General NFL
Vegas Best Seven (by Power Ranking)
1) Carolina
t2) Pitt (-.5 points below Carolina)
t2) Arizona (-.5)
t2) Cincy (-.5)
5) Seattle (-1)
5) Denver (-1)
5) N. England (-1)
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How important is turnover differential? 16 teams have a negative net TO differential this season, NOT A SINGLE ONE has a winning record!!!!!
(+3) Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals
H/A
Cincy at home during regular season: lost only 5 of 23 ATS
Steelers on road: 14-24 ATS streak
(Although … Steelers 12-2 ATS at Cincinnati)
Cincy home field advantage one of the few worth more than 3 points … so this line implies that Pitt is the better team!
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Road team in Cincinnati games has covered only 17 of last 47
Cincy: Best scoring defense (16.3 ppg)
Steelers #1 rushing offense per attempt (4.9 ypa)
(PK) Buffalo Bills at Philadelphia Eagles
One win, big change
After win against New England, expect Philly to have … more energy, confidence, and motivation (with clear chance at playoffs)
And, with Chip Kelly staying as coach next year looking more likely, disgruntled players less likely to cause disruption.
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Vegas ranks Bradford +1 points over Sanchez
Philly Covered only 13 of their last 40 home games (9-6 ATS last 15)
[borderline]
Eagles 18 times home dog since 2000, won game only twice.
(+7½) Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers
12-0
Vegas ranks Carolina as best team in league.
Carolina has outgained their opponent 17 of last 19 games
Strong Pass D
Panthers only defense with more INTs (19) than TD passes allowed (16)
Atlanta’s defense one of three teams with an equal number of INTs (14) than TD passes allowed (14)
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Ron Rivera had started seasons slow in past (SU)
2011: 1-5
2012: 1-6
2013: 1-3
2014: 2-2
But now …
2015: 12-0
Panthers in December: 24-14 ATS
Carolina at home: 16-8-1 ATS
Matt Ryan seems more and more physically limited as the season progresses.
Next game after a loss: Atlanta 30-18 ATS (9-15 ATS last 24)
Devonta Freeman had 10 TDs early in the season over a four game stretch (only one TD the last six game)
Falcons on road: 7-15 SU
Falcons have played an exceptionally easy strength of schedule.
Falcons struggle putting pressure on the opposing QB
Atlanta: 6th best net yardage differential (+530)
Carolina: #3 scoring offense
Panthers opponents throw for the worst QB rating in league
Falcons defense: least sacks in league only (13 this season)
Panthers #1 turnover differential (+14)
(+2) San Francisco 49ers at Cleveland Browns
SF Worst Team in League
SF: Worst net yardage differential (over 375 yards worse than #31)
SF going East
49ers 11-2 ATS last 13 games played in Eastern Time Zone with 1:00 ET start (since 11/30/2008)
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Wiseguys feel as if San Fran’s coaching staff has been overmatched this season.
Vegas considers Blaine Gabbert to be a slight upgrade over Colin Kaepernick
49ers 14-4 ATS last 18 games played in Eastern Time Zone
Browns have many good players, but not at skill positions. It’s difficult to win with such limitations in the modern NFL.
Browns Dwayne Bowe: only 3 catches for 31 yards this entire season
Browns: Worst rushing offense per attempt (3.4 ypa)
(+3.5) Washington Redskins at Chicago Bears
H/A
Last 19 times Bears have played a second straight home game: covered spread only 3 TIMES
Wash on road this season: 0-5 SU (1-4 ATS)
Cousin this season on road: 69.8 Passer Rating
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Many Wiseguys feel as if Chicago has been coached BETTER than any team in the league this season.
Bears have covered only 17 of last 44 games ATS
Bears have covered only 5 of their last 24 home games
Last 20 games: Opponents have outscored Bears 347-188 in First Half
Bears have TWO covers in last 13 games BEFORE playing Minnesota
Washington O-line scheme/coaching liked by wiseguys
Redskins (since start of 2013 season)
12-32 SU (15-29 ATS)
Washington as underdog: 13-21 ATS
(-3) Detroit Lions at St. Louis Rams
Early Line (before last week’s games) Rams -2 (Westgate)
How will Lions respond after heartbreak last Thursday?
Rams offensive struggle
Rams: #31 ranked offense (#32 ranked passing offense) … 8 TD passes, 8 INTs thrown
Todd Gurley rushing decline (most recent game listed first)
41 yards (9 carries)
19 yards (9 carries)
66 yards (25 carries)
45 yards (12 carries)
89 yards
133 yards
128 yards
159 yards
146 yards eight weeks ago
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Detroit ATS (since 2011): 30-47-1
Detroit struggles on road [28-46-3 ATS since 2006]
Lions December or later: 4-17 ATS streak
[borderline]
Worse as road favorites: 4-17 ATS
Vegas ranks Keenum and Foles EQUAL
[borderline]
Jeff Fischer strong as underdog … winning 58% of the time against the Vegas number in his career when getting points [97-71 ATS]
(+10.5) San Diego Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs
Only 4th time San Diego a double digit underdog since 2004
KC Rolling
Wiseguys supported KC heavily early in the season (mostly unsuccessfully) … but KC lately … has covered 6 straight (beating the spread by an average of over 16+ points per game)
Alex Smith last 70 games as a starter: 47-22-1 SU
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Chargers defense had only 1 sack first three games – had 21 last nine games
December or later: San Diego, December and later: 38-15 SU (31-22 ATS)
KC as division favorites: 6-15 ATS
Chiefs as home favorite: 11-22 ATS
KC favored by over a TD: 23-2 SU (18-7 ATS)
SD: 6th ranked offense
KC #2 turnover differential (+13)
(+4) New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Only 6th time Tampa favored by more than a FG in the last 5 seasons
TB Excitement
Tampa motivated by playoff hunt
Tampa Bay: 3rd best rushing offense per attempt (4.8 ypa)
Tampa Bay: best defending per opponent rushing attempt (3.5 ypa)
Saints D
Saints worst defense (5102 yards allowed)
Saints defense has allowed 35 TD passes (and have generated only 6 INTs)
Saints only team yielding 30+ points per game
It’s reasonable to question the Saints motivation
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Saints #4 offense
but
More than one Wiseguy has mentioned recently that Drew Brees simply looks old.
Saints #32 scoring defense
but
New Saints defensive coordinator Dennis Allen has received quite positive public feedback from his players … expect improvement on the defensive side of the ball for New Orleans.
Road team in Saints games (coached by Sean Payton) has covered 12 of last 21. Prior 44 games: road team covered only 6 times.
Coach Payton off a loss: 25-13 ATS
Tampa has lost 12 of 15 at home (3 wins came in last 4 hm games)
Tampa at home: 18-39 ATS
Tampa in December: 13-27-1 ATS (last 8 seasons)
Bucs in games decide by 6 points or less under Lovie Smith: 4-9 SU
(no current line) Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars
Jags an underdog 50 out of last 54 games (update once line is out)
Colts Positive Trends
Colts 19-4 ATS the game following a loss (2-3 last 5)
Colts against teams with losing record: 19-5 against the spread
Colts dominate division opponents:
16 straight wins (SU)
13-2-1 ATS
Colts have beat Jags 6 straight (5-1 ATS) … winning by an average of over 20 ppg
Vegas ranks Hesselbeck a 4 point downgrade compared to Luck
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Jags at home: 20-40-1 ATS (since 9/14/2008)
Colts in December: 12-6-1 ATS
(+7) Tennessee Titans at New York Jets
Jets improved health
Prior to last few weeks, players missing games were not the biggest names, so the market undervalued how badly NYJ were affected by injuries.
Jets: Best rushing defense (yielding 83 yards per game)
Tennessee as big road dog
Tennessee has been BAD when overmatched on the road:
as an away underdog of 5 or more,
the Titans have covered only 7 of 26 ATS
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Tennessee: covered only 8 of last 33 games
Mariota sacked:
10 times last three weeks
1 time combined in two weeks prior
17 times in four weeks prior
18 of last 23 Jets losses by a TD or more
Jets as a home favorite: 55-93 ATS
SNF: (-3.5) New England Patriots at Houston Texans
Pats fall
Patriots with significant injuries on offensive line
and at skill positions
Replacing skill players during the season is MUCH more difficult than replacing during offseason.
Pats patchwork offensive line expected to be a big problem vs. JJ Watt and the Houston front.
NE limited not only by loss of players, but it’s current “thinness” at the skill position will likely motivate Belichick to play conservatively … this is a big negative since NE throws the ball so much more effectively than they run the ball.
Vegas says …
High-point for NE a month ago … +11 points better than average NFL team
Currently rated +5.5 points better than average NFL team
Pats with back against the wall
Off loss, Patriots 31-12 ATS (since 2003)
Brady and Belichick off two losses: the next game: 7-2 SU (6-3 ATS)
Patriots on road: lost as fav last week: 14-2 ATS
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Texans back to playing at a fast pace … leading league with 72 plays per game this season (71 plays last week)
Typically fading popular teams more profitable (since public support places a premium on such teams) … but, starting AFTER Brady and Belichick’s first Super Bowl victory, in every game since: 137-103-6 ATS
Don't underestimate how quickly Vegas adjusts to a dominate team: legendary 2007
Patriots started 8-0 ATS, but then went 2-9 ATS after that
This season … Patriots have not covered any of the last four games
Pats in December when NOT laying a TD or more: 22-10 ATS (Belichick era)
Patriots have 25 more TDs than INTs (best in NFL; 31 vs. 6)
(+7) Oakland Raiders at Denver Broncos
Denver last 60 games, favored 55 times
Denver QBs
Vegas ranks Manning and Osweiler equal quarterbacks when it comes to current ability … BUT, when it comes to running Coach Kubiak’s offense, they now consider Osweiler to be AN UPGRADE over Peyton Manning!
Raiders on road
Last 30 Raiders road games: 4-26 SU
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Denver has won 37 games since the start of 2013 season:
27 of first 30 wins by a TD or more.
(but only 2 of last 7)
Denver 34-46 ATS at home since 2006 (21-13 ATS in Manning era)
Raiders vs. Team with .750 or better win %: 4-36 (14-26 ATS)
Raiders 20-9 ATS as road underdogs against division opponent
Denver: #1 defense
Wiseguys noting that Derek Carr has decent stats, but plays much better in blowouts than in close games.
(+7) Dallas Cowboys at Green Bay Packers
Renewed Cowboy Optimism
Vegas upgraded Dallas by 2.5 points after last week’s win (biggest upgrade or downgrade of the week)
Dallas still have a reasonable chance to make playoffs
Cowboys worst turnover differential (-14)
Dallas as dogs by more than a FG: 19-4 ATS
Late Season
Packers overall December or later: 26-13-2 ATS
Late in the season is not the time to back the Cowboys.
Since 2005, Dallas in December: 15-27-1
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Packers have been outgained by opponents this season (-185 yards)
Green Bay (since 2012 season)
Home: 25-7-1 SU (18-14-1 ATS)
Away: 16-16 SU (15-17 ATS)
GB has outscored opponents 270-84 in the first half of Green Bay's last TEN home games. (it’s logical that Green Bay’s recent exceptional full-game game home stats should be even better since teams winning by blowout tend to let up in the 2nd half)
How to beat Green Bay at Lambeau:
Opponent must be able to run the ball
and
get pressure on QB without blitzing
Romo worth 6 points per game
The underdog in Dallas games has covered 67% of the time (61-30 ATS since 2010)
Dallas on road:
3-3 SU in 2015
Dallas 8-0 SU on road during 2014 regular season (every other team lost at least 3 road games) (2007 Pats only other 8-0 SU regular season team since 1991)
(-10) Seattle Seahawks at Baltimore Ravens
Early Line (before last week’s games): Seattle -4.5 (Westgate)
NFL home underdogs +8 or bigger: 34-16 ATS
First Time Ravens are a home underdog by more than a Field Goal since 2007
Only second 7-5 team since 1992 to be favored by more than a TD on the road
Ravens Trends
Last 63 home games, Baltimore has won 50 SU
Ravens 12-1 SU all-time at home against West Coast teams
Ravens off loss: 29-10 the next game (straight-up)
Seattle Surge
Recent wins likely adding to Seattle confidence
Seattle in December: 15-2-1 ATS (last five seasons)
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Harbaugh still coaching hard, making Wiseguys positive about Baltimore’s effort level
Ravens playing first season in 17 without either Ray Lewis, Ed Reed, or Terrell Suggs anchoring Ravens defense
Baltimore pass rush has been feeble this season
Seattle in December or later: 20-6-1 ATS (last five seasons)
Seattle thinner on defense than in recent years – which might not hurt for a single game, but a significant negative factor over the course of the season … and might be the source of some of Seattle’s defensive problems in second half of games.
Seattle also lost key coaches this offseason (leading to possibly inferior halftime adjustments)
Seattle (starting in 2005): at home (62-30-2)
On road during same period: 38-52-2
If simply play on at home, against on road: 114-68-4 ATS
Seattle: 39-21-2 ATS overall last 61 games
Seattle vs Non-Div foes: 33-19-2 ATS
Seattle: 2nd best net yardage differential (+846)
Seattle #2 defense
Seattle has allowed 39 sacks (tied for 2nd worst in league)
MNF: (-1½) New York Giants at Miami Dolphins
Scoreboard better than numbers
Giants: 2nd worst net yardage differential (-823)
Giants #3 turnover differential (+9)
13 teams with turnover differential of +2 or better – Giants only one with a losing record.
Giants one of only two teams to give up over 5000 yards this season
Giants worst against pass (giving up 326 more passing per yards than the #31 team)
Miami Offensive Offense
Miami had a one-play TD drive last week
otherwise …
10 possessions: 9 punts and one fumble
H/A
Coach Caughlin on the road in his career [60-41 ATS]
Road team in Miami games 69-50 ATS
Expected lack of home crowd for Miami … expect many Giants fans
Four games under coach Joe Philbin: Dolphins had a total of 1 sack. Eight games under Dan Campbell: 25 sacks