You're right, my previous post was not productive.
Thank you for giving me the opportunity to ask a productive question.
Can you please explain to me how New Orleans good free throw shooting last game creates value on the Magic tonight? Ive never considered this angle and I'm interested to learn about it.
Thanks in advance for your answer.
Here's my short answer. I don't know. However, here's my thinking.
I would like to get my "finger on the pulse" of a team's mental state. Are they focused, are they frustrated, are they loose, are they tight, do they have a tendency to choke? Are they over-confident and thus have the tendency to take poor shots?
It is difficult to get a handle on this based on a team's shooting percentage from the field because this is a strong function of the opponent's defense abilities. How a team performs at the free-throw line can be a good indicator of their mental state because it does not involve the level of their opponent. Historical results seem to indicate that the Pelicans are overestimated by the linesmakers after a terrific shooting performance. They are not alone.
When handicapping the NBA, there are no absolutes, there are just inferences and we have to make our best decision based on the preponderance of the evidence. I'm not SURE that the Pelican's performance is a strong function of their free throw shooting in their last game, but I'm aggressively exploring all avenues in an attempt to find parameters that will forecast future performance. As an example...
Here is a league-wide system involving free-throw shooting that has hit 72.2% since the start of the 1999 NBA season:
NBA teams are 20-52-3 ATS since 1999 on the road with at most one day of rest after a home loss by more than ten points in which they shot less than 60% from the free-throw line. The SDQL text is:
A and rest < 2 and p:margin < -10 and p:H and p:FTP < 60 and season >= 1999
Of course, this could be just a random fluctuation, but we are a perfect 9-0 with this system since December and it makes good handicapping sense to me.
Thanks for the question and Best of Luck!