Yesterday’s NBA Card:
NBA - 701 Orlando Magic @ 702 Indiana Pacers
I’ve won my only play of the day w/ BOS yesterday but, the reality is that ORL was quite competitive in that game even though they played without J. Nelson. Without Nelson, rookie Oladipo was the “Point Guard” and he clearly struggled in that position w/ 3-16 FG, 5 assists vs. 3 TO’s. However, ORL was competitive because their frontcourt unit was solid offensively: Vucevic 7-14 FG, Davis 6-12 FG and Harris 6-12 FG! The key factor in here is that ORL faced the poor BOS frontcourt defense unit led by Bass & Sullinger and so, It was “relatively” easy for them to produce in this area.
This might change tonight vs. IND frontcourt….
Nelson is confirmed being OUT for today, so ORL will have the same ball handling problems for tonight. The problem is that I don’t expect their frontcourt to be so efficient vs. best interior defense of the league.
We had one of the worst “bad beats” of the season w/ Under IND vs. BKN because the game was in pace for an “easy winner”. IND scored 97 points in that game but note that they went 37 times to the FT line because once again, they struggled to hit outside shots – just 3-15 3pts vs. BKN…1-15 vs. PHX & 5-21 vs. LAL! I expect the trend to carry on tonight while this contest won’t be fun to watch.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 701/702 Under 190.5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
NBA - 717 Toronto Raptors @ 718 Utah Jazz
This Raptors team has some heart and fight on them, something that they have lacked in the previous seasons as it would be pretty easy to “fold” on their last game @POR when down big early & b2b spot, but they rallied back and almost won the game down the stretch.
Against an inferior team like UTA, I expect them to win tonight’s contest by a safe margin because they match up pretty well against them.
Both offenses rely heavily on Pick n Rolls… TOR is using primarily Lowry & DeRozan, while the Jazz is using rookie Burke + Hayward + Burks. The difference is that TOR’s backcourt unit is playing some stellar basketball of late while UTA’s rookie Burke is struggling right now by shooting 35% FG in L10 games.
However the X factor for this contest is related w/ Defense of both teams vs. P&R's…
While TOR is one of the best defensive teams in the league defending P&R ball handler plays – ranked #4, UTA is ranked just #22 and their defensive numbers lately vs. this play has been regressing.
It looks like D. Favors is OUT for tonight and so, I don’t think there will be any significant edge on the frontcourt for neither team, so the backcourt battle will be pretty decisive, and right now, TOR has a considerable edge and so, I’m taking TOR in here as my Single Dime Play.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 717 Toronto Raptors (-4) @ -110 / 1.91 on Betonline
NBA - 703 Portland Trail Blazers @ 704 Washington Wizards
***TRIPLE DIME PLAY***
The matchup between these two teams is in my opinion a matchup that favors a “low” scoring game and because both teams have been “Over” machines so far in the season, we are getting an inflated totals line.
POR is still the best offensive team in the league, but lately they have been an inconsistent on the offense end. Their schedule has been more difficult and teams are adjusting to POR’s offensive style. They couldn’t produce vs. GSW & MEM and last game vs. a tired Raptors’ team, they were able to score 106 points mainly due to their 28-35 FT mark.
POR P&R’s is their main offensive play alongside w/ L. Aldridge post up’s and this is where the Blazers offensive problems will start tonight b/c WAS defense is really an elite team vs. P&R ball handler plays – ranked #3 in the league! POR is also struggling shooting from the outside w/ just 32.9% in L10 games (ranked #26 in the league!). Finally, POR had only 1 day off to rest and they had to make a huge trip POR -> WAS. Bottom line, this is a bad spot & matchup for POR offense tonight…
On the other end, I don’t think that WAS offense will explore the biggest weakness of POR defense: interior defense. WAS is more focused on the perimeter as they are a good 3pts shooting team and this is where POR defense is more effective – ranked #6 defending spot up plays, so I also expect POR defense to be solid and therefore, we really have some serious edge w/ Under in here = Triple Dime Play!
Pick: 5 units (Triple Dime Play) on 703/704 Under 208.5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
NBA - 705 Detroit Pistons @ 706 Miami Heat
As expected, MIA took care of the business @NYK and we easily won our play w/ them. MIA is really focused right now w/ their defense…. They held NYK to just 91 points and tonight’s matchup, as strange as it might sound is a good matchup for the Heat defensively…
I understand that DET will have a huge size edge down low but the real MIA defense problem has been defending the perimeter as they have been slow to rotate. Just for their opponents when they defeated MIA:
WAS 10-22 3pts
ATL 12-31 3pts
OKC 16-27 3pts
Yep! The good news is that DET really can’t hit a three pointer to save their lives – ranked dead last w/ 30.6%, so MIA will simply pack the paint vs. DET tonight and dare DET to beat them from the outside.
DET is coming from two solid wins vs. lowly teams and their biggest focus in those games was their defense. They improved a bit and I expect them to be decent tonight vs. MIA that is struggle a bit from the outside. My fair line for this contest is 202/203 points and so, we have the proper edge to make a play w/ Under.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 705/706 Under 206 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
NBA - 715 Cleveland Cavaliers @ 716 Dallas Mavericks
DAL is coming from a clear loss @HOU in which HOU elite P&R ball handler defense and a player like D. Howard down low completely shut down CLE defense that needs badly to perform @P&R BH by their aggressive guards. The good news is that they will face the Mavericks tonight…a team that has Calderon & Monta Ellis on the backcourt and are a poor interior defensive team, so this is a good spot for CLE offense to finally be decent.
On the other side, DAL offense is rolling in the L4 games w/ impressive 122.0 Off. Rtg. CLE backcourt defense is just terrible and by inserting J. Jack in the backcourt, CLE head coach Mike Brown is only concerted w/ offense because Irving & Jack = terrible defensive combo, so we can expect Monta Ellis to enjoy a big offensive game tonight!
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 715/716 Over 205 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker