Saturday, July 13th, 2024, Las Vegas NBA Summer League

Boston Celtics -1.5 vs. Miami Heat (O/U 182)

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Take the Miami Heat getting +1.5 points in this matchup over the Boston Celtics.

In this modern NBA rivalry, the Celtics had the last laugh by winning their most recent playoff series and hoisting the Larry O'Brien trophy a few rounds later. However, while the Celtics sit on top of the heap of the overall NBA for now, it is the Heat who find themselves most fully in their element in the NBA Summer League action. The numbers show they are a good bet this time of year in any game—and I think the Heat will be particularly focused on exacting some modicum of revenge against the C's.

The Heat are renowned for creating both stars and solid rotation players out of unknown, unheralded players such as Max Strus, Duncan Robinson, Kendrick Nunn, Gabe Vincent, and Caleb Martin. They maximize development and challenge their team to get the most out of borderline NBA players. This process starts now in the summer league, where the Heat have excelled over the past decade. Since 2016 (as far as my data goes back), the Heat are 29-20 SU and 30-18-1 ATS in Summer League competition. True to their "Heat-culture" spirit of dogged determination and overperformance, they are an even more remarkable 21-14 SU and 26-8-1 ATS as underdogs in these contests.

On the other hand, the Celtics prioritize top-end talent and seldom develop marginal NBA players into key rotation players. Unsurprisingly, their results have been middling in the NBA Summer League, especially in recent years as less priority has been given to their young players. Boston will likely spend this summer league overly funneling offense to their first-round draft pick, Baylor Scheierman, the one player who might earn significant rotation minutes for the Celtics in the 2024-2025 season. Scheierman might be one of the best all-around team players on the court—but in potentially over-emphasizing his development as an offensive player, the team will be deviating from optimal basketball.

The Heat emphasize maximizing all of their lottery tickets among their young talent, providing a more cohesive team-based effort in these matchups, as seen historically. Take advantage of this trend by backing them here at plus-money odds.