For what it’s worth, we needed a couple of late wins to salvage what was looking like a train wreck last week. The Titans had no business losing to the Bills, and the Ravens spent all day in the CLEV red zone but had to settle for 4 FGs. Then we had the Dolphins, who blew a 17-3 4th quarter lead. Everything that could go wrong did.
We’ll be looking for a bounce back starting tonight.
PHIL @ NYG
I am a big proponent of taking the better team in Thursday night games, especially if they happen to be playing at home. Having less time to prepare gives the better team the edge.
In this game, I believe that the Eagles are the better team. Granted, they sure haven’t played like it. This Eagles team is just two goal line stands away from being 0-5. However, I chalk that off to a combination of injuries and a “Super Bowl hangover”. Actually, I think it’s less hangover, and more that opponents tend to bring the “A game” , when they’re playing the Super Bowl champ.
Fezzik’s power ratings say the Eagles are 5.5 points better on a neutral field. Teddy Covers’ ratings say that the Eagles are 6.5 points better. “Fezz” gives the Giants a 2 point home field advantage. That means the Eagles should win by 3.5 to 4.5 points.
This line opened PHIL -3, but went down to PHIL -1 at most books this morning. Money obviously came in on the Giants. When the line went down to 1, we saw some buy back on the Eagles, and it’s now -1.5 at most places. T thinks there’s value on the Eagles.
The Ginats have Barkley and will look to run the ball, but no team yet has rushed for 100 yards on the Eagles, and I doubt that the Giants will either.
That means that Eli Manning will be forced to pass the ball, and that not necessarily a good thing. Eli has playmaker like OBJ, but I expect the Eagles, like most teams will give him lots of attention, and try to limit his yards after making a catch. Beckham is 5th in receiving yards at 462, but is averaging just 11.8 per catch.
That also assumes that Manning has enough time to find his playmakers, but the Giant’s OL is a sieve. They can’t pass protect. Eli should be under constant pressure from a solid PHIL pass rush. He’ll be forced to unload quicly, and may take several sacks. That could lead to turnovers.
By contrast, Eagles qQB Carson Wentz continues to improve since his return from a 2017 ACL injury. He's completing 67.2 percent of his passes for 914 yards and f5 TDs.
Wents should have some nice matchups to exploit. TE Zach Ertz, for example, could have a big game. The Giants can’t cover TEs because they have weak LBs. Ertz is one of the best TEs in the league, so Wentz should be able to find him for some big gains. Wentz should also be able to connect with his pass catchoing RBs against the Giants poor LBs.
However, Wentz could have trouble finding WR Alshon Jeffery because of CB Janoris Jenkins' excellent coverage.
On paper, the PHIL OL should be very good because they havee some great players, but they haven't played all that well this season. RT Lane Johnson, in particular, has struggld. Luckily for Johnson and banged-up LT Jason Peters, the Giants don’t have much of an edge rush because Olivier Vernon’s been out.
The loss of RB Jay Ajayu (torn ACL) is a blow to Philadelphia's ground attack, but the Eagles do have decent backups to pick up the slack. Corey Clement is averaging 4.1 yards per carry. He's also effective as a receiver out of the backfield on screen plays, grabbing eight balls for 74 yards in limited action. Wendell Smallwood is averaging 6.0 yards per carry.
It's difficult to trust the Eagles right now. They’re just making too many mistakes right now. That was certainly he case in last week’s loss to the Vikings. From Wentz's lost fumble in field goal range returned for a TFby a 350-pound lineman, to Ajayi's fumble at the 5-yard line, to Jeffery's drop to convert a third-and-20, the Eagles just kept shooting themselves in the foot.
The Eagles should also have beaten the Titans two weeks, but they blew a 17-3 lead and gave up several 4th down conversions in overtime
IThe X factor here is the crappy weather, but both teams have to play inn it. f the Eagles don't continue making dumb mistakes, they should win this game. I vet this one, this moring.
Pick – PHIL -1 (-104 for 2 units)