Chiefs -5 or -5.5 or -6
I thought this line would be very similar to the Saints/Eagles line and it being an entire key number less is very confusing to me.
Then after that the entire world got excited about the Colts and the points....and seems to have gobbled them up.
Don't get me wrong...I am impressed with Andrew Luck's resurgence. I am impressed with rookie head coach Frank Reich (who was like fall back option number 2). I am impressed with the Colts D. I am impressed with their O line and under the radar rush offense.
But this ain't Bill O'Brien this week.
This ain't Deshaun Watson this week either.
Coming down the stretch the Colts got Ws in all the games they needed to eclipse all comers and steal the 6th slot (considering their September). But that doesn't mean it was always impressive. In the last month against non-BOB teams they gave up 6.3 yards per play to a subpar Giants offense (no sacks), 6.2 yards per play to a subpar Dolphins offense (no sacks), 5.7 yards per play to an even more subpar Titans offense led by Gabbert! (no sacks). Each one of those were quite large improvements over each team's season YPP average. Even the shutout against Dallas (off said team clinching their division) boasted a 5.2 YPP against eliminating the sack yardage.
Meanwhile the Chiefs are rested and maintained the best DVOA offense from week 6 on with no team really all that close. In fact they are the 5th best DVOA offense in recorded history. Additionally, if you remove any one single game from KC this season and count 15 against the rest of the league's 16 game schedule they still would have been the top DVOA offense.
Extra factor: Andy Reid certainly hasn't forgotten about the throat stomp him and his much less dynamic QB were putting on Andrew Luck in Indy a few years back. Neither has bend but don't break Bobby Sutton.
I get more and more confused every day with more people piling onto the piles being bet on Indy. I fully backed the Colts as the easiest play of last weekend too, but just don't see any correlation here and were it not for all the dozens of smart folks on the opposite side I'd have said this is as easy a points lay as it was picking Indy to win last week.