A slow afternoon and we're ahead on the day-to-day stuff, so I thought I'd share this one, and how I got there. If you want my NFL Season Package (we did win last year) you can do one of two things. Either send Tom $10,000 right now, or wait about three months and get it for about $500. Your choice.
Seahawks Under 10.5
On the surface it seems simple enough. Just pick a few teams that are going to be better or worse and let the book hold your money for six months. Well, the latter isn't my idea of a good investment unless I feel pretty certain it's a winner. Or, it's close enough that we might have a great opportunity to hedge the bet.
Let's face one fact, and that's that teams in the NFL just don't or can't go from worst-to-first as the Minnesota Twins and the Atlanta Braves did in 1991. There is usually not a great amount of deviation from year to year with the majority of teams. In reality, New England can't win more games and Cleveland can't lose more games.
Teams bringing in a few free agents and top draft picks just aren't going to change the composition of the team that much, at least in most cases. However, bringing in or getting rid of a coach might.
Let's assume that there's reasonable stability in a particular team this season as compared to last. How are we going to determine "better or worse?" We are first going to look at their division, because that is six games, or 37.5% of their schedule. Common opponents each year are fairly easy to at least get a read on because there's history, and those teams may change dramatically from one year to the next, and of course if they do the books have already accounted for that. What they may not have accounted for is their opponents.
For example, one team that has a realistic chance of moving up is the 49ers. Of course with Lynch and Kyle Shanahan they've got to be better, one would think. Although I am not a big Shanahan fan, he's an upgrade over Chip Kelly if for no other reason than the players will want to play. But, of course the books have already adjusted to that, setting their total at 5.5 or three games-plus better than last season. That may be a stretch. However, they will indeed be more competitive so what will look for is the OTHER teams in the NFC West to win LESS games.
Since we can't (won't) look at the Rams to win more, and the Cardinals only won seven games last season, the next obvious choice is to look at Seattle to win LESS. They were 10-5-1 last season and their total is set this season is 10.5. Since we have to think the Rams will be better, we have to think Arizona has at least .500 talent, and we already made the assumption that San Francisco will be better, that means we're betting the Seahawks don't win 11 games.
Remember, since they won the division they're getting a first-place schedule. They're opening the season as underdogs at Green Bay. They play at Tennessee (who will be better), and the NFC West plays the NFC East, which is perhaps the strongest division, top-to-bottom. That means games at Dallas and at the Giants, on the East Coast. They've got to play at Jacksonville later in the season, which might be Game of the Year material if the Jaguars are getting more than +3 at the time.
Anyhow, that's they way I look as RSW totals, and that's a best bet. Next.