(+11½) Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers
GB struggles more about H/A
Green Bay (since 2012 season)
Home: 25-5-1 SU (18-12-1 ATS)
Away: 14-16 SU (13-17 ATS)
GB has outscored opponents 254-67 in the first half of Green Bay's last NINE home games. (it’s logical that Green Bay’s recent exceptional full-game game home stats should be even better since teams winning by blowout tend to let up in the 2nd half)
How to beat Green Bay at Lambeau:
Opponent must be able to run the ball
get pressure on QB without blitzing
Horrendous Lions History
Lions 0-24 at Green Bay (4-18-2 ATS) … last won in 1991
Lions have lost 25 straight as a double digit underdog (11-13-1 ATS)
GB: in division off loss: 16-3-1 ATS
Packers covered 13 of 18 laying a TD or more
Packers in division: 39-16 ATS (including 17 of last 23 ATS)
Green Bay at Minnesota next week.
Lions with worst ATS record (1-7) in the league this season
Detroit ATS (since 2011): 27-46-1
Lions as road underdog:
1-16 SU (3-13-1 ATS)
Detroit struggles on road [27-46-3 ATS since 2006]
Lions have won only 3 of last 18 games vs. Packers (4-13-1 ATS)
Vegas has downgraded Detroit by 8.5 points since the start of the season (biggest adjustment – up or down - for any team)
Detroit and Balt with fewest ATS covers in league (1) … every other team has 3 or more.
Detroit’s average point spread differential (-9.1 per game; worst in league)
(+1½) Dallas Cowboys at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Tampa struggle home, close games
Tampa has lost 12 of 13 at home.
Tampa at home: 16-39 ATS
Bucs in games decide by 6 points or less under Lovie Smith: 2-9 SU
Tampa Bay has outgained opponents this season
6 straight Dallas losses, but …
Matt Cassel still considered a 1.5 point upgrade over Brandon Weeden. Cowboys able to seemingly run bigger percentage of playbook with Cassel.
Dallas defense much improved compared to earlier this season.
Bucs 12-3 ATS last 15 November games
Vegas rates Romo to be worth 6 points per game
The underdog in Dallas games has covered 68% of the time (60-29 ATS since 2010)
Dallas on road:
1-2 in 2015
Dallas 8-0 SU on road during 2014 regular season (every other team lost at least 3 road games) (2007 Pats only other 8-0 SU regular season team since 1991)
(-5) Carolina Panthers at Tennessee Titans
Panthers good (but not as good as record)
Carolina has outgained their opponent 13 of their last 15 games
ESPN.com says Carolina #3 team in league.
Vegas upgraded Carolina by only a half point after Packers win (currently ranking Panthers as tied for 6th best team)
Bad spot for Panthers
[Panthers] NFL teams as road favorites out of division after playing three straight home games: 16-33 ATS
Titans not horrible: Tennessee has outgained opponents in net this season.
Tennessee: covered only 7 of last 29 games
Mariota not sacked last week (sacked 17 times in prior four starts)
Last 18 home games, Titans have covered only 3 times
Carolina #1 rushing offense
Carolina allows the lowest QBR from opposing QBs
Marcus Mariota #8 QBR in league
Cam Newton QBR #26 in league
Ron Rivera starts to seasons (SU)
(+7) Chicago Bears at St. Louis Rams
Rams not a natural big favorite
Only 4th time Rams favored by a touchdown or more last 10 seasons (3-0 ATS)
Rams #31 offense (worst passing offense)
But Wiseguys love RB Todd Gurley
89 yards last week
133 yards two weeks ago
128 yards three weeks ago
159 yards week before
146 yards week before that
Some Wiseguys feel as if Chicago has been coached BETTER than any team in the league this season.
Bears schedule so far tougher than looked at the start of the season – having played two teams upgraded more than any other by Vegas since the start of the season (Oakland and Arizona)
Chicago has outgained opponents in net this season
Rams defensive front is elite enough to be disruptive – which is necessary to be effective in today’s offensive friendly NFL
Rams D has more INTs (6) than TD passes allowed (5)
Rams improved play should increase their home crowd’s engagement; Rams defense benefits a great deal from their crowd in a dome.
Chicago in last 17 games: outscored by opponents 301-131 in First Half
Bears have covered only 15 of last 40 games ATS
(-1) New Orleans Saints at Washington Redskins
Big O – No D (once again)
Saints #1 offense (422 ypg)
Saints #31 defense (415 ypg)
Saints have allowed 24 TD passes (with only 4 INTs)
Washington as underdog: 11-20 ATS
Kirk Cousins has highest interception rate of any active QB with at least 400 career passes. Extremely difficult to win in the NFL turning the ball over
Washington O-line scheme/coaching liked by wiseguys
Redskins (since start of 2013 season)
10-30 SU (13-27 ATS)
Road team in Saints games (coached by Sean Payton) has covered 12 of last 18. Prior 44 games: road team covered only 6 times.
Coach Payton off a loss: 24-11 ATS
Saints as road favorites: 2-9 ATS
Washington gains the least yards per pass attempt (6.3)
(+6½) Miami Dolphins at Philadelphia Eagles
New coach bounce over?
Improved energy and performance under Coach Campbell not evident last week vs. Buffalo.
Four games under coach Joe Philbin: Dolphins had a total of 1 sack. Four games under Dan Campbell: 15 sacks
How good is Philly?
Philly has been outgained this season
Defenses opposing Philly’s unique offense have tended to do better the more familiar they become in the Eagles approach … Miami playing Coach Kelly for first time.
Road team in Miami games 66-49 ATS
When the Eagles are favored for the second week in a row: 8-22 ATS
Philly Covered only 13 of their last 38 home games (9-4 ATS last 13)
Miami defense against rush: #31 in league
(+5) Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers
Early line (before last week’s games): Pitt -7 (note that this was before Big Ben was hurt)
Pitt should be able to run
Browns worst defense against rush in league (148 ypg)
Pittsburgh gains most yards per rush in league (5.1)
Backup DeAngelo Williams with 225 yards of offense last week
Beware of Landry Jones
Landry Jones’ limited regular season playing time has been mixed – but Steelers insiders are generally pessimistic about his potential as a starter. In 3 seasons worth of preseason games, Jones played as POORLY as any quarterback in the league.
Pitt: 3rd straight home game (bye next week)
Steelers vs. Browns (since franchise resumed 1999)
Pitt 27-6 SU (16-14-3 ATS)
Browns have many good players, but not at skill positions. It’s difficult to win with such limitations in the modern NFL.
Vegas considers Manziel to be a modest downgrade from McCown.
Last season’s OC Kyle Shanahan departure from Browns a big loss (he’s excelling this year as OC for the Falcons)
Browns Dwayne Bowe: First catch of the season last Thursday vs. Bengals
(+5½) Jacksonville Jaguars at Baltimore Ravens
Last 51 games: 49th time Jags an underdog
Ravens with Rest
Baltimore 14-2 SU (11-5 ATS) under John Harbaugh with greater than 7 days rest during the season.
Jax stats better than record
Jags with a positive Net Yards Per Play … a sign of a better than average team.
Jags last 13 games: sacked 53 times (6 times last week)
Ravens playing first games in 17 years without either Ray Lewis, Ed Reed, or Terrell Suggs anchoring Ravens defense
Baltimore pass rush has been feeble this season
How will Harbaugh’s intensity and frustration wear on the team during a lost season?
Baltimore and Det with least ATS covers in league (1) … every other team has 3 or more.
Jags D yields least yards per rush in league (3.2)
(+3) Minnesota Vikings at Oakland Raiders
Oakland Makes Team History
Vegas has upgraded Oakland by 7 points since the start of the season (biggest upgrade for any team)
Oakland yardage differential (-295) ranks #25 in league
Super Bowl 37 (2002 season) last time Raiders favored vs. opponent with .750 or better record.
After losing that game: underdogs 38 straight times against such elite teams: 4-34 SU record those games (14-24 ATS even with the points)
Raiders as a favorite: 6-20 ATS
Minny Stats worse than results
Vikings and Cin only two teams with 7 ATS covers.
Minny has been outgained by opponents in net this season
Oakland at home: 35-62-1 (since 2003) … including 9-16 ATS last 25
Oakland: #30 defense (including worst against pass in league)
Minny: #30 offense
Minny: gives up second fewest points per game (17.5)
(+5.5) Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos
52 game out of last 56 that Denver has been favored
Line Feels Short
Home Field worth 3
so line implies Denver only 2.5 better than KC on neutral field?
Denver #1 defense – yards (274 ypg) and points (17.4)
Denver with most sacks in the league.
(KC has allowed the third most sacks in the league)
Peyton Manning QBR #30 in league
Must win for KC’s longshot playoff chances
Andy Reid off a bye (regular season and playoffs): 18-3 SU (15-6 ATS)
Early line (before last week’s games): Denver -7
Denver with Manning: vs. teams with losing record: 17-8 ATS
Denver as a favorite (with Manning): 32-21 ATS
Denver has won 34 games since the start of 2013 season:
27 of first 30 wins by a TD or more.
(but only 1 of last 4)
Peyton Manning looked great after bye vs. Green Bay.
Not so great last week vs. Indy.
Denver 33-45 ATS at home since 2006 (19-13 ATS in Manning era)
Peyton Manning off loss as favorite: 18-22 ATS (in his entire career)
Wiseguys supported KC heavily early in the season (mostly unsuccessfully) … more recently: KC with two easy covers in their last two games
Alex Smith last 66 games as a starter: 43-22-1 SU
Andy Reid has excelled away from home: 84-55 ATS
Last 21 road games, Chiefs have lost only 7 TIMES against the spread
Andy Reid with more than normal rest (7+ days): 36-21 ATS
Vegas downgraded Denver by 2 points after Colts loss last week – biggest downgrade for any team.
(-7) New England Patriots at New York Giants
NYG home underdog by 7 or more only one other time (hosting Seattle in 2013) since 2007 when Patriots played in New York to complete 16-0 regular season)
Patriots amazing when favored on road
Last 33 times Patriots favored by 5 or more points on the road: 32-1 SU (20-11-2 ATS)
Belichick with revenge (team beat him last time, like Giants did): 44-21-2 ATS
Giants yardage differential ranks second worst in league
Giants worst defense in league
Giants +11 turnovers (best in league)
Patriots with significant injuries on offensive line
Typically fading popular teams more profitable (since public support places a premium on such teams) … but, starting after Brady and Belichick’s first Super Bowl victory, in every game since: 57.8% ATS (137-100-5)
Tom Brady’s last seven games:
346 yards passing per game (18 TDs. 2 interceptions)
Patriots suffered backdoors ATS vs Pitt, Indy, and Jets (Pats 5-2-1 ATS)
Don't underestimate how quickly Vegas adjusts to a dominate team: legendary 2007
Patriots started 8-0 ATS, but then went 2-9 ATS after that
At home: Giants only 2 of 16 winning seasons ATS
Last 24 times Giants a home underdog, won game only 4 times
Giants vs. winning teams:
3-15 SU (5-13 ATS)
Patriots +7 turnovers (tied for second best in NFL)
[Patriots] NFL teams as road favorites out of division after playing three straight home games: 16-33 ATS
SNF: (+3) Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks
Over 2.5 seasons since last time Seattle not favored by more than a FG at home
With Seattle’s elite home field, this spread implies Arizona is the superior team.
Arizona’s average point spread differential (+8.6 per game – best in league)
Arizona: best net yardage differential in NFL (+837)
In Cardinals two losses this season: Arizona -6 in turnovers
(Arz outgained the victor in both games – by a combined 278 yards)
Arizona has not really been outplayed yet this season.
Carson Palmer has won 19 of 23 starts
Great Seattle Situation
Seattle off bye
Starting in 2012 …
Seattle has had 13 home competitive games
(defined as NOT being favored by more than a touchdown)
In those games
Seattle is 12-1 SU and 12-1 ATS
Arizona is 24-10 SU last 34 (no matter who the QB)
Losing only 11 times against the spread
Arizona has allowed only FIVE 100 yard rushers last 35 games
Cards on road 47-60-4 ATS (since 2002)
Initially it was thought that Seattle’s O-line just needed experience – now, Wiseguys are speculating the players are just not that good.
Russell Wilson sacked 31 times this season
Chancellor back on team for SIX games:
Seattle has allowed only 26 points combined in the First Half of those games
Seattle thinner on defense than in recent years – which might not hurt for a single game, but a significant negative factor on the season … and might be the source of some of Seattle’s 2nd Half problems.
Seattle also lost key coaches this offseason (possibly inferior halftime adjustments)
Seattle (starting in 2005): at home (60-29-2)
On road during same period: 37-52-2
If simply play on at home, against on road: 112-66-4 ATS (63% winners)
Seattle: 36-20-2 ATS overall last 58 games
Seattle: 20-10-2 ATS vs. teams with a winning record
Seattle: 11-1 ATS week before playing San Francisco during regular season
Russell Wilson an extremely effective runner. Usually his running is kept to a minimum. In especially big game, willing to risk more running.
Vegas has upgraded Arizona by 5 points since the start of the season (2nd biggest upgrade of any team)
Arizona one of two teams (with NE) averaging over 30 ppg
MNF: (+10) Houston Texans at Cincinnati Bengals
Home Good – Prime Time, not so much
Cincy at home during regular season: lost only 4 of 21 ATS
Bengals playing in primetime: 4-14 ATS (since 10/1/2007)
Remember that Houston knocked Cincy out of the playoffs at the end of the 2011 and 2012 season … Bengals looking for revenge?
Andrew Luck injury gives Houston hope to still be able to win division.
Fast Pace Obscuring Struggles
Houston’s offense is the fastest paced in the NFL (even faster than Philly)
Houston gains least yards per rush in league (3.3)
Houston gains the third least yards per pass (6.5)
Vegas ranks Cincy as second best team in league.
Bengals only undefeated team ATS (7-0-1)
Andy Dalton QBR second best in league
Road team in Cincinnati games has covered only 14 of last 43
Bengals D yields most yards per rush in league (4.9)
Wiseguys questioning Bill O’Brain’s coaching.
Byes: Atlanta; Indy; San Diego; San Fran