ATL at Seattle, MNF
This is very obvious... but... really tonight comes down to: are the Seahawks a total wreck on D without Sherman and Kam? Cuz sometimes that first game without the injured star, everyone steps up without him and they get a win. Especially with their tremendous home field and magic QB. And oftentimes people can overreact to superstar injuries (that happened on national TV) and Sherman could be considered in that category. The whole worlds saw Seahawks defenders dropping like flies, and now we’ve seen this line do the same, with Seattle going from favored by 2.5 to dogs of about 1 on Monday afternoon. It can be tempting to run the other way when everyone seems to be loading up on the Falcons simply and likely due to the much publicized injuries to Seattle’s defense.
But SOMETIMES the players are so good, like Sherman and Kam, that there's no bullshit magic to save them and they are just overmatched. (Like “the whole world was on Philly and that line got a bit too high” on Sunday night. Yea, well I layed the 6.5 and then more at 7. Sometimes “the public” wins a bet.)
So I lean toward at Atlanta in this game. The Falcons are certainly having a superbowl-hangover season but we know their Net Yards per Play numbers have still been good, offensive metrics been good but they just haven’t been able to translate that into points on the scoreboard every week. But now they get to play the Seahawks who will be without the talent/heart/confidence of Sherman shutting down half the field. Missing RB Freeman doesn’t help, but Coleman is so versatile and talented that I don’t think it hurts ATL. They will look to test the secondary with Julio and Sanu and Gabriel and Hooper (and Coleman).
Seattle is 6-3, with an ugly recent home loss to Washington when backup CB Shaquill Griffin gave up that 38 yard pass to Cousins at that the end. They won an ugly game last week at a decimated Cardinals team and had a 41-38 shootout with Houston at home a few weeks ago in Deshaun Watson’s last game. They’ve beaten the Giants, blew out the Colts, and outlasted the Niners 12-9, and stole a game from the Rams that LA shoulda won. That’s it, add a loss at GB and another at Tennessee and that’s their whole resume. Put the laundry and the Wilson heroics aside, and this is not a great football team. (and Shaquill Griffin is now starting alongside Jeremy “Toast” Lane who they tried to trade away.)
Over their last 3 home games, Seattle’s offense is averaging close to 35ppg. Despite no consistent running game, and very little protection… Russell Wilson manages to deliver every single week. It’s like someone fuzed Fran Tarkenton and Tom Brady. It’s very hard to bet against this guy, especially in that venue at night.
My gut feel is that the Falcons offensive/scoring struggles wont continue forever. Just like their eye-popping numbers from last year were due to regress toward the middle, their early-season redzone struggles should also trend back toward averages and with the Sherman and Kam out, Atlanta should have enough success (which in turn might keep the crowd from reaching fevered pitch).
Finally, both of these teams are fighting for their playoff lives and wildcard position potentially vs each other. This might be a “kitchen sink” game. The Seahawks and Wilson know they might have to go ballistic outscoring people 31-28 to keep winning with the injuries on defense. The Falcons have already laid enough eggs this season and still face pivotal division games down the stretch. (And mental/motivation, maybe the Falcons still want to make up for blowing that superbowl, and will see MNF at Vaunted Seattle as yet another chance to show the world who’s still the class of the NFC.)
See where I’m going? The Falcons give up about 20ppg. The Seahawks have been scoring well above that at home. ATL offense is 8th in yardage and 8th in 3rd down %, and now Seattle has to cover them without Kam and Sherman. Let’s go OVER 46 tonight.
28-20, 24-23, 27-21… we don’t need a crazy shootout to get this one home. I’ll say ATL wins 28-24.