My Pick: Kansas City Chiefs/Los Angeles Chargers Under 53 (Even) - L
I know these are two of the best teams in the league, but there's been some major line movement here. With these two teams it's pretty obvious the public is going to be eating up the over. I'd say the Game Center confirms that with 80% of the tickets currently coming in on the Over. However, the total itself has actually moved from 56.5 down to 53 - so I think we know what the big bets have been coming in on.. Here's a few other reasons I like the Under on Thursday..
1) Both teams played on Sunday so it'll be a short week for them
2) Let's give some credit to the Chargers defense this year. They rank 8th in the league overall and enter this game ranked 7th in the league against the pass. In fact, the Chargers defense has held teams to 23 points or less in eight of their last nine games.
3) Chiefs/Chargers are 3-6 Over/Under their previous nine matchups (1-3 Over/Under their previous four inside of Arrow Head Stadium)
4) Kansas City has been putting up way more overs on the road as opposed to at home. They’re 3-9 Over/Under their last twelve home games compared to 8-1 Over/Under their previous nine on the road.
5) Los Angeles has been a little heavy towards the Under no matter where they've played lately as they are 1-2 Over/Under their previous three on the road and 1-3 Over/Under their previous four at home.
6) One final thing I’ve noticed this season is that Thursday night games were pretty high scoring throughout the first half of the season – In the first 8 weeks we saw 5 games total more than 53 points. However, since then we’ve seen just 1 game total more than 53 points during the last five.
Which way are others leaning??