Can find posted plays on twitter as well. @ThthamanPregame
8-1 last year during the preseason. I don’t count these games towards my overall record/unit count for the year. I don’t recommend betting big on these. At the most, I will put a half unit on these games. Too many unknown variables effect these games to put a huge sum of your bankroll on them. However, sometimes you do get spots that give you some value, which makes some games worth a small bet. Hope some people have success this preseason, and remember, don’t go chasing money.. it’s a long season.
Week 1:
Cleveland Browns +3 -110 *WINNER*
- Last season, coming off a 1-15 season, Hue Jackson stressed the importance of winning preseason games in order to give the Browns a culture of winning and competing. Well, the Browns went 4-0, and then proceeded to go 0-16 during the regular season. I do wish the Browns weren’t playing a team with a new coach coming off a bad season, but Jackson has shown in the past that he will take these preseason games seriously. Just by using common sense, the Browns are way more likely to play their first team offense then the Giants are (Tyrod on a new team versus a 38 year old vet), and the browns have a superior quarterback depth chart, with Baker Mayfield being the backup (who has drawn excellent reviews from camp), and a veteran with a career winning record as a starter (Drew Stanton) as the third string quarterback. With HFA being minimal in the preseason, no way the Giants can be laying 3 against a Browns team that has shown as recently as last season the willingness to play hard in preseason.
Week 2:
Patriots -1 -110 *WINNER*
- I don’t like to back 0-1 teams against an 1-0 team, but NE has SB revenge, which isn’t a big factor at all but just a small note. The real reason for this play is because NE has the FAR superior QB depth chart. NE played Hoyer almost the entire game vs WASH, and at home he’s a lot better then Sudfeld and Callahan for PHI. Line is short with NE being at home.
Packers 1H ML -180 *WINNER*
- 0-1 PAck will play Rodgers and the starters 2-3 drives.. against the 1-0 Steelers resting a lot of starters, most noticeably Big Ben and possibly backup Landry Jones. Considering that fact the 1H ML should be closer to the full game ML of -250, this is too cheap..
Arizona CArdinals +5 -110 *WINNER*
- Saints may only play Brees a series, if he does play, while Cardinals are playing starters an extended period of time to get looks with Bradford and Rosen with the first team. Cardinals seem to be taking game way more seriously with first year HC against vet team, and they have far superior QB depth.
Jags/Vikings 1H UNDER 21.5 -110 *WINNER*
Raiders/Rams UNDER 42.5 -105 *WINNER*
- McVay has been vocal about tithe unlikelihood that he plays starters in this game, and both coaches have also been vocal about how they will play vanilla due to the teams playing in week 1. NO WAY this number can be this high.. think it crashes down
49ers/Texans UNDER 42 -110 *WINNER*
- These teams scrimmaged against each other all week, and both coaches said the teams starters got great work in and will be playing starters about the same amount of time as they did game 1. With that factor, plus both teams having poor backup quarterbacks, we get value on under.
Week 3:
Detroit Lions 1H +2 -110 *LOSER*
- Bucs with cluster injuries at OL, and Lions with max motivation at 0-2, players saying they are gameplanning and taking game seriously.
Raiders -2.5 -110 *WINNER*
- Rodgers is very UNLIKELY to play, while this will be the one game for the Raiders starters to get extensive work since they haven’t in week one or two. Think this line steams up once ROdgers not playing is possibly announced.
Houston Texans +2.5 -110 *WINNER*
- No brainer play here with the Texans playing all their starters, and Rams sitting their offensive starters, having shown no desire to win at all this preseason.
Arizona Cardinals ML -140 *WINNER*
- Mistake by me to not get a better number.. but the Cardinals have HUGE QB edges at 1st, 2nd, and 3rd string plus by all accounts more motivation to win and play starters
Week 4:
Cleveland Browns ML -120 *WINNER*
- I would this ml up to -140. Lions have looked horrendous this preseason, while Cleveland is 6-1 SU last two years, with a much better quarterback. Select starters will play for the Browns, and Mayfield is expected to play “a lot” according to Hue Jackson