Attached are my updated power ratings on every team, showing their rating to start the year, last week, and their current rating. Additionally, I show each team's Home Field Advantage (a blank indicates use an average HFA). To calculate a spread, take the difference between the teams, and adjust for HFA. Note, if your calculated point spread is above 7, it typically requires a small adjustment downward, to reflect the 4th quarter of most of these games being more of a pk'm type situation.
The vast majority of cappers use 3 for HFA. Actual HFA in recent years has been around 2.7. However, in the case of two equal teams playing, I do think that typically "3" is the correct line in that situation.
The Vikings rating assumes Bradford returns, lower them 3.5 points if Keenum starts.
On the capping front, I remain red hot in the NFL at 33-11 YTD, and I am locked and loaded with best bets for NFL week three!
http://bit.ly/2rhziFz
|
6-Sep |
13-Sep |
20-Sep |
HFA |
Arizona |
2.0 |
-2.0 |
-2.5 |
|
Atlanta |
2.5 |
2.5 |
3.5 |
|
Baltimore |
-1.0 |
1.0 |
1.0 |
|
Buffalo |
-4.5 |
-4.0 |
-4.0 |
|
Carolina |
1.0 |
2.0 |
1.5 |
|
Chicago |
-4.0 |
-4.0 |
-5.0 |
2 |
Cincy |
1.0 |
-1.0 |
-2.5 |
|
Cleveland |
-8.0 |
-7.0 |
-7.5 |
|
Dallas |
2.5 |
3.5 |
2.5 |
2 |
Denver |
0.0 |
0.5 |
2.0 |
|
Detroit |
-2.0 |
-1.0 |
0.0 |
|
Green Bay |
4.0 |
4.0 |
3.5 |
4 |
Houston |
-1.0 |
-4.0 |
-2.5 |
|
Indy |
-9.0 |
-10.5 |
-9.5 |
|
Jax |
-3.5 |
-2.0 |
-2.5 |
1.5 |
KC |
1.0 |
2.5 |
3.5 |
|
LA RAMS |
-4.5 |
-2.5 |
-3.0 |
2 |
LA CHRGERS |
0.0 |
-0.5 |
-1.5 |
1 |
Mia |
-3.0 |
-3.0 |
-2.0 |
1.5 |
Minny |
0.0 |
1.5 |
1.5 |
3.5 |
NEW Eng |
10.0 |
7.0 |
7.5 |
4 |
New Orl |
0.0 |
-1.0 |
-2.5 |
|
NYG |
0.5 |
-1.5 |
-3.0 |
2 |
NYJ |
-11.5 |
-11.5 |
-12.0 |
1.5 |
Oakland |
0.5 |
2.0 |
2.5 |
|
Philly |
2.0 |
2.0 |
1.5 |
|
Pit |
5.0 |
4.0 |
4.5 |
|
SF |
-5.5 |
-6.5 |
-6.0 |
2 |
Sea |
4.0 |
3.5 |
2.5 |
4 |
Tampa |
0.5 |
0.5 |
1.5 |
2 |
Ten |
2.0 |
1.0 |
1.5 |
|
Wash |
-1.5 |
-2.0 |
-1.5 |
|