Big Picture …
Bye teams favored: 15-27 ATS
Playoff underdogs getting TD or more: 26-17 ATS
(+7) BALTIMORE (11 - 6) at NEW ENGLAND (12 - 4) - 1/10/2015, 4:35 PM
Weather Forecast: 15 degrees
Matchup during Harbaugh/Flacco era
Patriots: 4 wins (only one by more than 6 points)
Ravens: 3 wins (two by over two TDs)
[three playoff games at NE: Baltimore 2-1 SU and 3-0 ATS … covering by a combined 50 points!]
Road playoff games during Harbaugh/Flacco era:
8-4 SU (no other NFL team with more than 4 such wins during this time)
9-3 ATS (covering spread by a combined net 108 points; no other team with more than 4 covers during this time)
Patriots 3-10 ATS last 13 playoff games
Vegas ranks Patriots 5.5 points better than Baltimore
New England’s home field advantage is Top 5 in league … estimate 3.5 points
So simply match says Patriots by 9
Road team in New England games: covered only 10 of last 34 games
Road team has covered only 13 of last 34 Ravens games
Ravens secondary revamped due to injury.
Strong D-line play has picked up the slack.
The Patriots have won seven games this season by at least 22 points
New England 44-4 SU last 48 regular season home games (SU)
In playoffs at home: 4-3 SU last 7 (correction ... removed two losses has "home team" in Super Bowl)
Pats at home when NOT laying double digits: 16-4 ATS
Off loss, Patriots 31-10 ATS (since 2003)
Patriots off loss when favored playing winning team next game: 15-1 ATS
Patriots +91 turnovers last 80 regular season games
Wiseguys like to fade popular teams
but that hasn’t worked against New England
If you had bet $1000 AGAINST the Pats & Bellichick every game since Brady’s first start, you’d be DOWN $51,000!
(+11) CAROLINA (8 - 8 - 1) at SEATTLE (12 - 4) - 1/10/2015, 8:15 PM
Seattle really good
Vegas ranks Seattle as the BEST TEAM in the NFL
with BEST Home Field Advantage
They’ve lost only 2 of 26 games at home during Russell Wilson era
covering 73% of those games
Carolina not so good
UNDER .500 record this regular season
But trending upwards:
Carolina has outgained opponents its last 7 games
(last week: 386 yards to Arizona’s 78 yards)
Panthers had been outgained their prior 9 games.
But Cam Newton not throwing as well of late as game stats imply.
Newton career vs. Seahawks
3 games (all at Carolina): offense produced a TOTAL of only 19 points
Laying Big Numbers in NFL tough
Tough even for Seattle at home:
Seattle when laying over TD at home: 5-9 ATS streak
Seattle (starting in 2005): 69% ATS at home (58-26-2)
On road during same period: 42% (36-49-1)
If simply play on at home, against on road: 107-62-3 (63% winners)
During Russell Wilson era at home: 19-7 Against The Spread [24-2 SU]
Seattle: 33-14-1 ATS overall last 47 games
Seattle in December or later: 18-4-1 ATS (last four seasons)
Seattle: 19-6-1 ATS vs. teams with a winning record
Seattle vs Non-Div foes: 29-13-1 ATS
Seattle when playing a SECOND straight home game: 19-4 ATS
2005 Patriots last reigning Super Bowl champ to win a playoff game.
(+6) DALLAS (13 - 4) at GREEN BAY (12 - 4) - 1/11/2015, 1:05 PM
Weather Forecast: 15 degrees
Dallas Historically good on road
Dallas 8-0 SU on road (every other team has lost at least 3 road games)
(2007 Pats only other 8-0 SU regular season team since 1991)
Ability to run ball
DeMarco Murray with 12 100-yard games this season
Note … heavy workload has somewhat slowed him late in season
(first 335 carries of the season, averaged 5.0 yards per carry; last 76 carries, averaged only 3.3 yards per carry)
Aaron Rodgers Injured Calf
Likely will play … But how limited?
Mobility is one of his key attributes
Must account for chance he will be re-injured and not finish the game.
Dallas plays up or down to competition
The underdog in Dallas games has covered 69% of the time (56-25 ATS since 2010)
Dallas as dogs by more than a FG: 15-3 ATS
Dallas defense ranked 25th for yards yielded per play
D. Murray has rushed for 100 yards or more 12 of 17 games this season
Green Bay defense much improved. Key factor is post-bye schematic change (moving Clay Mathews to an unusual hybrid ILB). If you look at the competitive portions of the last give GB games, defense has been outstanding.
Packers overall December or later: 24-12-2 ATS
Packers have outscored opponents 186-37 in the first half of the last six HOME games
Key to stopping GB is strong pass rush
(Dallas ranked only 28th in defensive Sack Percentage)
(+7) INDIANAPOLIS (12 - 5) at DENVER (12 - 4) - 1/11/2015, 4:40 PM
45th game out of last 47 that Denver has been favored
Weather Forecast: 36 degrees
Colts on Road
Much better at home during Luck’s career (reg season and playoffs)
Home: 21-5 SU (18-7-1 ATS)
Away: 14-12 SU on road (14-12 ATS)
Indy has played 3 playoff teams on the road this season …
outscored by a combined 60 points in the first half
Andrew Luck has carried team
otherwise, average roster at best
(started 11th different offensive line combo last week)
Denver other than Manning
Since the start of last season,
Denver has won 27 games …
25 of the 27 by a Touchdown or MORE
Defense has exceeded expectations this season
Running game has exceeded expectations
(201 rush attempts over the last 6 games)
Talking to Vegas guys … the big question mark is Peyton Manning.
Performance in last month not great
Denver 31-43 ATS at home since 2006 (17-11 ATS in Manning era)
Denver in December or later: 12-5 ATS (in Manning era)
Denver as a favorite (with Manning): 29-17 ATS
Andrew Luck: 31-19-2 ATS overall in his career
Colts in 2nd Half of season on road vs. winning team: 1-8 ATS
Colts +8 at Denver Week 1.
Even though Denver has lone benefit of bye this time, line is lower.
MONDAY: Ohio St vs. Oregon
Total: 75.5 (highest total in CFB Championship Game history)
The favorite has won 7 straight Championship games straight-up.
In 16 games, the spread has mattered only ONCE (meaning either the favorite covered or the underdog won the game 15 of 16 years)
Public loves Oregon
Oregon’s support bolstered by anti-Big Ten sentiment, “Football Sexy” offense, and recent destruction on national TV of a team that hadn’t lost in two seasons.
11th Bowl Game this season for Big Ten … 11th time Big Ten team an underdog!
How good is Ohio St?
Alabama was considered to be the best team in the country before OSU beat them. Many in Vegas believes OSU has the better team than Oregon outside of the QB position.
Ohio St: 9-5 ATS
Oregon: 10-4 ATS (favored every game this season)
4th time this season OSU is an underdog (3rd straight game)
Ohio St as underdog (since 2000):
CFB Playoffs has recreational bettors excited – many feel a need to be a part of it through a small bet.
Recreational bettors in big games love playing the dog on the money line … resulting in ML prices less correlated than usual to the point spread (i.e., the favorite [and dog payout] LOWER)
Exactly 8 overs and 8 unders in CFB Championship Game history
Favorite is 9-7 Against The Spread in CFB Championship Game history