Mahomes could be very good. But I believe their will be an adjustment period early for him and the offense after losing Alex Smith.
Alex Smith had been the leader of Andy Reid’s offense for the Chiefs. In his five years at the helm, Alex Smith improved each year in all major categories. In 2016 and 2017, Smith posted career numbers and led the Chiefs to back-to-back AFC West titles.
Smith, through Week 5 of last year was on track to be the MVP of the league. He regressed after Week 5, but still finished with the NFL’s top QBR at 104.7 among QBs that started more than five games. In addition, he ranked Top 10 in TDs (26) and threw the fewest INTs (5) of any starting QB with over five starts.
Patrick Mahomes may come in and do a fantastic job, but there will be a learning curve. Smith was in complete control of the offense and displayed that through his tactically masterful 2016 and 2017 seasons. Last year, Smith was the best QB in the division. This year, Mahomes very well could be the 4th best QB in the division.
KC has an extremely difficult schedule (especially early). The Chiefs will be playing a 1st place AFC schedule picking up games against NE, PIT and JAC. They play the NFC West (SEA, SF, ARI, LAR) and AFC North (BAL, CLE, CIN). In addition, they play in a tough division—LAC nearly snuck into the playoffs last year. Carr dealt with injuries last year and will be back and healthy. Keenum’s year last year may have been an aberration, but he won’t be worse than the Siemian/Osweiler/Paxton Lynch carousel that Denver dealt with last year.
Mahomes will not be welcomed into his new starting role against easy competition. KC opens with four of their first six games on the road. And play two tough opponents (SF and JAC) in between. Here is a look at their first 6:
Week 1: @ LAC
Week 2: @ PIT
Week 3: vs. SF
Week 4: @ DEN
Week 5: vs. JAC
Week 6: @ NE
If KC struggles in their first 6 games, how strong will their HFA be in Weeks 7-17?
The back half of the season lightens up a bit. But KC plays LAR in Mexico City and SEA in Weeks 11 and 16 respectively.