(+4.5) Detroit Lions at Kansas City Chiefs (London) 9:30 AM
Early line (before last week’s games): KC -2.5
Detriot’s stats bad too
Lions with worst ATS record (1-6)
Detroit #29 scoring offense (19 ppg)
Lions worst rushing offense (68 ypg)
Detroit yielding most yards per pass (9.1)
Opposing QBs vs. Detroit with best QB rating (111)
Detroit biggest Vegas ratings downgrade since start of season (-7.5 points)
KC likely not as bad as record
Wiseguys have supported KC heavy (and mostly unsuccessfully) this season. Though this can be taken as a sign of unrealized potential for KC.
Detroit ATS (since 2011): 27-45-1
Alex Smith last 65 games as a starter: 42-22-1 SU
Before missing last week: KC Jeremy Maclin: 281 yards on 22 receptions his prior three games.
(+7.5) Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons
TB losing close games
Bucs in games decide by 6 points or less under Lovie Smith: 1-9 SU
Tampa #9 yardage differential (+214)
In theory, getting over a TD is a good time to play a team with questionable intangibles like TB
Vegas ranks Atlanta as only 1-point better than an average team
TB defense better than scoreboard
Tampa 6th best defense (328 ypg) – but is giving up the most points per game (29.8 ppg). Typically, the scoreboard will catch up to the yards for a team.
Falcons as favorite: 42-31-2 ATS
Devonta Freeman has 10 TDs over the last five games (none last week)
Bucs 11-2 ATS last 13 November games
Last week Tampa Bay had 16 penalties for 142 yards (opponent Washington had only 20 yards of penalties)
Tampa Bay’s defense has yielded 15 TD passes with only 3 INTs
(+3.5) San Diego Chargers at Baltimore Ravens
Charges O-line has been decimated.
But still …
San Diego #1 offense in league (430 ypg)
SD offenses good enough to lessen strain on weak defense
SD #3 yardage differential (+477)
Truth about Ravens
Good teams can sometimes lose a series of close games, but the Vegas consensus is this Baltimore team is not close to good.
Ravens second biggest Vegas ratings downgrade since start of season (-6.5 points)
Ravens playing first games in 17 years without either Ray Lewis, Ed Reed, or Terrell Suggs anchoring Ravens defense
Baltimore pass rush has been feeble this season
Chargers defense had only 1 sack first three games – had 11 last four weeks
Under coach McCoy, when playing out of division
San Diego has lost only 10 of 27 ATS
(The first time San Diego plays a team,
Mike McCoy has been able to hide the team’s limitations
with elite coaching, but more familiar matchups have been a problem)
Ravens off loss: 27-10 the next game (straight-up)
If lost game by TD or more: 11-1 SU and 9-3 ATS
How will Harbaugh’s intensity and frustration wear on the team during a lost season?
Last 61 home games, Baltimore has won 48
Ravens 11-1 SU all-time at home against West Coast teams
(+1.5) Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears
Chicago scoreboard better than stats
Chicago tied for worst scoring defense (29.8 ppg)
Chicago #28 scoring offense (20 ppg)
Some Wiseguys feel as if Chicago has been coached BETTER than any team in the league this season.
Chicago 10-2 ATS hosting Minnesota
Chicago in last 15 games: outscored 275-114 in First Half
Bears have covered only 14 of last 38 games ATS
Bears have covered only 5 of their last 21 home games
Bears 5-14 ATS in division
Last game for Chicago, gave up 546 yards to Detroit
Vikings #30 passing offense (197 ypg)
(-6) Arizona Cardinals at Cleveland Browns
Arizona better than record
Arizona with best ATS margin (+8.7 ppg)
Best yardage differential (+600 yards)
In Cardinals two losses this season: Arizona -6 in turnovers
(Arz outgained the victor in both games – by a combined 278 yards)
Arizona has not really been outplayed yet this season.
Carson Palmer has won 18 of 22 starts
Arizona is 23-10 SU last 33 (no matter who the QB)
Losing only 11 times against the spread
Arizona has allowed only FIVE 100 yard rushers last 34 games
Arizona #2 scoring offense (32.7 ypg); #4 yardage offense (407)
Cleveland QB uncertainty
MCcown beat up
Manziel under NFL investigation
Vegas considers Manziel to be a downgrade
Browns have many good players, but not at skill positions. It’s difficult to win with such limitations in the modern NFL.
Last season’s OC Kyle Shanahan departure from Browns a big loss (he’s excelling this year as OC for the Falcons)
Browns Dwayne Bowe: 0 catches this season (healthy scratch last three games)
Coach Brice Arians 17-8 ATS as a favorite
Cards on road 46-60-4 ATS (since 2002)
Browns worst defense against rush (151 ypg)
(+3.5) Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans
Houston’s stats deceivingly good
Houston has a positive yardage differential on the season … but significant time against prevent defense when trailing by large margins has juiced their numbers.
For example: Last week, with 9:15 left in the 3rd Q
Houston was down 41-0 (having gained only 80 yards)
Houston with worst ATS margin (-5.8 ppg)
Mariota status UNCERTAIN
(Vegas currently values him as worth only 1.5 points per game)
Houston’s offense is the fastest paced in the NFL (even faster than Philly)
Wiseguys questioning Bill O’Brain’s coaching.
Talk of conflict between Coach Bill O’Brien and GM Rick Smith.
Houston has yielded 16 TD passes with only 5 INTs
Ken Whisenhunt: 4-30 SU streak as head coach
Tennessee’s First road game since Sept 20th! (four home games plus bye)
Tennessee: covered only 6 of last 27 games
Mariota sacked 17 times in his last four starts
Tennessee #5 defense (324 ypg) … #2 against pass (195 ypg) … #29 against run (129 ypg)
(+3.5) New York Giants at New Orleans Saints
Deceiving win by Giants
Giants won and covered last week vs Dallas
But Cowboys had:
14 more first downs
171 more yards
16 minute Time of Possession advantage
4-0 turnover edge
(Giants scored on INT return and KO return)
Giants #31 yardage differential
Giants turnover differential: +9 (best in league)
Wiseguy UP arrow for Saints
Saints enjoying improved player health with O-Line and DBs
Improvements showing in this line:
Early line (before last week’s games): Saints -2
Saints at home: 3-7 ATS last 10
Prior 19 games: 18-0-1 ATS
Road team in Saints games (coached by Sean Payton) has covered 11 of last 16. Prior 44 games: road team covered only 6 times.
Coach Caughlin on the road in his career [59-39 ATS]
(+1.5) Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers
Vegas values Big Ben to be worth 8 points per game. Big Ben will very likely be less than 100% this week, so the upgrade if he plays would be less than that.
Cincy offense over D
Cincy #22 defense (370 ypg)
Bengals #2 scoring offense (30 ppg)
Cincy #1 yards per pass (9.1)
Andy Dalton top ranked QB in league
Bengals only undefeated team ATS (5-0-1)
Steelers do not play another road game till November 29.
Steelers #7 scoring defense
(+8) San Francisco 49ers at St. Louis Rams
Early line (before last week’s games): Rams -6
49ers WORSE than scoreboard
SF dominated by opponents the last five weeks:
First Downs: opponents 122; SF 63
Yards: opponents 2141; SF 1265
Time of Possession: opponents 177 mins; SF 123 mins
Gurley difference maker
Rams season stats on offense poor:
Rams averaged only 13.5 First Downs (last five weeks) … league average is over 20
But, Wiseguys expecting even more impactful contributions from RB Todd Gurley
128 yards last week
159 yards week before
146 yards week before that
Rams defensive front is elite enough to be disruptive – which is necessary to be effective in today’s offensive friendly NFL
Rams improved play should increase their home crowd’s engagement; Rams defense benefits a great deal from their crowd in a dome.
Rams #31 offense in both yards (298 ypg) and scoring (18 ppg) … worst passing offense (177 ypg)
SF worst scoring offense (14.7 ppg)
Wiseguys feel as if San Fran’s coaching staff has been overmatched.
(-3) New York Jets at Oakland Raiders
Strength against strength
Jets #3 rushing offense (137 ypg)
Oakland defense #3 against rush (84 ypg)
Oakland worst D against pass (303 ypg)
Two surging teams
Raiders third biggest Vegas ratings upgrade since start of season (4.5 points)
Jets biggest Vegas ratings upgrade since start of season (5.5 points)
Jets #2 yardage differential (+572)
Jets #2 defense (283 ypg) … #1 vs run (71 ypg)
16 of last 20 Jets losses by a TD or more
Coach Bowles likes to press corners and blitz – CB Revis perfect fit
(Jets) NFL road favorite that lost as a 7+ point underdog the week before: 24-15 ATS (since 1989)
Oakland led 37-6 with 2:50 left in 3Q vs. San Diego … this garbage time skewing of stats/scores to the Raiders disfavor is a change … Oakland has scored more garbage points (once game is uncompetitive) than any team in league since start of last season … implying team is even worse than the scoreboard would indicate.
Oakland at home: 34-62-1 (since 2003) … including 8-16 ATS last 24
From pro bettor David Malinsky: “Despite allowing 30 points to Pats, impressed with Jets defense. They held Brady to more than 2.0 per pass below his usual rate, and NE only tried to run the ball with RBs five times. Pats gave them the ultimate compliment by completely re-tolling their offense for that game, instead of trying to beat them with their regular flow.”
Jets sacked only 4 times this season (least in NFL)
(-6) Seattle Seahawks at Dallas Cowboys
Only 4th time since 2005 Cowboys a 5 point or larger home underdog
Cowboys: As a home underdog since 1990 (28-13 ATS)
Dallas as dogs by more than a FG: 17-4 ATS
Optimism for Dallas offense
Vegas says Romo worth 6 points per game
Matt Cassel replaced Brandon Weeden last week (who has lost 11 straight starts SU and ATS).
Vegas upgraded Cassel to 1.5 points better than Weeden.
Cowboys able to seemingly run bigger percentage of playbook with Cassel.
Optimism for Dallas defense
Dallas defense much improved with recent additions. Recent bye was especially valuable – giving Dallas the time to tweak their scheme to take full advantage of these additions.
Dallas with worst turnover differential in league (-9)
Extreme turnover margins tend to even out in the long run.
Initially it was thought that Seattle’s line just needed experience – now, Wiseguys are speculating the players are just not that good.
Russell Wilson sacked 31 times this season (most in NFL)
Chancellor back last FIVE games:
Seattle has allowed only 20 points combined in the First Half of those games
Seattle thinner on defense than in recent years – which might not hurt for a single game, but a significant negative factor on the season … and might be the source of some of Seattle’s 2nd Half problems.
Seattle also lost key coaches this offseason (possibly inferior halftime adjustments)
Seattle (starting in 2005): at home (60-29-2)
On road during same period: 37-51-2
If simply play on at home, against on road: 111-66-4 ATS (63% winners)
Seattle: 36-19-2 ATS overall last 57 games
Seattle vs Non-Div foes: 31-18-2 ATS
Seattle favored off a division win: 13-34 ATS
The underdog in Dallas games has covered 68% of the time (59-28 ATS since 2010)
Dallas offense with 6 TD passes and 7 INTs on season
SNF: (-3) Green Bay Packers at Denver Broncos
Only 4th game out of last 54 that Denver has been an underdog
Biggest home underdog for Peyton Manning since 2008
Defense the key
Green Bay best scoring defense (16.8 ypg)
Denver second best scoring defense (17 ppg)
Denver: Best defense by yards (281 ypg) … also #1 vs pass (192 ypg)
Denver’s defense #1 in sacks (26)
Green Bay’s defense #2 in sacks (23)
Denver #29 offense (325 ypg)
Denver has scored only 1 offensive TD in the last 2 games
Peyton Manning’s quarterback rating is #31 in league
Peyton Manning as a game-manager sounds great – but Denver’s lack of deep threat allows opponents to stack against the run, resulting in extremely poor rushing results for Denver.
Packers on road
Packers may be the best home team in the NFL
But on the road (since start of last season):
Green Bay 6-5 on road
(outscored in those games)
Manning has covered 9 straight off a bye
Coach McCarthy off a bye: Perfect 9-0 ATS as Green Bay’s coach
Denver 32-45 ATS at home since 2006 (18-13 ATS in Manning era)
Denver has won 33 games since the start of 2013 season:
27 of first 30 wins by a TD or more.
Last 3 wins, all by less than a TD.
Wade Phillips strong addition to Denver as defensive coordinator
MNF: (+7) Indianapolis Colts at Carolina Panthers 8:30
Early line (before last week’s games): Carolina -3.5
Vegas currently ranking Colts as an exactly AVERAGE team
Colts #30 yardage differential (-401)
Colts worst defense (408 ypg)
Carolina last 13 games, have outgained (more total yards) opponents 12 times
Panthers second biggest Vegas ratings upgrade since start of season (5 points)
Big Name QBs
Cam Newton’s quarterback rating is #28 in league
Andrew Luck’s quarterback rating is #30 in league
Based upon the eye test, consensus opinion is that Luck is less than 100%
Colts now 17-4 ATS the game following a loss (failing to cover last 3)
Luck much better at home in career
Home: 21-8 SU (19-9-1 ATS)
Road: 16-14 SU (15-15 ATS)
Ron Rivera starts to seasons (SU)
Carolina at home: 14-7-1 ATS
Carolina #1 rushing offense (144 ypg)
Carolina defense has yielded only 5 TD passes (with 9 INTs)
Opposing QBs vs. Carolina with worst QB rating (67)
Andrew Luck threw two late scoring TDs last week – which on the surface seems like a good sign … but upon closer examination it was less about strong play from Luck and more about mistakes by the Saints defense.
Byes: Buffalo, Jacksonville, Philadelphia, Washington