Thursday, July 18th, 2024, Las Vegas NBA Summer League

New Orleans Pelicans +8.5 vs. Memphis Grizzlies

Take the Memphis Grizzlies laying -8.5 points in Thursday's matchup against the New Orleans Pelicans. This handicap is all about MOTS: More of the same.

While I like backing the Grizzlies, who have been one of the most impressive teams in the 2024 NBA Summer League with a perfect 3-0 record straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS), the story of this year's Summer League has been the underperformance of marquee rookies, especially those expected to play significant minutes in the upcoming season. Outside of Reed Sheppard, who has been outstanding, almost every marquee rookie has not only struggled but hurt his team. We've seen this with the #1 pick, where the Atlanta Hawks are winless with rookie Zachary Risachee and seemed to play better in the first half when he was out with an injury. The Los Angeles Lakers, relying heavily on first-year players like Dalton Knecht and the high-profile Bronny James, have also underperformed. The Washington Wizards have underperformed, with rookie Alex Sarr going an abysmal 0-15 from the field in his most recent game. The Chicago Bulls, who drafted Matas Buzelis with the fifth overall pick, are also 0-3 SU and ATS as they emphasize their rookie's development rather than overall team cohesion.

We have cashed with this thinking, betting on reliable NBA vet James Jaquez over the Celtics' marquee rookie, and we cashed on the Golden State Warriors veteran players over the aforementioned Bulls and Buzelis.

We go back to this strategy on Thursday, where the Pelicans find themselves in a similar situation, heavily featuring their rookie center Yves Missi as the only projected starter from their regular season roster participating in the tournament. While this approach aims to give Missi valuable experience, it has led to growing pains on both ends of the floor. Missi is averaging just 7.0 points per game on a subpar 38.8% shooting and has acknowledged the need to improve his defense and communication. In contrast, the Grizzlies' success can be attributed to the stellar play of their young duo, G.G. Jackson and Scottie Pippen Jr. Jackson, both with previous NBA experience, has seamlessly integrated into the team, showcasing his scoring prowess and ability to create his own shot. Pippen Jr., now in his second year, has taken on a leadership role and consistently made plays for his teammates.

The Grizzlies' superior talent and cohesion, coupled with the Pelicans' overreliance on their struggling rookie big man, tilts the odds heavily in Memphis' favor. While marquee rookies across the league have underperformed, the Grizzlies have found a winning formula and have eyes on winning the Summer League crown. Lay the points with the Memphis Grizzlies -8.5 as they look to continue their impressive Summer League run against an overmatched New Orleans Pelicans squad weighed down by the struggles of their highly-touted rookie.