I know it s super early, but I personally only bet and handicap one sport: NFL football. I hope that these write ups will help you guys somewhat in the games you are undecided on, or strengthen a take you already had.
It would be great to get some discussion going, I would be very interested in hearing other people's takes. I feel like the moment you think you got it all figured out is the moment you stop improving. The moment you stop improving is when the bookie and the market will eat your lunch.
PHI -4.5 vs ATL
Very interesting game to start the season. The last time these teams played Philly was able to hang on to a very narrow 15-10 victory, with ATL having a chance to win it on the last drive.
Talent wise, I feel like these teams are very evenly watched, but the coaching matchup definitely favors Philly. Pederson and Schwartz are both excellent at game planning and half time adjustments. They are very, very aggressive on both sides of the ball.
On the other side, Sark has managed to make this Maseratti look more like a Honda Accord. The Falcons scored less that 18 ppg in their last 7 games, including the playoffs. Their defense, meanwhile has kept the opponents to 16 ppg per game. So, the perception is that ATL is a "fireworks", high total type of a team, when, in reality, they ve morphed into an under team.
Situationally, the Eagles are 9-3 ATS as home chalk, while the Falcons are 5-3 as road dogs, since 2016.
Power rankings wise, I have this game lined exactly at -4.5, which is where the line is sitting at, in most places.
I will readily admit that NFL totals are not my strength, but, to me, I can only look to the under, in what looks to be a hard fought, physical game. I dont think either team will have an easy time moving the ball via the pass, and both teams had a hard time establishing the run.
ATS wise, this game is a pass for me. I can make a strong case for both teams covering, so I will stay away from this game, and maybe have a pizza bet on the under.