We have heard it 100 times. All the bookmaker wants to do is balance his action, charge -110 on each side, and rake in the money. Specifically make $100 in vigorish for every $220 bet (on games that do not push).
Curiously, most Las Vegas Books are run using this model. The goal is to win each day, and to keep the house hold percentage as level as possible. I agree that if you have a Keno Manager running your Book, this is probably the proper strategy. As you take in bets, aggressively move your lines and try to balance it all out (recognizing that your actual hold percentage IS going to be below that 4.54%) due to occasionally getting middled/sided, when games land on the number.
However, any strong Sports Book Manager should be able to identify some select games where he has a good opinion on what the right side is, and he can then shade his numbers such that he is getting more action on the side he feels is the wrong side. Often, it is as simple as dealing a game +1 when the entire world has it pk'm. That small difference will ensure you simply will not take a bet on your preferred team at -1 from ANY sharp, and ANYONE who shops and likes the other side will bet you +1 (the best number on the screen). Basically, you get to BET your opinion, you have to get a slightly worse number, but you get to bet it at +110, one heck of a good deal.
HOWEVER, for this model to be successful your manager has to have a good grasp on what are the actual right sides, AND have a good grasp of the value of key numbers, AND have the humility to recognize when he likely has made a mistake, and bail on THOSE games.
As an example, if you deal a game where the market is at pk'm at +1, and immediately get two limit bets at +1 from two of your sharpest players, it very likely is time to recognize that your opinion is wrong, and look to get level on that game. In this example, I would move the line from +1 to -1, and try to get take back the other way +1.
I KNOW the very sharpest books deal using this model, and quite frankly, I think it is obvious that it is the proper one. If the betting markets is at 6 in most places on a game, and you are dealing 6.5, moving to 7 should be a last resort (unless you strongly feel the favorite is the right side). If a big Baccarat Player who bets 20k a hand comes up and bets you -6.5-110 for $55,000, take the bet, and "know" you very likely have very much the best of it. If the Casino can 'book' his Baccarat action with a 1.4% edge, surely you can take a sports bet from him with likely a 5% edge, and not panic over it.....
If you stare at the betting screen, you realize how few managers have ANY opinion out there. They all tend to deal EXACTLY the same numbers, only adjusting off the market late in the week based on 1-sided action. I WILL make a bold prediction: Sometime in the future we WILL see a Vegas book deal very opinionated lines. However, for a book to do this, they will have to have two key traits:
1. An ability to identify mostly "right sides" vs. the Marketplace
2. The Humility to identify the games they made a mistake in their early shading of lines, and thus make a correction midstream
On the capping front, off a 3-0 NFL Week1 week, I have FIRED on my Preseason Game Of the Year, and I am working on the entire card now! As always, I STRONGLY recommend you NOT buy any 1 game, but rather get my annual package, or alternatively purchase my NFL All Access Pass through Sept 12!
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