Game 5 home teams/favorites have not covered a spread since 2015 –
The last five Game 5 home teams/favorites have failed to cover their point
spreads, going 1-4 SU & 0-4-1 ATS, losing the last three by 4-points or less.
• Momentum has been a big factor in Games 5-7– The later a series gets, the
more important momentum has become, as teams coming off a double-digit
win in a NBA Finals game are 5-4 SU & 6-2-1 ATS in Games 5-7 of a series.
• Teams facing elimination in Game 6 have most often bowed out – There
have been six teams that have faced elimination in Game 6 of the NBA
Finals since 2013. These teams are 2-4 SU & 1-5 ATS in those contests.
• Trends by Seed Number (note that this year’s Finals matches a No. 2 in
Boston versus a No. 3 in Golden State)
• Momentum has been key when No. 2 have been the better seed – There
have been two series since 2018 in which the No. 2 seeded team was the
better seed, such as this year’s matchup. In those two series’ teams coming
off a win in the series are on a 7-1 SU & ATS run in the follow up games.
• Teams seeded third or worse have been great late-series options – The last
two NBA Finals series’ have featured one of the teams playing as a seed
of third or worse. These teams have been good in Games 3 and later of
their respective series’, going 6-2 SU & 7-1 ATS.