Had 1 play last night (Posted it in my CBB thread) and it was an easy winner on the under in the Portland game. Let's keep mthe winning going tonight.
3 UNIT PLAYS
Lakers/ Phoenix Under 185.5: Google News Play. Here's a stat you don't see often... Phoenix has gone Under the total in 21 of their 30 games this year, including going under in 13 of their 17 road games this year. Most of that is because Phoenix is averaging about 10 ppg less than last year, but also because they have been playing better defense this year as well as they come in allowing just 96.9 ppg overall and 97.4 ppg on the road. Phoenix has really struggled to score on the road as they have averaged just 92.4 ppg away from and tonight they get to face a Lakers squad that has played really good defense at home this year. The Lakers overall have allowed just 90.6 ppg on 41.7% shooting, while at home they have allowed just 84.7 ppg on 39.5% shooting. I expect the mid 80's at best from Phoenix in this one. The Lakers could also be in the 80's as they have averaged just 88.6 ppg in their last 5 games, but I will call for them to put up something in the mid 90's vs this average Phoenix defense. Just not enough offense in this one to think that it can hit the mid 180's.
PHILADELPHIA -3 over Dallas: Gonna be a homer in this one as I usually don't make the Sixers one of my top plays, but I feel I can't pass this one up. Yes Philly has been struggling of late, but i gotta feel that they should be up for this one tonight. I mean playing at home, vs the defending champs on National TV has to get the juices flowing. Philly has lost 3 of their last 4 at home, with those losses being vs the Heat, Spurs and Clippers, so you know that they will be even more fired up tonight to show that they can play with some of the big boys in the league. Despite the recent slide at home the Sixers have still gone 13-5 there and have outscored their opponents by 10.8 ppg. Philly allows a mere 83.6 ppg at home and that is not good for a Dallas team that will probably be missing Jason Terry (14.8 ppg) and will be missing Delonte West (8.3 ppg) tonight. Dallas has also played good defense this year, but they have allowed about 8 ppg more on the road than the Sixers have allowed at home. In a nationally televised game it will be important for the Sixers show that they can compete with the big boys of the East, by taking care of one of the big boys of the West.
Sacramento +3.5 over DETROIT: The Kings are just 10-19 overall this year and just 3-14 on the road this year, but a closer look at their last 10 games tells us that they haven't been playing all that bad. Sure they are off a 15 point road loss to Lin-sanity and the Knicks and in their last home game they were blown out by Phoenix, but included in their other 8 games are 3 point road losses to the Jazz and Warriors, home wins over Portland and GS, a road win over New Orleans, a 2 point road loss to the Wolves, a home win over the Thunder and a 6 point road loss to the bulls in a game in which they hung 115 points on one of the better defensive teams in the league. This team could have easily been 7-3 in their last 10 games and not 4-6. Detroit is in a bad situational spot here as they are off a huge road upset of the Celtics and must turn right around and face them on Sunday. Not a good spot for Detroit to be in. I look for the Kings to take this one outright vs a Detroit team that should come out a bit flat after their big win over the Celtics.
5 POINT TEASER--- Lakers -3 & Miami -4.5
2 UNIT PLAYS
Miami -9.5 over CLEVELAND: Last year Lebron put up 32.5 ppg on 54% shooting, with 10 apg and 7.5 rpg in his two trips to Cleveland, while Wade has averaged 30.5 ppg in his last 20 games vs Cleveland. Let's also note that Bosh has put up 50 points and grabbed 16 rebounds in Miami's 2 wins vs Cleveland this year. The Cavs reall have no on that can stop the big 3 in this one. This is the last game of a 6 game road trip, but the Heat have had two days rest sine beating the Pacers and they have won the last 4 on this trip by at least 15 points in each game. Miami should continue to roll here.
Charlotte/ Toronto Under 183.5: Charlotte has scored 82.6 ppg in their last 5 games and 85.6 ppg on the road. The Raptors have averaged 88.7 ppg overall and just 91.2 ppg at home. The defenses may be bad in this one, but I just don't see these bad offenses being able to capitalize. This game should be played in the 170's.
1 UNIT PLAY
Washington +10 over UTAH: Play on road dogs after allowing 100 points or more 2 straight games against opponent after scoring 40 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games. This play is 46-21 since 1996.