Attached are my updated power ratings on every team, and their rating the week before. Additionally, I show each team's Home Field Advantage (a blank indicates use an average HFA). To calculate a spread, take the difference between the teams, and adjust for HFA. Note, if your calculated point spread is above 7, it typically requires a small adjustment downward, to reflect the 4th quarter of most of these games being more of a pk'm type situation.
The vast majority of cappers use 3 for HFA. Actual HFA in recent years has been just below 3. However, in the case of two equal teams playing, I do think that typically "3" is the correct line in that situation.
On the capping front, I am coming off a historical season hitting over 60% ATS in the NFL, and I went 10-3 on my Football Releases last week. My NFL and CFB Early Week Releases are UP!
https://bit.ly/2rhziFz
Rank |
Team |
Rating 10/3 |
Rating 9/26 |
Rating BOY |
1 |
Rams |
7 |
7 |
5.5 |
2 |
New Eng |
4.5 |
3.5 |
6 |
3 |
KC |
4.5 |
4 |
0.5 |
4 |
Jax |
4 |
3 |
2.5 |
5 |
New Orl |
4 |
3 |
5 |
6 |
Phil |
3.5 |
4 |
3 |
7 |
Balt |
3.5 |
2.5 |
1 |
8 |
Min |
3 |
3 |
5.5 |
9 |
GB |
3 |
2 |
4 |
10 |
Pit |
1.5 |
2.5 |
4.5 |
11 |
Car |
1 |
1 |
0.5 |
12 |
Chargers |
1 |
2.5 |
3 |
13 |
Ten |
1 |
0 |
-0.5 |
14 |
Atl |
1 |
1.5 |
4 |
15 |
Chic |
1 |
0 |
-1.5 |
16 |
Cin |
0.5 |
0 |
-1.5 |
17 |
Wash |
0 |
-0.5 |
-2 |
18 |
Hou |
0 |
-1 |
2.5 |
19 |
Mia |
-1 |
0 |
-2 |
20 |
Det |
-1 |
-1 |
-1 |
21 |
Den |
-1 |
-1 |
-1 |
22 |
Dal |
-1 |
-1.5 |
1 |
23 |
Ind |
-1.5 |
-0.5 |
-1.5 |
24 |
Clev |
-1.5 |
-1.5 |
-3 |
25 |
Sea |
-2 |
-1 |
-1 |
26 |
Oak |
-2.5 |
-2.5 |
-2 |
27 |
Tam |
-2.5 |
-0.95 |
-3.5 |
28 |
NYG |
-3.5 |
-2 |
-2 |
29 |
NYJ |
-4 |
-3 |
-3.5 |
30 |
SF |
-5 |
-6 |
1.5 |
31 |
Az |
-6 |
-6 |
-3 |
32 |
Buf |
-8 |
-6.5 |
-5 |