Let’s keep the momentum going.. as many of you know I am in the LVSC this year.. sitting in 12th at 34.5 PTS.. probably will be the most locked in I’ve ever been the next few weeks six let’s hope it leads to winning bets.. although those numbers are different, meaning I won’t be picking all of my bets in the contest
FYI: Bought back Pitt -5 with Jags +5.5. Obviously, most followers know this doesn't happen often, but Pitt is only a lean at this point. I do THINK their motivation will be strong, but there’s also a CHANCE it is a schematic edge for the Jags, and there really is no line value after the look ahead was -3.
3* Minnesota Vikings +3 -110 *LOSER*
- I have a strong lean that the Vikings will win this game outright. So of course, I love them getting 3 points. The Bears YTD have played one winning team all year, which was a home loss to the Patriots. They are an above average, solid team, but this is a big step up in class and they would NOT be 6-3 if not for a cupcake schedule. I have the game lined Bears -1, and the Vikings get the benefit of coming off a bye which should be getting their defense, offensive line, Diggs, and Cook healthy. I do not buy Trubisky yet. I do buy the offensive scheme of the Bears, but against an elite defensive mind like Zimmer, you are going to need more then scheme.
2* Bengals/Ravens U44.5 -110 *LOSER*
- This handicap is all about both teams mentality’s. Baltimore has two Mobile raw passing quarterbacks, and will likely be seeing a dip of about 10 passing attempts off their average in this one. Even with how pass heavy the Ravens have been this season, 6 of their last 7 games have went under 44.5 Points. Cincinnati’s offense has scored 13,10,21,37,14 Points in their last five games, but their games have went over due to a terrible defense. They fired DC Teryl Austin this week, which historically leads to a bump in effectiveness from the unit where the coordinator was fired. Andy Dalton’s splits with and without AJG are a huge negative for the Bengals. I see a run heavy, ball control approach for Baltimore coming, with a defense that should hold the Bengals to 17 points or less.
2* Houston Texans -2.5 -120 *LOSER*
- I am looking for a spot to fade the Redskins. This team is 6-3, but is a well below average team, mostly because of an offense that can't throw the ball, has cluster injuries to their WR core and especially their offensive line, which has turned them into a poor running team personnel wise. The Bucs defense (leading the league in PPG allowed) held them to 16 points, and the Redskins were nearly doubled in yardage. The Texans are coming off a bye, and O'Brien is 4-0 ATS in that role, covering by an average of 11 PPG. The Texans play stout run defense, so they should be able to dominate Washington in the trenches, and they also might be getting back CB Jonathan Joseph and CB Aaron Colvin from injury, which would be a huge boost. The Redskins do have a solid defense, but I can't envision the Redskins offense doing anything, while Watson and this offense will get theirs against any defense.
2* Philly Eagles +8.5 -110 *LOSER*
- get the defending champs in a role they FLOURISHED in last year: Underdog. Key injuries to their DB’s, but LT and DE Inj have went under the radar for NO. Phi offense with a plus matchup, leaving backdoor
open, can NO salt away game running vs that front?
2* LA Chargers -6.5 -110 *LOSER*
- PR higher over the key number of 7, plus we get to fade a Denver team that has been AWFUL on the road ATS/SU under Vance Joseph. The Chargers have quietly been an ELITE team over a 22 game sample size, going 18-4 SU with the four losses being to KC X2, NE, LAR. They have taken care of business in all their "trap games" against way inferior opponents (CLE/OAK X2/BUF), with the lone close game being against SF.
2* Arizona Cardinals -3.5 -110 *LOSER*
- The Cardinals are still fighting while Oakland is a tanking team. I have the Cardinals about 3 points better on a neutral field. Oakland is 1-8-1 ATS their last ten road games. Carr has one of the worst (if not the worst, stats not infront of me) QBR against pressure, while Arizona sacked Mahomes 5 Times and blitzes at a top 10 rate. Oak also lacks weapons to separate from ARI tight man coverage blitz heavy scheme. Leftwich= Huge upgrade at OC for ARI.
2* KC Chiefs +3.5 -110 *WINNER*
- Perception has the Rams as the better team, but I have the two teams dead equal, and LAR only gets 2.5 for HFA BEFORE the wild fire distractions that have thence practicing in Colorado until Saturday.