I have been very selective with these big bets.. 4-0 YTD winners on BAL -3 vs BUF, MIN -4.5 vs SF, NE -10 vs INDY, and ATL -3 vs TB.
FYI.. I LIKE the Packers at -9.5, but I have a nice sum of cash on a look ahead at -6, which is why it will not be a play.
3* Steelers -4 -105: *WINNER*
CAR quietly one of biggest home/road splits in NFL (1-5 SU road run, with one win a game they were down 17-0 in the fourth. They have won 9 straight home games). Home teams on TNF have been money, so we get a very good home team against a struggling road team on a very short week. Pitt has some line value along with matchup edges. Their defense is third in the NFL in sacks after finishing 1st last season, and have improved very much since Joe Haden returned. The Panthers have a below average pass rush and the Steelers pass game weapons pose some problems for this Panthers secondary. We also have some line value, as I have the game lined Steelers -5.
2* Detroit Lions +7 -110 *LOSER*
- Detroit just last week was +4.5 at a clearly superior Minnesota team that has a way superior HFA. Look ahead was CHI -3.5. Detroit looked bad, but not bad enough to warrent this major adjustment. Power rated Det +4.5
2* Colts -2.5 -115 *WINNER*
- Two teams going in opposite directions. Indy has AVG 34 PPG L4 Games, while Jax has AVG 14PPG. Luck is 27-13 SU at home, Bortles 8-27 SU on the road. Bouye being out for Jax leaves their vaunted secondary them with only 1 quality CB. Jags have been outscored by 14.7 PPG on the road. Colts offense reaches red zone 40% Of drives, only kc LAR and saints better, while this Jags O is 30th in points per play. Reid/Pederson had big days against This D, and Reich is part of that coaching tree.
Colts also best team at not allowing big 20+ yard pass plays, so you need to score in red zone. Bortles second worst in red zone this year completions percentage ahead of only Josh Allen
2* LA Chargers -9.5 -110 *WINNER*
- Laying this much on the road is not something I make a habit of, but my numbers actually have value fading OAK, which gives us a rare chance to get line value fading a defense that is on pace to allow the most YPP in NFL History that just cut their best pass rusher. The Chargers are the best team in the NFL in YPP differential, the Raiders are the worst, and HFA has been minimal for Oakland, as they have allowed 38 PPG at home this season. LAC have taken care of the the pathetic Bills and a bad Browns team on the road and won by margin. This team is a small step below elite, as they are on a 17-4 SU run with the four losses coming to KC X2, LAR, NE. They have blown out this raiders team twice in a row, including once this year. Oakland could be a dead team that has given up, making them a no play or fade the entire season
2* Seattle Seahawks +10 -110 *WINNER*
- SEA has only lost 3 of their last 116 games by more then ten points. They have a great formula to cover he the big number.. control the clock with a good running game against a bad run defense, a great qb who could backdoor them, and a decent defense. The oddsmakers haven’t stopped with the point spread tax on the rams.. and it’s mattered, as they are 5-1 SU their last 6 but only 1-4-1 ATS. Power rated LAR -8.5.. I think it’ll close around that number.
2* New York Giants +3.5 -115 *WINNER*
- This was a strong Lean at 3. How in the world can Mullens be laying 3.5 after getting 1.5 at home to OAK last week? This may be one game the Giants actually have the superior QB, way superior weapons, and a similarly bad defense. PR SF -2.5. Giants are on a 7-4 ATS run as a road dog, while SF has been a TERRIBLE home favorite, and has only won two games without Jimmy G in the last two years, which were against the 3-13 2017 Giants and the Tanking Oakland Raiders. Yes, the Giants are terrible, but how is Nick Mullens going to cover margin?