Tuesday, August 5
Just about every NFL preseason total this week has had line movement up as early money has come on the over.
One reason for this is word coming out that NFL officials will be making more defensive interference and holding calls, which they want to establish during preseason.
Roger Goodell has tapped into North America's obsession with fantasy football knowing fans want to see scoring so this is a league-wide edict for officials to call ticky-tack penalties on the defense.
But for wagering purposes, is it the right move to bet on these inflated overs, or is it more prudent to sit back and then at post take the under knowing these totals probably have gotten stretched too far?
The Hall of Fame Game is the one result we have so far. The books opened that total at 32.5. It closed as high as 37. The Giants beat the Bills, 17-13.
I know some people are thrilled football is finally here and eager to fire away. But I have a hard time getting involved in a game where third and fourth-stringers figure to see heavy action and the coach's main priority may be to look at his full roster rather than go all out to win.
As for totals, you're just asking for trouble trying to go over a 38 during the first week of preseason.
On the handicapping front, I lost my lone Monday play with the Tigers falling to the Yankees by one run. I am now 10-2 on my last 12 paid/free plays up more than 17 units during this span. I am 13-5-2 on my last 20 over/unders and have my Baseball Total of the Week going today. It can be found here: http://pregame.com/pregamepros/pro-bettor/bettor.aspx?id=7746#capper. My season football package also is available at a special limited time discounted price.
As always no bad luck!
Stephen Nover has been on the sports gaming scene for 30 years. Stephen has parlayed a 20-year career as an award-winning sportswriter, part-time oddsmaker for legendary linesmaker Roxy Roxborough, co-host of the former Sunday Night Stardust Line radio show, teacher of a football handicapping class at UNLV and author of two sports gaming books and a book on fantasy football, into becoming one of the top handicappers in the country.
A native of Wisconsin, Stephen covered college and pro sports for daily newspapers in the Midwest, South and West, including 13 years at the Las Vegas Review-Journal where he covered sports gaming and UNLV sports. Stephen is The author of two sports gambling books, "Las Vegas Sports Beat" and "Sports Gaming Beat", along with a book on fantasy football titled, "Winning Fantasy Football."
Stephen taught a football handicapping class in the fall of 2004 at UNLV and was the co-host of the Sunday night sports betting radio show "The Stardust Line" for many years building up a lifetime of outstanding sources and connections. It's helped him produce winning NFL seasons in 18 of the last 20 years, including cashing 67 percent of his NFL plays in 2012.