Top 6 Vegas Ranked NFL Teams
t1) Carolina
t1) New England
3) Pitt (-1 point)
t4) Arizona (-1.5 points)
t4) Denver (-1.5 points)
t4) Seattle (-1.5 points)
Unmatched Importance of Turnovers
Top 10 NFL Teams in net turnover margin have won combined 71% of games (92 wins; 38 losses). Giants only team in group with worse than 8-5 record.
Bottom 6 NFL Teams in net turnover margin have won combined 27% of games (21 wins; 57 losses). No team in this group has a record better than 4-9
Carolina Projections
Week 15: at NYG (-5) … 67% chance to win
Week 16: at Atlanta (-6.5) … 71% chance to win
Week 17: vs TB (-12 projected) …. 84% chance to win
40% chance to win next three games.
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Saturday: (-3½) New York Jets at Dallas Cowboys
Prior to last few weeks, Jets players limited by injury were important but not the biggest names, so the market undervalued how badly NYJ were affected by injuries.
Dallas as dogs by more than a FG: 19-5 ATS
Late in the season is not the time to back the Cowboys.
Since 2005, Dallas in December: 15-28-1
Dallas: -15 net turnovers (worst in league)
Romo worth 6 points per game
The underdog in Dallas games has covered 66% of the time (61-31 ATS since 2010)
Dallas as a home underdog since 1990 (29-14 ATS)
18 of last 23 Jets losses by a TD or more
(+5½) Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings
Vikings in December: 12-3 ATS
Bears have covered only 17 of last 45 games ATS
Last 21 games: Opponents have outscored Bears 361-195 in First Half
Bears 6-15 ATS in division
Many Wiseguys feel as if Chicago has been coached BETTER than any team in the league this season.
(+3) Atlanta Falcons at Jacksonville Jaguars
Jags favored for 6th time in last 56 games
(5 of those games this season)
Atlanta – Biggest Vegas downgrade of the Week (-2.5 points)
Jacksonville – Biggest Vegas upgrade of the Week (+2 points)
Jags at home: 21-40-1 ATS (since 9/14/2008)
Next game after a loss: Atlanta 30-19 ATS (9-16 ATS last 25)
Off a loss of 6 or more points:
22-10 ATS last 32 (started 17-0 ATS, but 5-10 ATS since)
Falcons on road: 7-16 SU
Falcons struggle putting pressure on the opposing QB
Matt Ryan seems more and more physically limited as the season progresses.
Devonta Freeman had 10 TDs early in the season over a four game stretch (only one TD the last seven game)
(+1) Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts
Colts 19-5 ATS the game following a loss (2-4 last 6)
Colts against teams with losing record: 19-6 against the spread
Colts dominate division opponents:
Won 16 of 17 straight wins (losing last week)
13-3-1 ATS
Colts 13-0 SU at home all-time vs. Texans (9-4 ATS)
Vegas ranks Hesselbeck a 4 point downgrade compared to Luck
Colts in December: 12-7-1 ATS
Indy vs. Houston series: Home team is 7-3-1 ATS
Yates 1.5 point downgrade at QB
(-7) Kansas City Chiefs at Baltimore Ravens
Second Time Ravens are a home underdog by more than a Field Goal since 2007 (first time was last week)
Harbaugh still coaching hard, making Wiseguys positive about Baltimore’s effort level
Last 24 road games, Chiefs have lost only 7 TIMES against the spread
Wiseguys supported KC heavily early in the season (mostly unsuccessfully) … but KC lately … has covered 6 straight before failing short ATS last week
Alex Smith last 71 games as a starter: 48-22-1 SU
[borderline]
KC favored by over a TD: 24-2 SU (18-8 ATS)
Andy Reid has excelled away from home: 87-55 ATS
[borderline]
NFL home underdogs +8 or bigger: 34-17 ATS
Last 64 home games, Baltimore has won 50 SU
Ravens off loss: 29-11 the next game (straight-up)
If lost game by TD or more: 12-1 SU and 9-4 ATS
Ravens playing first season in 17 without either Ray Lewis, Ed Reed, or Terrell Suggs anchoring Ravens defense
Baltimore pass rush has been feeble this season
Vegas ranks Ravens as worst team (tied with Baltimore)
KC: +12 net turnovers (#2 in league)
(-1) Buffalo Bills at Washington Redskins
Redskins (since start of 2013 season)
13-32 SU (16-29 ATS)
After losing on the road: Bills 26-7 ATS the next game
Washington O-line scheme/coaching liked by wiseguys
[borderline]
Washington as underdog: 14-21 ATS
[borderline]
Wash as favorite: 53-86-3 ATS
(+14) Tennessee Titans at New England Patriots
Early line (before last week’s games): NE -10 (Westgate)
Vegas says …
High-point for NE a month ago … +11 points better than average NFL team
Currently rated +7 points better than average NFL team (tied for #1 with Carolina)
Patriots favored by double digits: 9-24 ATS
Tennessee has been BAD when overmatched on the road:
as an away underdog of 5 or more,
the Titans have covered only 7 of 27 ATS
Tennessee: covered only 8 of last 34 games
Mariota sacked:
15 times last four weeks
1 time combined in two weeks prior
17 times in four weeks prior
Texans fast paced … leading league with 70.5 plays per game this season
Typically fading popular teams more profitable (since public support places a premium on such teams) … but, starting AFTER Brady and Belichick’s first Super Bowl victory, in every game since: 138-103-6 ATS
Don't underestimate how quickly Vegas adjusts to a dominate team: legendary 2007
Patriots started 8-0 ATS, but then went 2-9 ATS after that
This season … Patriots have not covered any of the last four games
Pats at home in regular season NOT laying Double Digits: 28-9 ATS
Laying Double Digits: 6-12 ATS
SNF: (-3) Arizona Cardinals at Philadelphia Eagles
Arizona: #1 yardage differential (+1236)
In Cardinals two losses this season: Arizona -6 in turnovers
(Arz outgained the victor in both games – by a combined 278 yards)
Arizona has not really been outplayed yet this season.
Carson Palmer has won 24 of 28 starts
Eagles 18 times home dog since 2000, won game only twice.
Cards on road 49-61-4 ATS (since 2002)
Coach Brice Arians 19-11 ATS as a favorite
Arizona is 29-10 SU last 38 (no matter who the QB)
Losing only 14 times against the spread
Arizona has allowed only FIVE 100 yard rushers last 40 games
Arizona RB replacement David Johnson last two week: 191 yards on 41 carries (4.7 ypg)
After two Eagles wins, reports on more team tranquility. And, with Chip Kelly staying as coach next year looking more likely, disgruntled players less likely to cause disruption.
Philly Covered only 14 of their last 41 home games (9-6 ATS last 15)
Vegas ranks Bradford +1 points over Sanchez
(-5) Carolina Panthers at New York Giants
Teams 13-0 or better:
6-6 SU the next game
1-11 ATS
Carolina has outgained their opponent 18 of last 20 games
Giants: #29 yardage differential (-757)
NYG only team in Top 10 of net turnover differential with a record worse than 8-5
Last 26 times Giants a home underdog, won game only 4 times
Giants vs. winning teams:
3-17 SU (6-14 ATS)
Panthers in December: 25-14 ATS
At home: Giants only 2 of 16 winning seasons ATS
Carolina +18 net turnovers (#1 in league … #2 team +12)
Ron Rivera had started seasons slow in past (SU)
2011: 1-5
2012: 1-6
2013: 1-3
2014: 2-2
But now …
2015: 13-0
(+14½) Cleveland Browns at Seattle Seahawks
Seattle: #2 yardage differential (+968)
Seattle in December or later: 21-6-1 ATS (last five seasons)
Browns have many good players, but not at skill positions. It’s difficult to win with such limitations in the modern NFL.
Browns Dwayne Bowe: only 3 catches for 31 yards this entire season
Manziel last week: 21/31 for 270 yards (1/1)
Seattle in December: 16-2-1 ATS (last five seasons)
Seattle thinner on defense than in recent years – which might not hurt for a single game, but a significant negative factor over the course of the season … and might be the source of some of Seattle’s defensive problems in second half of games.
Seattle also lost key coaches this offseason (leading to possibly inferior halftime adjustments)
Seattle (starting in 2005): at home (62-30-2)
On road during same period: 39-52-2
If simply play on at home, against on road: 114-69-4 ATS
Seattle: 40-21-2 ATS overall last 63 games
Seattle vs Non-Div foes: 34-19-2 ATS
Seattle when laying over TD at home: 8-11 ATS streak
(-3) Green Bay Packers at Oakland Raiders
Packers have been outgained by opponents this season
Packers move to power football:
Prior to last week, GB averaged 11.7 plays per game with a fullback. Last game: 44 plays with a fullback.
Packers 10-2 SU during the regular season in California (since 1990).
Packers overall December or later: 27-13-2 ATS
Green Bay (since 2012 season)
Home: 26-7-1 SU (19-14-1 ATS)
Away: 16-16 SU (15-17 ATS)
Oakland at home: 35-64-1 (since 2003) … including 9-18 ATS last 27
Wiseguys noting that Derek Carr has decent stats, but plays much better in blowouts than in close games.
(+2) Miami Dolphins at San Diego Chargers
Miami: #31 yardage differential (-836)
Road team in Miami games 70-50 ATS
SD home field not strong of late …
3 current reasons:
- high percentage of transient residence means less rabid fans, and more fans of other teams
- team not winning
- speculation about team leaving San Diego
Possibly last game in San Diego
Four games under coach Joe Philbin: Dolphins had a total of 1 sack. Nine games under Dan Campbell: 25 sacks (none last week)
Chargers defense had only 1 sack first three games – had 23 last 10 games
December or later: San Diego, December and later: 38-16 SU (31-23 ATS)
(+6½) Denver Broncos at Pittsburgh Steelers
Only 6th game out of last 61 Denver is an underdog
(biggest underdog since October 7, 2012)
Even after a loss last week, Wiseguys who watch film were NOT dissapointed in the play of QB Osweiler … Vegas ranks Manning and Osweiler equal quarterbacks when it comes to current ability … BUT, when it comes to running Coach Kubiak’s offense, they still consider Osweiler to be a slight UPGRADE over Peyton Manning!
Denver has won 37 games since the start of 2013 season:
27 of first 30 wins by a TD or more.
(but only 2 of last 7)
(-4½) Cincinnati Bengals at San Francisco 49ers
Early line (before Dalton was hurt): Cincy -7 over SF (via Westgate)
Vegas ranks 49ers as worst team (tied with Ravens)
SF: Worst yardage differential (+-1460 … 624 yards worst than #31 team!)
From pro bettor David Malinsky: San Francisco defensive issues. Cleveland was dead last in rushing heading into Sunday, yet ran for 223 yards at 6.8, leading Mike Pettine to state - "We felt good about the run plan and the matchup. There were some things schematically we thought we could take advantage of, especially in some of the spread run game. . . .We recognized a weakness and exploited it."
Road team in Cincinnati games has covered only 18 of last 48
Wiseguys feel as if San Fran’s coaching staff has been overmatched this season.
Vegas considers Blaine Gabbert to be a slight upgrade over Colin Kaepernick
SF: 14-6-1 ATS vs. teams with a win percentage better than .700!
MNF: (+3) Detroit Lions at New Orleans Saints
Wiseguys impressed by Saints effort level and professionalism during a lost season.
Saints prime time home games: now 13-1 SU and ATS
Lions December or later: 4-18 ATS streak
Lions as road underdog:
2-16 SU (4-13-1 ATS)
Detroit ATS (since 2011): 30-48-1
Detroit struggles on road [28-47-3 ATS since 2006]
Saints #4 offense
but
More than one Wiseguy has mentioned recently that Drew Brees simply looks old.
Saints #32 scoring defense
but
New Saints defensive coordinator Dennis Allen has received quite positive public feedback from his players … expect improvement on the defensive side of the ball for New Orleans.
Road team in Saints games (coached by Sean Payton) has covered 13 of last 22. Prior 44 games: road team covered only 6 times.
Saints at home: 5-8 ATS last 13
Prior 19 games: 18-0-1 ATS