-3* New England Patriots -5 -110 *WINNER*
- Absolute SMASH spot for Tom Brady in this matchup. The Raiders rank dead last in the NFL in passer rating allowed to opposing quarterbacks, dead last in sacks, and have ZERO interceptions on defense this year. Tom Brady has only thrown 4 interceptions in his last 21 regular season games. The Patriots have SIGNIFICANT personnel matchups in this game. The Raiders are extremely weak at coverage linebacker, which will make it near impossible to contain the Patriots pass catching running backs, as well as Rob Gronkowski. The Raiders are also without CB David Amerson and Gareon Conley. Sean Smith will likely start, Brandon Cooks whipped last year, and can not run with Cooks. The Raiders will move the ball, but realistically may need to score into the high twenties or low thirties to have a chance to cover this game. The Patriots have been EXCELLENT in the red zone on defense recently, and although the Patriots defense is low on talent, they have fixed a lot of the communication problems that plagued them earlier in the year. I have the game lined -7, and with the matchup being hugely in favor of the best team in the NFL, I love this play.
2* Chiefs/Giants OVER 44.5 -110 *LOSER*
- What is going on with this total? The Giants defense has QUIT And just let CJ Beatherd torch them, as has every other offense they’ve recently played. While the Chiefs defense is allowing 27PPG+ in their last 7 road games, and is near the bottom on most defensive metrics. Eli Manning has been playing for his job and the offense has actually shown SOME heart in recent weeks, unlike the defense. Andy Reid has been unbelievable SU off a bye, mostly because of his superb game planning, which obviously favors his offense.
2* Redskins/Saints OVER 51 -110 *WINNER*
- The Redskins are one of the top OVER teams in the NFL, and two weeks ago, Jay gruden revealed to the media that he wants Kirk cousins to attempt more deep shots. The Saints defense has improved, but look at the three top passing offenses they’ve faced.. the Vikings, Lions, Pats.. they let up 29,36,38. They have played very well recently against the limited passing offenses of GB, CHI, BUF, TB but can still be had in the air by top end passing offenses. Meanwhile, we know that this saints offense is clicking in all cylinders right now. Both teams are top ten in rushing/passing offensive EDSR, and both are bottom 10 in EDSR for rushing defense.
2* Patriots/Raiders OVER 51 -110 *LOSER*
- Wrote a little about this total in the Pats write up. LOVE the Pats offense in this, and if Oakland is gonna cover this game, they will need to score a ton.. so I’d Be stunned if we lose the side AND total. The altitude in this game will be a factor for the defenses and expect the Pats to run a lot of no huddle to take advantage of that!
2* Minnesota Vikings -2.5 -110 *WINNER*
- The Rams are legit, but have faced one of the leagues easiest schedules.. Minnesota is the leagues best team the last three years ATS at home, and these teams are close to even on a neutral..
2* Denver Broncos -2.5 -120 *LOSER*
- Stat of the week here.. the Bengals are 32nd in EDSR rushing offense, while the Broncos are ranked 1st in rushing defense EDSR. That means more third and longs.. and the Bengals are the 31st ranked offense in third down conversion percentage, while the Broncos are ranked 1st in third down conversion percentage on defense.
1* Chicago Bears +3 -110 *PUSH*
- Bad weather favors the running team. Bears been extremely profitable as a home dog this year against much better teams then the Lions.
1* Kansas City Chiefs -9.5 -120 *LOSER*
- Giants have quit, and Andy Reid has been historically dominant off of bye weeks. KC having lost 3 of 4 wont take this game lightly..
1* Dallas Cowboys +7 -130 *LOSER*
- I know everyone, including the sharps, is on Philly. But this number is indicating that Dallas is one of the worst teams in the NFL with the Injuries they have. I believe they are a slightly above average team with the injuries, so huge value in getting them as a touchdown home dog in a divisional game, I’ll swallow the juice for that value.
1* Bengals/Broncos UNDER 38.5 -110 *WINNER*
- Bengals suffocate opposing boundary wideouts, which is the strength of the broncos defense. And from my write up, I love the way Denver’s defense matches up with Cincinnati