Sides have been a complete Zig-Zag in these finals, with the total being close but still following the same trend. I thought this series would end up like this on the first day of these finals, and will follow that analysis and trend here today as well.
Celtics/Warriors Total Over 210; Was pretty surprised to see this drop from 212 yesterday to 210 today. The pace of these games has been way above the usual, especially when considering the defensive prowess of these two teams. The Celtics scored 3 points in the last 5:30 of the 4th quarter of game 4, and we still got within 7 points of going over 210. Both teams shot mediocre in game 4, compared to how they have been shooting for the series. The Celtics outshot Golden State from the arc by 4% as a team, even missing almost all of their last 6 minutes of shots that were taken from behind the arc, going 39% on the game. Curry really did bring the Warriors back into this game with his astounding 43 point game, shooting 50% from the arc, and higher % from the floor and only missing 1 free throw. While Curry is almost automatic to have a great game, the surrounding caste for the Warriors has been less than spectacular. The Celtics on the other hand have been much more balanced as a team scoring. Another big reason I like this over tonight is the Celtics went 19-47 from inside the arc in game 4, which is pitiful. They missed so many open layups that they normally make that I lost count. I think we get a retraction back to the mean as usual in this game, and this equates to an easy 215 points total or so. One last reason for this bet, is I noticed Udoka likes to have his players press offensive pace on the road, especially early in the game. I think he realizes his Celtics squad does not play well from behind, and the Celtics have been one of the worst clutch teams in the league in the 4th quarter. So his emphasis will be on getting the lead early in this one, which also lends itself to a 1Q Celtics side bet. This total is my favorite bet of the day.
Boston Celtics +4; Surprised to see this only move a hook from Saturday, with 65% of public money on the Warriors. A lot of the reasons I am taking this bet as well, with less units, I listed up in the top paragraph. No way the Celtics go nearly scoreless in the last 5.5 minutes of the game, and no way they miss such a high number of layups again. I think, while Curry almost certainly has a good game tonight, it will be hard to replicate his impressive game 4 performance. And I really don't have a lot of faith in the Warrior's surrounding players to get it going when they have shown very little through 4 games. At this point in the series, I think we get a game 7, both of these teams are incredibly talented and have shown their ability to bounce back time and time again throughout these playoffs. Again I like Celtics 1Q bet also here, and Warriors 3Q is probably solid as it has been all series.
Good luck tonight.