Last year I wrote a post cautioning against the pro Raiders media frenzy, citing things such as weak coaching, subpar playcalling and an insane amount of wins in close games in 2016, as reasons why one should not buy the Raiders Kool Aide.
As RJ Bell says, its important to be BOTH contrarian AND right if you re gonna make money betting the NFL.
I am an avid Raiders fan, I read and watch everything regarding the team. Well, this year, everyone has jumped OFF the Raiders bandwagon. It's time for us to zag again. The Raiders have the 3rd easiest schedule in the entire league, behind only New England and Houston. If Gruden and Guenther are even average in terms of game planning and in game adjustments, that should easily translate into another 3 wins over last year. The roster is not just better, but SIGNIFICANTLY better than last year.
Offensively, the Raiders finished 20th overall in 2017, after being 6th in 2016. A return to being a top ten offense is not only reasonable, but expected. The addition of Martavis Bryant and Ryan Switzer literally give Carr every imaginable type of WR. Yes, I will say it, the Raiders have the best 1-4 WRs in the league. Sure, teams like ATL and Pitt are very top heavy, and Cooper is not (yet) on the level of a Brown or Julio. Add Jared Cook, and the Raiders have a scrub free zone in their pass receiving core. I cannot think of one single team that can say that.
Dallas, somehow, in its infinite wisdom, decided to play Switzer at RB. So you draft one of the most prolific slot WRs ever, and you decided to turn him into Danny Woodhead?
At RB, many people are saying that Lynch is washed up. Really? They may have not watched him run all over the Eagles (the only team to run at will against that vaunted front 7, and the only team to gain over 100 yards), and they may not be aware of the fact that he led the NFL in rushing in the second half of the season, when the Raiders FINALLY figured out that he is a volume runner (duh!).
Carr was horribly coached and his technique was awful at times. Gruden is not going to let that fly. I think he is the perfect coach for Carr.
Defensively, once the Raiders booted Kenny Norton Jr, they actually started looking like a competent NFL defense. Too bad the season had already unraveled by that point.
In the draft, they took the two best 3 technique DTs in terms of their pass rushing prowess in Hill and Hurst. They are both in the Geno Atkins mold, something DC Guenther knows a thing about. They also added a super talented but troubled pass rusher in Arden Key out of LSU.
At LB, they brought in Tahir Whitehead and Derrick Johnson, both of which are far from elite, but they are very solid, respectable starters, as opposed to the Keystone Cops duo of Marquell Lee and Cory James. Exactly, who??
In the secondary, the addition of Rashaan Melvin is super underrated. The Colts were super bad last year, but this guy played at a pro bowl level. Getting Conley and Melifonwu back, two rookies that were drafted in rounds 1-2 last year, should boost the secondary.
Many people point out the fact that after the Super bowl Gruden had a below .500 winning percentage. Thats a fair observation, however, his QBs were Brian Griese, an old Jeff Garcia, Brad Johnson, Chris Simms and Tim Rattay. What would Bill Belichick's record be with that collection of trash?
Gruden has NEVER had an offense as stacked as this. Literally every play is at his disposal to be called.
The new DC, Paul Guenther has always coached an above average to really good D in Cincy. Never elite, but never garbage, either.
So, all in all, barring injuries I am expecting the Raiders to be a 10+ win team this year, when you account for a much easier schedule, significantly improved roster and at least above average coaching.
Sure, a lot of things have to come together, a lot of things have to pan out, but even if only 50% pan out, they will be a playoff team. I think the Rams are a prime example of how a team can go from garbage to formidable, and that was with a QB that was considered a colossal bust. Oh, Sean McVay is from the Gruden coaching tree.
I think the fact that the 49ers, with a vastly inferior roster, and a much tougher schedule, are lined to win more games than the Raiders is completely asinine.
Over 8 wins is not just a good, but a great bet.