Titans 1Q - 0.5 (-105)
Quick write up before I drive home from work......
Ok, this isn't the easiest bet to make considering I'm laying half a digit with a horrid offense against a solid and possibly re-motivated defense. So shrinking the game doesn't feel like it would do me any favors. But, obviously Tennessee is playing for more. There is no excuse for their urgency level not to be sky high (at least higher than Jax). Especially after they were resuscitated with their 4Q comeback vs the Jets. I'm looking for a 1Q carry over from last game in both momentum and emotion for Tennessee at home. Jags had a strong defensive performance last week at home, but traveling on the road on a short week in a meaningless game for them, I'm not expecting the same urgency and carry over from last week.
ML is too pricey here - not trying to lay an extra 70 cents here to salvage a push. I'd rather risk the L in a tie game after 1Q. At -105 I only need to hit 51.3% to break even long term.
On the other side of things, Jags only mustered up 6 pts all game at home vs colts. Against a better defense on short rest with Kessler on the road, I'm not expecting much improvement
Hope I'm a help.