Turkey Day Plays:
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#2: Minnesota Vikings -3
The Vikings were -3 home favorites in the first meeting between these two teams, and they’re -3 road favorites in the rematch on the road. Bookmakers’ mistake? Unlikely. Minnesota outplayed the Lions in that first game. They outgained them 5.2 YPP (Yards Per Play) to 3.7 YPP (miniscule!), which is over 40% variance in efficiency. The reason they lost was going 0 for 3 on their own fumble recoveries, while Detroit went 1 for 1 when they put the ball on the ground. Basically, Lions recovered 4 out of 4 available fumbles, which is extremely lucky. In addition, this is the game when the Vikings lost Dalvin Cook early in the 2nd half to the ACL injury. Cook proceeded to fumble on his own 29 yard line on the play and the Lions scored the go-ahead TD 5 plays later. Vikings consequently missed a 39-yard FG and turned it over on downs inside Detroit’s 10-yard line, unable to put up any points in the process. It’s hard to adjust on the fly when you top offensive weapon (Cook) gets hurt, and the Vikes never recovered. I think we’ll see them play a much better game in the rematch. I know playing on the road on Thursday isn’t ideal, but Minnesota was home last week and the flight from Minneapolis to Detroit is pretty short. In addition, this team has been waxing opponent as of late, with an average margin of victory of almost 13 points in the last 5. Minnesota has faced above average opponents like LAR, WAS, and BAL during this time. By comparison, Detroit has barely beat Chicago last week, had an extremely difficult time with the Browns at home the week prior, and beat a Rodgers-less Packers squad the week before that. Here are their wins this season: ARZ, NYG, GB (no Rodgers), CLE, CHI, and…. MIN of course, which I’ve detailed above. Here are Detroit’s losses: ATL, CAR, NO, PIT. This team is good, but they’re simply not good enough to hang with the top squads in the league. I expect the Vikings to show their superiority in this rematch and to end their 3-game losing streak to the Lions.
#3: Teaser (6.5-points): Redskins -1 / Seahawks PK
Giants are coming off a monster upset at home as DD’s underdogs. Typically, the following week is a major let-down spot after such upsets. Washington is a superior team and I love their chances of simply winning this one. Seahawks, on the other hand, are off a home loss, and facing a bad 49ers squad, you can expect a bounce-back. Seattle’s D isn’t what it used to be, but their offense is capable of moving the ball on anyone. Don’t see 49ers prevailing in a shoot-out.
Good Luck