Hello guys,
While new to the forums here, i am not new to NFL betting. I have always used someone else's point spread so far, however, and would like to start creating my own. (with the help of the Internet at this point of course)
So i see that this is pretty popular http://www.movetheline.com/creating-your-own-point-spread.php
and it looks simple enough. In fact i already saw a couple of threads on the forums here regarding it. But the questions that i have are not mentioned nor answered there.
So there are a few things in it that are not clear to me and i'd be grateful if someone clarifies them for me :)
1. In the second part of the explanation when it is time to form the actual point spread, they say:
" We add these 2 numbers together and get 47.25 than subtract 20.5 (which is the average team rating that will be used in every power rating for the season) and get 26.75 for predicted Washington points"
Ok, so where did this 20.5 come from? Do we use that number by default all season long? Do i need to calculate it for every game week? Does it change constantly (it should)? How do i calculate it if i have to?
2. Then they do the same with Dallas, which is fine:
"We would do the same for Dallas, 18.75 + 15.75=34.5. Than subtract the 20.5 and we would come up with 14"
But all of sudden the score changes:
"The predicted final score in this game using our power rating system would be Washington 26.75, Dallas 20.5"
Why is Dallas' score 20.5 and not 14? How did it get bumped by 6.5 points?
3. And finally this system requires the score of the last 6 games to be used as data. So how do i employ that system during the beginning of the season during week 1 and 2? You can't possibly take preseason games' scores and form your spread using them. So what would you suggest i do during the early weeks when it comes to creating my own point spread?
Thank you! Every answer is much appreciated! :)