My NBA and NHL picks have been solid lately, so I thought I'd share in the forum. I taking the Mavericks and the 6.5 pts against Golden State.
1) My personal numbers have the Warriors winning by 2.88 points, so I think I'm getting a lot of value here.
2) Based on shot quality, Game 1 was much closer than the score indicated.
A similar thing happened with the Celtics-Heat. Game 1 looked like a dominant win by Miami, but the reality was that the Celtics were the better team based on the quality of shots and who was taking them. Game 2 reverted closer to form and Boston established themselves as the better team on the actual scoreboard. I look for something similar to happen with Mavs-Warriors.
3) The Mavericks always answer the call after a loss. Dallas has been the best team (by far) against the spread after a loss this season, going 26-9 ATS and covering the spread by an average of 6.61 points. They're also 25-10 SU after a loss, winning by an average of 6.43 points per game.
In fact, Dallas has gone 13-0 ATS and SU in their last 13 games (dating back to last season) following a loss of 17 points or more, covering the spread by an average of 12.27 points per game. They perform well after a loss and exceptionally after a blowout.
I took Mavs +6.5, but I'd still like it at +6. BOL.