, but I still like the Saints in the Superdome.
The Saints are the better team. Fezzik rates them as 1 point better on a neutral field, and the Saints have a strong home field edge. I we give the 3.5 for home field, the Saint should be favored by 4.5, and we’re only laying 3.
The Saints are great at home. They are 7-0 in the playoffs when playing at home, and Brees is 23-1 in his last 24 home games.
The Saints also have the better special teams, ranked #2 by FO as compared to the Rams #17.
The Rams absolutely need a strong ground game to take the pressure off Goff. If they can’t run, they can’t win
I think this game will be decided by QB play. If that’s the case, the bottom line is that I trust Brees at home, a hell of a lot more than I trust Goff on the road.
Pick – NO -3 (-110 for 3 units)
NE # KC
Last week, the Patriots played a near perfect game, opening the game with four straight TD drives. They Pats completely dominated the Chargers on both sides of the line of scrimmage. They couldn’t have played any better.
Like the Patriots, the Chiefs pounded the Colts, putting up 24 points before the Colts even got a first down. However, I’m not sure how much to read into that game. The Colts looked totally inept in the snow and cold at Arrowhaed. A dome team completely out of their element.
Todayrank #28). should be a totally different story. For the Patriots, this game’s not in the comfy confines of Gillette Stadium, where the Patriots are 9-0. It’s on the road, where the Pats are a poor 3-5 S/U and ATS. For the Chiefs, they will be at home, in Arrowhead stadium , where they are 8-1. They also won’t be playing a young untested dome team in the cold. Today, they face a veteran cold weather team with an unmatched championship pedigree.
The Chiefs are favored, and rightly so. They’ve been the best team in the AFC pretty much all season. Fezzik rates them as half a point better than the Patriots on a neutral field. I’m not sure that it shouldn’t be more. If we give the Chiefs the standard 3 points for home field, the should be favored by at least 3.5.
Can the Patriots win this game? Absolutely! How? That’s easy. The Patriots can win this game by running the ball a lot.
The Pats have a decent running attack. They are averaging 128.9 rushing YPG (rank #5), but only 4.3 YPC (rank #19). FO ranks the Pata rushing attack #9. However, that’s not the whole story. You see, the Patriots are a completely different team on the road. At home, they are averaging 156.6 rushing YPG (rank #4), and 4.5 YPC (rank #11). However, on the road, they are averaging just 97.9 rushing YPG (rank #25), and 3.9 YPC (rank #28). Last week, RB Sony Michel rushed for 129 yards and 3 TDs, but that was at home.
By contrast, the Chiefs have a lousy rush D. They are giving up 129.5 rushing YPG (rank #27), and 5.0 YPC (rank #32). FO ranks the KC rush D as the worst in the league (#32). The Pats should be able to run on the Chiefs…maybe.
My problem with the Patriots is actually pretty simple. The Patriots are simply not anywhere near as good on the road. The season NE is just 3-5 S/u and ATS on the road. They have been outscored by average of 2.5 points in their 8 road games, despite facing just one playoff team. On the road, the Pats failed to meet expectations (ATS) by 74 points this season. Making matters even worse, the three games that the Pats managed to cover were all aberrations. At CHI, they covered thanks to a couple of special teams TDS. At BUF, they covered thanks to a late pick-6, and at the Jets, then covered when the Jets couldn’t score a garbage time TD. They were on the NE 5 when the game ended. The Pats could easily be 0-8 ATS on the road.
Offensively, the Pats average 33.8 offensive PPG, 439.1 YPG, and 6.1 YPP at home. On the road, the Pats average 19.2 offensive PPG, 356.2 YPG, and 5.6 YPP. That’s 14.6 fewer offense PPG, 82.9 fewer YPG, and half a yard less per play. Their third down conversion rate drops 9% (from 45.6% to 36.66%. Their red zone TD percentages drops 24.2% (from 70% to 45.8%).
The same holds true for the NE passing game. The Pats average 281.6 passing YPG, and 7.5 YPA at home, but just 258.4 passing YPG, and 7.0 YPA on the road. That’s 23.2 fewer yards and half a yard per PA on the road. As for Tom Brady, his completion rate drops from 68.6% at home to 63.1% on the road, and his rating drops from 101 at home to 94.1 on the road..
Defensively, it’s the same story. At home the Pats are giving up 18.0 offensive PPG, 321.1 YPG, and 5.2 YPP. On the road, those number rise to 24.1 PPF, 398.9 YPG, and 6.3 YPP. That’s 6,1 more offensive PPG, 77.8 more YPG, and 1.1 more YPP on the road.
The Pats give up just 89.8 rushing yards, and 4.5 YPC at home, but 126,8 rushing YPG and 5.1 YPC on the road. They give up 231.3 passing YPG, 5.8 YPA, and a 58.2% completion rate at home, but 272.3 passing YPG, 7.4 YPA, and a 62.7% completion rate on the road.
The Chiefs may be less than stellar defensively but they possess a spectacular offense. They are averaging 33.2 offensive PPG (rank #1), 426.1 YPG (rank #1), and 6.7 YPP (rank #1), with a 45.8% third down conversion rate (rank #3), and a red zone offense that scored TDs 70.4% of the time (rank #3).
The Chiefs have scored at least 30 points in 13 of their 17 games this season. The 4 exceptions, were 27 at DEN, 26 v ARIZ, 27 v BALT, and 25 v the Chargers.
Patrick Mahomes, the likely league MVP has completed 66% of his passes for 5,097 yards with an impressive 8.8 YPA (rank #6), 50 TDs and 12 picks. Other than Mahomes, only Peyton Manning has thrown for 5,000 yards and 50 TDs in a single season. FO ranks Mahomes #1 among QBs, and the KC passing attack #1 as well.
My points is simply, that the Chiefs should score points here. I doubt that the Pats will stop them and I doubt that the Pats can keep up on the road.
Pick – KC -3 (-105 for 3 units)