The 2016 Pittsburgh Steelers finished the season with a 11-5 regular season record. The Steelers solid regular season was rewarded with a playoff birth. Pittsburgh ran through the first two games of the playoffs until they reached the AFC Championship Game. The Patriots took care of the black and yellow to the tune of 36-17 to end the Steelers season. The season had more highs than lows, but some unfortunate things unfolded for the Steelers throughout the season which hurt them in the end. The biggest question surrounding this team is if they can challenge once again for the AFC title.
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Just a little "BLACK and YELLOW" pump up music to get you through the 1st half.
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Let's take a look at some of the Steelers basic numbers from last year. We can get back into the numbers after we run through some of the personnel for this upcoming 2017 season.
Straight Up / 11-5
ATS / 9-7
Home / 6-2
Away / 5-3
Off Ranking / #7
Def Ranking / #12
TO Diff / +5
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***The Coach - Mike Tomlin***
Coach Tomlin has been with the Steelers now for 10 full years. This will be his 11th year and something needs to be said about Tomlin. He has a career .644 winning % and he's never had a losing season with the Steelers. In fact, Tomlin has had 5 of his 10 seasons finish with 11 wins or more. Under his control the Steelers have made the playoffs 7 times in his 10 year tenure. This year's team total for the 2017 season is currently set at South Point Sportsbook at 10.5 (-135o). Judging off his past results, this number seems very achievable this season. Besides being a Super Bowl champion (XLIII) and the 2008 NFL Coach Of The Year, Tomlin has plenty of other awards added to his resume. Coach Tomlin won't let 2016 go easily and going all out for revenge this upcoming 2017 season seems to be certain. Can Tomlin make it back to the AFC title game this year and meet up with the AFC's prohibitive favorite New England Patriots and take out the reigning champions? Perhaps his twin brother (Omar Epps) can shed some light on how to "scratch" and claw to a championship.
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The Offense: Pittsburgh was by far one of the leagues best offensive units last year. That was quite a feat for the Steelers considering they started out the season without RB LeVeon Bell for the first three games. Roethlisberger missed only 2 games all season, but the last week really meant nothing as the Steelers already locked in the best seed possible for the playoffs. Make no mistake about though, Big Ben played hurt for a large portion of the season. He was operating at times near the 70 or 80% mark from what I witnessed. Then you have WR Martavis Bryant who missed the entire 2016 season because of a suspension. In his first season he set some records for the Steelers as a rookie. The ceiling for Bryant could much higher than most might expect, but his departure from the lineup in 2016 was surely missed. The games missed alone from this group mentioned is a ton of offense that very well could've had the Steelers offense sitting at the top of the league in almost every offensive category. We should probably touch on WR Marcus Wheaton only playing in 3 games before he was sent to the IR for the remainder of the season. Wheaton is no longer with the Steelers...(Let's take a look at some numbers)
Passing TD's - Roethlisberger 29 TD's / #6 Overall
QB Sacks - Roethlisberger 17 Sacks / #4 Overall
Passing YPG - Roethlisberger 272ypg / #9 Overall
Big Ben had one of his better years with all things considered. He only threw the ball last year 509 times and completed 328. Compared to Drew Brees' numbers, I was impressed with Big Ben. When we break down the QB's above him 90% of the QB's numbers just don't match up with how well Roethlisberger actually played per his numbers. You also have to consider the injuries to his star offensive weapons and himself. The clock might be ticking on Big Ben as he enters his 14th season, but something tells me Big Ben comes back in 2017 and increases the small sample of stats above.
****We can't talk about the offense and not mention Antonio Brown and how important and dynamic of a player he is for this Steelers team.
Brown finished #2 in the league only behind Larry Fitzgerald in total catches with 106. If you do the basic math, that's just a few catches shy of receiving 1/3 of the total completed passes from Roethlisberger. As the year's have gone on Antonio Brown basically is impossible to guard. (Check out his numbers from 2016)
Targets - 155 / #5 Overall
Recep - 106 / #2 Overall
Yards - 1,284 / #5 Overall
Rec TD - 12 / #2 Overall
Rec 20+yd - 22 / #3 Overall
YAC - 411 / #16 Overall
Turnovers - 0
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The next guy deserves his own anthem - RB Le'Veon Bell
This guy packs the thunder and lightning. Last year even though he missed the first 3 games of the season due to suspension, he still managed to finish near the top of the charts in season stats. Bell also sat out the final game of the year as well. I've seen every back in the NFL for the last few years naturally. This guy is the biggest threat of any RB dating back to Adrian Peterson in his prime. Don't think so?...Watch him this year with a full season to work with.
Rush Yds - 1,268 / #5 Overall
Rush Att - 261 / #8 Overall
Rush YPA - 4.9 / #8 Overall
Rush YPG - 105 / #2 Overall
That's just some of the basic rushing stats, How about his ability to catch the ball out of the backfield. I want to break this down a little further to reflect back on Roethlisberger and Brown.
Bell Receptions - 75
Bell Targets - 94
Bell Rec Yds - 616
Bell YPC - 8.2
Bell YPG - 51
His numbers are just insane when you sit back and think about the production he gave the Steelers last year while missing 4 full games. If you take Bell and Brown just the catches alone, they account for 181 total catches from Roethlisberger's 328 total completions. Do the math on that. Roughly 62% of the offense through the air went to Bell and Brown. The Steelers for a large part of the season became a two man show with all the injuries and suspensions they suffered. Now in the prime for both, Brown, Bell and the additions of Bryant and others who get reps becomes the leagues scariest offense. We should mention the offensive line as well. Pouncey will be under center after he had a great season last year. This is one of the best offensive lines in the league in my opinion. You won't see much movement with this group unless health becomes and issue. The depth is a slight concern, but these guys might have the most enjoyable and easiest seasons of their careers.
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Before we talk about the defensive side of the ball, let's look at some season props for the Steelers.
***AFC North Champions***
Pittsburgh -160
Baltimore +275
Cincinnati 7/2
Cleveland 40-1
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***AFC Conf Champs***
Currently @ South Point / Pitt 4-1
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***Super Bowl Champs***
Currently @ South Point / Pitt 8-1
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Pittsburgh Steelers TT
Currently @ South Point 10.5 (-135o)
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I'll give my two cents on what I see above. Winning the division at -160 is like stealing in my eyes. Pittsburgh was short handed and broken down for a large part of last season. 62% of the offense went through two guys and they still won 11 games and the division. Not to mention they went to the AFC championship game. I know this is generally a tough division, but the other teams stand no chance at winning this division this year. Yes, Baltimore might be a few ticks better than 8-8 from last year, but it's going to take 11 or 12 wins to get past Pittsburgh just on last years level. If they stay intact the entire season and the suspensions never surface and the injury bug stays away...No way in hell they lose this division. This would be my strongest preseason prop bet of the year by a landslide. This line should be near -325.....-160 is wrong, wrong, wrong !!!
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The Defense: I'll keep the defensive side of the ball a bit short as I'd like to dig deep into the season schedule this year. The Steelers for the most part finished well above the Mendoza line. Basic defensive stats had Pittsburgh ranked in the top 8 to top 15. The black and yellow ranked #9 in sacks, #15 in interceptions and #8 in forced fumbles. A few areas of concern for Pittsburgh which I think they will be better at this year. Penalties ranked #18, Assisted Tackles #16 and Def 3rd down conv% #26. The Steelers had issue with the secondary for the most part. Young guys came in last year and they got left on an island in every game. That will help them this year, but based off the assisted tackles, these guy will be much better getting some help this year all around. Pittsburgh's LB core is led by Ryan Shazier...or Bud Dupree...or James Harrison...The core of the Steelers defense is in the middle. My gut feeling is we see Blitzburgh this season and Dupree and Shazier lead the charge. The most underrated aspect of the Steelers defense is the run defense. Although they fell asleep a few times last year and it killed the overall rankings, Pittsburgh was nasty in the trenches stopping the run. 10 of the 16 games they held teams under 100yds rushing....In 8 of the 16 games they held teams to 75yds or less. I look for the Steelers rush defense to be right at the top this year. I don't buy into just the posted defensive rushing stats you can find online. This is a top tier rush defense for sure. I don't see any holes on this defense that need attention to be honest. The draft provided them with some defensive depth and some of the players drafted might get called upon if the starters slip up. I think the Pittsburgh defensive coaches are going to be very demanding of this unit this year.
My Overall Defensive Rankings 2017 / 1 thru 6
#1 - Texans
#2 - Minnesota
#3 - Denver
#4 - Seattle
#5 - Baltimore
#6 - Pittsburgh
I have the Steelers as the biggest upgrade in the league on defense. My second biggest mover are the Carolina Panthers. The Steelers defense is going to surprise everyone this year. My feeling is the defense creates a bunch of offense for this team this year.
Special Teams: Just a few quick notes here. I'm not sure if the Steelers had issues last year with the long snapper, but they did acquire a new one via NFL Draft in the 6th round. As for field goals and extra points, the Steelers should be just fine. Boswell will be back as the PK and he was very good last year hitting 24 of 28 FG attempts. Extra points were perfect at 100% with 36 made out of 36. Jordan Berry will assume his punting duties for a third year in a row. Return game is just about the same...Dangerous !!
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The 2017 Schedule:
Week 1 - @ Cleveland
Week 2 - Vs. Minnesota
Week 3 - @ Chicago
Week 4 - @ Baltimore
Week 5 - Vs. Jacksonville
Week 6 - @ Kansas City
Week 7 - Vs. Cincinnati
Week 8 - @ Detorit
WEEK 9 - BYE
Week 10 - @ Indianapolis
Week 11 - Vs. Tennessee
Week 12 - Vs. Green Bay
Week 13 - @ Cincinnati
Week 14 - Vs. Baltimore
Week 15 - Vs. New England
Week 16 - @ Houston
Week 17 - Vs. Cleveland
Opening the season on the road is never an easy task. Well the Steelers open with the worst team maybe in the league with the Browns. That's a big help for the Steelers coming back home for there season opener against the Vikings. The Vikings are a much improved team the last couple of years and the Minnesota defense has been top notch. I wonder how well the Vikings are going to be on the road in this atmosphere of an opening game after chasing Drew Brees and that offense around the week prior. My feeling is not good and at some point the Steelers break through and run away from the Vikings. Pittsburgh will travel to Chicago in Week 3 and that should be business as usual. The Bears don't have the team to contend with the Steelers even at home if the Bears brought a "A" game. Bears will lose. The only time the Steelers play back to back road games is the Bears and Ravens who they will visit in week 4. These division games are always tough, but my feeling is the Steelers go on the road for a second consecutive week and make a statement. They will handle the Ravens and do it convincingly. This is the statement game for the Steelers early in the season. Then it's back home to face a pesky Jaguars team. Jacksonville is expected to be much better again this year for the fifth year in a row...If the Steelers are on the mend and looking ahead to the following weeks game perhaps you can get a dog cover. Jaguars won't go into Heinz and shock the unbeaten Steelers...Week 6 is a bit of a tougher call. They get the Chiefs on the road and this will be a must win game for the Chiefs. Kansas City has a murders row type of schedule from Week 5 thru Week 11...They play Pitt Week 6....I'm not sure, but 50/50 the Steelers drop this game with the Bengals coming to Heinz field the next week. A sure fire look ahead game for the Steelers. Week 7 will be tough for the Steelers as well. The Bengals will be coming out of a bye which is never a good thing. I still feel the Steelers take care of the Bengals at home in a tough game, but a lopsided game. Week 8 is a real speed bump...Coming off that division game with a win against a rested Bengals team might have the Steelers fat,drunk and happy for the first time all season. For the record I think the Steelers will be very focused this year. Week 8 has the Lions coming out of a BYE and Pittsburgh going into a BYE. That's never a good thing and looking at the Lions schedule, they will be drooling for a win here. This could be a game the Lions climb back into the division or end up being 2-5 or 3-4. I think the Steelers play tough in that game and never give up, but something tells me this is a sure fire loss for the Steelers this year...They are going to get tripped up in this game and they will be laying points as well. Week 10 Pittsburgh travels to Indy off a BYE. Good thing for the Steelers is the Colts will be going into the BYE after playing back to back road games. Pittsburgh will run all over Indy here. Week 11 and Week 12 are both home games for Pittsburgh. First they get the Titans which won't be an easy out. Then they get the Packers which won't be easy either. Packer game will become a shootout game and another statement game for the Steelers. This is the game in which I think the Steelers put the entire league and bettors on notice. I'm a Packers fan to the core and Green Bay won't keep up in this game. Week 14 will feature the Ravens and Steelers on SNF. This will be a must win game for the Ravens. If the Steelers drop a home game or two, this will be one of them. Steelers have revenge the following week at home against the Patriots. Week 15 at home against New England won't be a picnic. The benefit for the Steelers is the fact that they get back to back home games and the Patriots are playing a 3rd road game in a row. Patriots have a cold weather division game in Buffalo, then a warm weather division game in Miami. Then the third road game against Pitt a week before Christmas back in the cold. If the Steelers want to show what they can do, they will put 110% effort into this game. I won't be shocked if they show the Patriots next to nothing play book wise, but my feeling is the Patriots will be dead tired and play possum and get beat here. Week 16 is a road game in Houston and that's not going to be a easy game for the Steelers. It will be a defensive game and things will be on the line for both teams in this game I think. 50/50 with this one. Week 17 is against Cleveland and depending on the playoff picture the starters may rest. Regardless the Browns will be looking to pack it in for the season after the blue angels fly overhead before this even kicks off.
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Since we are talking the Steelers, why not a little Steely Dan. "Dirty Work"
Final Thoughts and Predications
It's no secret by now that I'm very high on the Steelers. I ranked this team #1 in my preseason rankings. I have them a tick above the Falcons and Patriots currently. We talked about the injuries and suspensions and how that really hurt the Steelers overall. It also gave the young players on this team time to develop into quality players. The offense featured names most of us didn't know at times. Big Ben had to go into his bag of tricks and use every player he could. I bet against the Steelers in both playoff games last year. It bit me in the butt after a great NFL season for me unit wise. Once the playoffs started those players like Ayers, Coates, Rodgers and James had to step up, they did. Roethlisberger smoothed out his trust and timing with these guys. Now with Martavis Bryant in the mix again, this offense will be a juggernaut. So although the Steelers fell short last year they made strides at being much better this year with last year's experience. Health will be a issue for Pittsburgh again as they seem to have this black cloud over them year after year. I hope this year that doesn't appear and this team has a chance to arrive in the playoffs 100% healthy with all the star players intact. The schedule I rated as the 6th easiest schedule in the league. Most in part due to my preseason ranking and how good I think they will be Vs. that schedule. When I look at the entire league the one team that sticks out as being the hungriest team out of everyone is Pittsburgh. I felt like they were "all in" the last few years, but they might have been short a guy or two. I believe they filled every hole on this team and now they will be expected to produce. Coach Tomlin is hungry for another title. His track record has shown success. I can only hope he stops with that nonsense 2pt conversion B.S unless it's needed. I have the Steelers as the #3 team in terms of backup depth. Which always comes in handy and helps you win those games when key guys go out. The defense is young enough and talented enough to become a real force. I've watched this Steelers team at times look young and inexperienced over the last few years. I think they grew up a lot last year and this year they will be top notch. The coaches and fans will demand much more this season. The bar is set high right now for the Steelers and falling asleep behind the wheel won't happen but maybe once this year. I can see them being focused all season and putting the league and teams on notice. They will be one of the highest scoring teams in the league this year. They will blow teams out and not care much about who they offend. It's about business and a title for this group this year. As far as the division title odds set for Pittsburgh at -160...It's a joke of a line. It's wrong and it's a steal. The season win total set at 10.5 might go to 11. I'd bet it now as it still holds a ton of value. Even a 11 it has value left in my opinion. I also believe the odds for them to win the AFC Conf and Super Bowl are decent wagers as well. I'm not much of a big future player, but the -160 and over 10.5 wagers are must wagers.
My final predication - Regular Season 13-3 & Super Bowl Champions !!