I've really enjoyed your SDQL postings. I've been all over the NFL and it's really improved my handicapping.
I have a question about your stat for the Grizz tonight. How could Randolph taking less than 10 shots be important?
I know you disclaim all these as just showing the power of the SDQL, but your reasoning in the NFL thread was really insightful. I'm new to basketball so any reasoning you have for this trend would be really helpful. With some of your previous trends they made sense to me(like the Raptors breaking a losing streak) but this one befuddles me.
I'm glad you're following along with the SDQL.
As I've mentioned before, these are not "plays." They are facts about what has happened in the past. The individual handicapper has to decide whether the trend in past performance is a predictor of future performance.
That said, I think that it is reasonable to consider the possibility that this is important. In the NBA, more than any other team sport, an individual player's performance is key. We have made a lot of money with key-player trends involving Paul Pierce, Rajon Rondo, Kobe Bryant, Steve Nash and more recently, Kevin Durant -- The Thunder is still perfect in franchise history as a favorite when seeking same-season revenge for a loss in which Durant committed five-plus turnovers.
When a player that is often the high scorer for his team is off a game in which he was not a focus of the offense, a number of things can happen that forces the team out-of-synch. The team can over-compensate are try to get him the ball too often. Or, the player will not be active off the ball because he feels his teammates are not sharing the rock. Or the player himself tries to force too many shots. Or maybe none of this is true. You have to look at the individual team and the individual player.
The point I'm trying to make is that with the SDQL, you can investigate how team performs based on the performance of their key players in the previous games(s). In the NBA, this is very important and can give the handicapper a significant advantage over the linesmakers.