253 Los Angeles Chargers -1: WIN
Queue the "Hip to Be Square" song. I am on the square side here, but here is my rationale...
CLE has played each of their first five games in high pressure, one possession games, including 3 OT games. This is not only physically draining, but emotionally draining as well. CLE beat division rival, BAL in OT last week. This is a tear the goal posts down kind of game for CLE. Now, they need to refocus and get ready to play an underrated LAC team.
While CLE has been expending all of this emotional and physical energy, LAC has left the state of California just once going back to August 15th. Here is a look at LAC's travel schedule so far this season:
Aug 11, 2018 |
@ Arizona |
PRE |
Aug 18, 2018 |
vs Seattle |
PRE |
Aug 25, 2018 |
vs New Orleans |
PRE |
Aug 30, 2018 |
@ San Francisco |
PRE |
Sep 9, 2018 |
vs Kansas City |
REG |
Sep 16, 2018 |
@ Buffalo |
REG |
Sep 23, 2018 |
@ LA Rams |
REG |
Sep 30, 2018 |
vs San Francisco |
REG |
Oct 7, 2018 |
vs Oakland |
REG |
LAC comes into this one off an easy victor over rival OAK. And LAC is as well-rested at this stage of the season as any team in the league.
While the travel certainly favors LAC, the Chargers are still a tough team to figure out right now. Their only two losses have come at the hands of arguably the two best teams in the NFL: KC and LAR. LAC has won their other games. But those three wins have come against some of the league's worst teams: BUF, SF (no Garoppolo) and OAK. Despite this strange split between losing to the NFL's elite and beating the NFL's worst, we know that Rivers has been playing at a very high level.
I like Rivers and the LAC offense to outpace Mayfield and CLE's drained team.
256 Miami Dolphins +3: WIN
2 TM 7 PT Teaser: 255 Chicago Bears +1.5, 252 Minnesota Vikings -3: LOSS
Long before I was fortunate enough to be a part of Pregame, I was an avid listener of the Dream Pod (and the many other radio shows/podcasts that RJ, Fezzik and the other Pregame Pros do). As a general rule of thumb, I NEVER bet against RJ. I may not bet with him, but I never bet against him. This strategy has served me well over the years and has helped me to become a more profitable bettor.
On Wednesday, Matty Holt wasn't able to attend the Dream Pod so I moved from my normal production room chair to a chair at the wiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiise guy round table. We went through the normal Green $ Button recap. RJ made $300 from the other wise guys last week. And he asked me to comment on how he has done this year with the Green $ Button bets. I said something to the tune of, "if any of the listeners are actually listening, they will have learned that betting against RJ is a bad idea." 5 minutes later... I find myself betting against RJ.
I was in a dilemma! I had already selected MIA +3 for Pregame's Supercontest. So, I knew I had to break one of my rules: bet against RJ. Or, go back on a bet I was going to post in my NFL Week 6 Forum Thread. Put me down for $100 against RJ.
As for the game...
CHI is overrated in my opinion. Trubisky lit up TB in Week 4 and that's the last we saw him. Trubisky played well and him and Nagy seem to really be meshing. But, TB's defense is near the bottom (if not THE bottom) in the league.
The look ahead line for this game from Westgate was Pick. What would this line be had MIA won as 6-point underdogs last week in CIN? MIA was the heavy favorite to win that game after they built a 17-0 lead. Had it not been for a late-game melt down and two defensive scores by CIN, this line would be much different than the CHI -3 we are seeing.
The accepted risk in this one is that we get a beat up MIA team (missing two starting OL and potentially three starting DL) against a well-rested CHI team off a bye.
This is Maki vs. RJ--not exactly what you'd expect to be a fair fight. But I like our chances!
Adding a teaser that includes CHI to account for late Tannehill news.
261 Pittsburgh Steelers +2.5: WIN
262 PIT/CIN UN 53: WIN
CIN has been on the right side of three "coin flip" games this season. Week 1, IND was marching down the field to win the game late against CIN when CIN forced a fumble and returned it for a TD to win the game. Week 4, CIN marches down the field in the last minute to score against an injury-depleted ATL team. And in Week 5, as we mentioned in our MIA write-up, CIN came back from a 17-point deficit and scored two defensive touchdowns in the 4th quarter to win (and cover) against MIA. What would this spread be if CIN were 1-4 or 2-3 instead of 4-1?
PIT 24-5 SU last 29 against CIN. PIT 21-8 last 29 ATS against CIN. PIT 7-0 SU (6-1 ATS) when playing against CIN when CIN has the better record between the two teams. Big Ben 25-4-1 SU in Ohio.
I'll take the better team getting points.
CIN will once again be without Tyler Eifert this week. But what hurts CIN's offense even more is that they'll be without backup TE, Tyler Kroft this week. How effective will CIN be running the ball without their top two TEs? Also, CIN will be without Giovani Bernard. With the beat up CIN offensive group and with a PIT defense that finally put together a good performance, I like CIN's scoring to stay down.
PIT's offense put together their most complete game last week against ATL. Big Ben was very good. The running game was very good. And PIT rolled. But, who was that against? It was against a very beat-up defense. CIN's defense is as healthy as any defensive unit in the league and they just got Burfict back. I expect PIT to be able to move the ball. But in this rivalry game, I expect that yards will be tougher to come by than what we've seen so far this season. I will play Under this high total of 53.
264 Atlanta Falcons -3.5: WIN
Working at Pregame has been a dream. Getting to work alongside the best minds in sports handicapping has been a privilege. I would not have been on ATL here had it not been for the discussions that we had about this game at Pregame.
This battered ATL team has had a rough time stopping teams since Week 3. We capitalized on this last week, betting PIT -3.
This week, however, we will back ATL -3.5 hosting TB. This was RJ's best bet for the Supercontest and here are the nuggets we've gathered on this game throughout this week. First, let's talk ATL injuries. ATL's injuries have been well-documented this year. CB Ricardo Allen out for year, G Andy Levitre out for year, S Keanu Neal out for year, and LB Deion Jones on I.R. A point discussed on the Dream Pod is that in the first game(s) when these injuries occur, teams have a much tougher time staying competitive. Why? New players are forced to play and this hurts in two ways. #1, the new players don't see the field as often and are taking on an increased role that they're not used to. #2, the new players don't have the same level of cohesion as the first unit players--it takes time to build chemistry.
ATL is now in the 5th week (depending on the timing of the injury) of playing with their back-ups as starters. These players will only get more comfortable in their new roles. And will only develop more chemistry as the season progresses and as they log more field time together. Dan Quinn is an excellent defensive coach and this week's ATL defense will be the best version we have seen since the injuries starting piling up.
On the other side, TB is coming off of a bye--normally a good thing. But, RJ made a great point on the Dream Pod last night. For TB, with the QB distractions, is the bye a good thing? DeSean Jackson came out and expressed that he would prefer Fitzpatrick stay at the helm. Now, Winston is starting and we've had a QB controversy simmering in TB for the past two weeks.
TB could come into this one a bit distracted. ATL needs this game if they want to have any shot of making the playoffs.
270 LAR/DEN UN 52.5: WIN
We bet Over last week in the LAR/SEA game. We talked about pulling the trigger on Over in Rams games if we see any total below 50.
In this one, we get LAR on the 2nd game of a back-to-back road trip. Playing in altitude on a cold and snowy day. Against a worse QB than last week. LAR's top two WRs are coming off of concussions. And we get a higher total? I will play Under this high total.
271 JAC/DAL OV 41: WIN
We have had very good success betting games that DAL is involved in this season. Week 3, we won betting against them in SEA. Week 4, we won on the side (DET +3) and the total (DET/DAL OV 43.5). Week 5, had it not been for some catastrophic game management/play-calling errors from O'Brien, we would've cashed again as we had HOU -3. I have had a very good pulse on this DAL team so far this season and am putting it to use again in Week 6.
Dak and the DAL offense have been MUCH better at home this season than on the road. DAL has not been the same team defensively without Sean Lee (looks again like he won't play this week).
On the other side, we know JAC's defense is excellent--and that's the accepted risk here. But how about JAC's offense? This unit put up 500 yards of offense last week. And had it not been for a bed RZ TO and a bad RZ turnover on downs, JAC would've scored closer to 30 points than to 10 points.
We get an extremely low total here and I like this one to go over.
274 BAL/TEN OV 41.5: LOSS
We are getting a suppressed total this week based off of the low totals that both BAL and TEN posted last week. BAL lost 12-9 in OT against CLE. And TEN won 13-12 in BUF. BAL's offense prior to this game had been producing. I expect them to get back on track this week. Remember, this BAL skill group is essentially brand new. They added three new WRs from last year and two new TEs via the draft. This offense will gain confidence and familiarity with each other as the season goes on. If TEN is able to produce some points, as I expect them to... I like BAL's chances to keep pace.
Here is the key to this handicap--TEN's DC, Dean Pees, had been the DC for BAL for years. He knows the BAL defensive personnel inside-and-out and will be able to share valuable information on how to attack them with TEN's OC, Matt LaFleur. I like Mariota, with his OL as healthy as it has been all year, to surprise here and to score some points.
276 New England Patriots -3.5: LOSS
This one to me is all about NE. KC has been playing excellent football. But NE is in their 3rd consecutive home game and have absolutely dismantled their last two opponents. September is long gone and NE enters the meat of their season with a rejuvenated offensive skill group and a defense that year-in and year-out improves as the season goes on. KC has been playing excellent football, but runs into a plethora of trends that favor the home team...
KC just 1-6 SU in last 7 trips to NE.
NE 10-4 ATS in last 14 games played at night.
NE 10-3-1 ATS in last 14 games played after playing on Thursday.
NE 11-2 SU when playing in the third of three consecutive home games.
NE 10-0 SU and 9-1 ATS in last 10 home games.
And the ace in the hole...
QBs younger than 25 years old playing at NE, 0-23 SU since 2001.
Give me Belichick, Brady and history laying the small number against Mahomes.
2 TM 6.5 PT Teaser: 252 Minnesota Vikings -4, 278 Green Bay Packers -3: PUSH
Minnesota's historical home loss to BUF in Week 3 has been well-documented here at Pregame. MIN -17 lost by 21 points to BUF. MIN was clearly looking past BUF in that spot and was looking ahead to their TNF game the following week in L.A. against the Rams. There will be no look ahead here. MIN's Head Coach, Mike Zimmer, will have his team focused and "buttoned-up" as Fezzik put it, to play against the much worse ARI team. From a pure Power Ratings perspective, this number feels off. MIN -17 hosting BUF. Now, MIN -10.5 hosting ARI. Is ARI 6.5 points better than BUF? In my opinion, no. I like MIN to get the win here by more than 4.
GB took a depleted WR-core into DET last week and put up 500 yards of offense. GB missed 4 Field Goals and a PAT and still put up 23 points. Rodgers turned the ball over three times last week. GB is sitting at 2-2-1 having come off their ugliest game of the season. Now, GB returns home in a must win situation against a bad SF team. GB likely to get Allison and Cobb back for this one. I do NOT expect Beathard to be able to keep pace with Rodgers in this one.
278 SF/GB OV 46.5: WIN
The accepted risk in this one is that C.J. Beathard and SF may not be able to generate enough points to get us there. But GB has cluster injuries in the defensive backfield. And GB has already lost two of their starters in the front 7 for the season--DL Muhammad Wilkerson and LB Jake Ryan. Beathard posted 18 last week against ARI (despite SF giving the ball away 5 times). And he posted 27 the week before against LAC. I like him to be able to put up 21 against this beat up (and bad) GB defense. And Beathard is always good for a couple of TOs. This could lead to short fields for GB, which benefits the over as well.
As we mentioned in our GB teaser, GB is likely to get two WRs back this week. GB needs this game and their team goes as the offense goes. Rodgers will have the offensive unit ready to play in this one. I like GB to put up 27+ in this one.