I knew the type of unreal year we have had was unsustainable (70% plus).. unfortunately, that reality came true last week. Still a VERY profitable year.. let’s add to it this week.
Appreciate the awesome feedback during a tough week 11!
3* Minnesota Vikings -3 -120 *WINNER*
- The Vikings have not been near the team they were last year, mostly due to a defense that has regressed from a great defense into a good defense, and also because of a porous offensive line that the Packers can not expose, especially without their best defensive player, Mike Daniels. If you can’t control the LOS against Minnesota’s offense, you are in huge trouble covering their wideouts. Green Bay has allowed an average of 28.3 PPG against offenses aside from the Bills/Dolphins. Meanwhile, the Packers have two players on offense next to Rodgers. Adams will be covered by Rhodes, one of the top corners in the league. Aaron Jones is the other player, but he will be going against the leagues 4th best run defense. One thing that I believe is still true is the Vikings being a different team at home. They are 26-12-1 ATS at home under Zimmer, which is a dominant 68.4%. Packers are 0-5 SU on the road this season, including losses on the road to inferior Redskins, Lions, and Seahawks teams. The Seahawks closed -3 at home against Green Bay, and my numbers show a clear difference in Seattle and Minnesota. This line is implying these teams are equal, which is far from the truth.
2* Detroit Lions +4 -110 *LOSER*
- I have the game lined -2.5 -120 for Chicago.. WITH Trubisky, who I don’t expect to play. Add the fact that the bears are in a terrible scheduling spot, playing a Thursday morning road game after playing on Sunday night, plus being off their biggest win of the season. The bears have been inconsistent on the road against some bad teams (MIA/ARI). We get a good situation, plus line value on the dog. Two weeks ago you could have gotten Chicago -6.5.. at hone against detroit.
2* Carolina Panthers -3 -120 *LOSER*
- Carolina is power rated as the better team according to my numbers. I like the spot, as the better team off twin straight losses. I also like the fact that Carolina has won TEN games in a row at home, and Seatte is a much different team on the road that is now playing at 10:00 body clock time.
2* Giants/Eagles O46 -110 *WINNER*
- The Eagles are a dead nuts over team, playing pass funnel defense with 5-6 cornerbacks hurt, now having to face a giants offense that has scored 24 PPG Over their last six games.. yet they somehow have an implied total of 20 in this game. Eli had success against a much stronger eagles defense last year, without the same weapons. Meanwhile, the Eagles offensive focus has to be on offense, and they do have the weapons and quarterback to attack a terrible giants defense that is atrocious at stopping tight ends (Zach ertz!)
2* Tennessee Titans +6.5 -110 *LOSER*
- I have the Texans rated as the slightly better team. I believe the line should be Texans -4, yet we are getting 6.5 with the Titans. The Texans are on a 7 game win streak, but are not as good as their record. Five of those wins they were the benefactors of many 50/50 games (vs Indy/Wash/Dal/Buf/Den). They are not the team you want to trust when it comes to winning by margin. The titans defensive front has a big edge against this porous Texans offensive line, and the Texans since losing Fuller are way too reliant on their only good pass catcher (Hopkins, and no, I don’t consider DT a good WR anymore). Expecting a low scoring game where I wouldn’t be stunned if the Titans won outright.