- 3* Miami Dolphins -3 -115 *PUSH*
Despite the Jets 3-3 record, I still have this team ranked about 3.5 points worse on a neutral field then the Dolphins. Throw in the fact that the dolphins get about 2 points for HFA from me, and I have this game lined at Dolphins -5.5. The dolphins are also in a great situation in this game, having in season revenge from only four weeks ago, when the jets embarrassed the dolphins at home. Now, the jets go on the road, where they have played significantly worse this season when compared to their home game splits. The Jets were statistically dominated by the Bills (below average team) and Browns (worst team in the NFL) on the road, as well as blown out by the Raiders. The dolphins defense has quietly been one of the better units in the league this year, holding all five teams they have played to 20 points or less, including the high powered offenses of the Saints and Falcons. Their defensive line has especially been impressive, especially last week, when they dominated an above average Falcons offensive line on the road. The dolphins running game got going last week as well against Atlanta, and Adam Gase, one of the leagues top play callers, was able to finally get a struggling offense to show some life, scoring 20 points in the second half. Now, I’m not super high on Miami this year, but I still believe the jets are one of the bottom four teams in the NFL, struggle mightily on the road, in a bad situation, and lack the pass catchers to attack the weakness of the dolphins defense, which is cornerback.
2* Tampa Bay Bucs +3 -115 *PUSH*
With Winston less then 100%, I still have this game lined at Bucs +2. We get the better team in a good situation coming off an embarrassing loss to the Cardinals, fighting to keep their pre season playoff expectations Alive.
2* Cardinals/Rams OVER 46 -110 *LOSER*
Cards still dead set on vertical routes against a below average defense.. and the rams with the diverse offense to expose the Cardinals corners aside from PP..
1* Green Bay Packers +7 -130 *LOSER*
Totally fine if you want to play the plus 6 at -110. If the Saints were playing at the Browns this week, I would have the game lined around 7. I have this game lined around 4. The packers, even without Aaron Rodgers, and the offensive line injuries they are dealing with, are nowhere near as bad as the Browns. We should be getting this teams best effort of the season, in the first game without their star player. We also get some bad weather for this game, which should benefit the Packers against the dome team saints. Brett Hundley may not be as bad as people think either, and may have a chance to develop into a serviceable starter. He has been in the Packers system for three years, and has shown a ton of flashes during the preseason with the team. I think we get some line value and a good situation in this game, so it’s worth a play.
1* Redskins/Eagles OVER 48.5 -110 *WINNER*
The Redskins are really banged up on defense, potentially being without with both starting corners in this game, and being without interior DL Jonathan Allen. The Redskins are use to shootouts on the road, however, going over the total in 13 of their last 16 road games. The Eagles are also the best team in the NFL at converting third and longs, while the Redskins are allowing a mediocre 38% of third and longs to be converted against them. Both teams have explosive passing games, and weaknesses in the secondary.
1* San Francisco 49ers +7 -125 *LOSER*
- I have this game lined at dallas -4.5. With SF losing five straight games by a combined 13 points, and the trends of winless teams being profitable ATS late in the year, this is a clear example of why they are.. the oddsmakers inflating the line towards dallas.
1* LA Rams -3 -110 *WINNER*
- Power ranked at Rams -4.
1* Cowboys/49ers OVER 48 -120 *WINNER*
- Love the Cowboys as an OVER team ATM.. 49ers with a fast pace of play as well.. worth a shot
1* New England Patriots -2.5 -115 *WINNER*
- This Line has gotten TOO CHEAP. I have the game lined at -4