GSW/PHX U222 (*Available a 223 as of 11 AM ET at William/Caesars)
My analysis of these teams' recent and YTD results leads me to conclude this total is inflated upwards by 4-5 points - likely a result of the hype coming into this game between the #1 and #2 teams in the NBA right now record-wise.
RAW STATS: YTD Totals and Combined Scores
The Suns have had an average Total of 219.5 that's 3 points lower than this total, their games have had an average score of 217.5, 5 points lower.
The Warriors have had an average total of 221, 1 point lower - and had an average combined score of 214.5, 7.5 points lower than the market for this game.
I also think the spot players a higher intensity game. Just like the Warriors and Clippers on Sunday - these are two contenders who will approach this game with more intensity than versus an average opponent. Even more than GSW/LAC, tonight's match-up will answer the question "Who is the best team in the NBA?" for the foreseeable future (likely until after football).
MATCH-UP:
The Under in this matchup has gone 34-30-1 since 2005, including 22-11 when Phoenix is the home team and 9-2 overall over the last three seasons heading into this year. These franchises carry with them the history of run-and-gun teams that don't exactly match-up with their current relatively slower paced dynamics.
The Warriors forced the Clippers into a season 24 turnovers in route to holding their 11th straight opponent their team total. (Suns have held their opponent under their TT that in 8 of their last 10 games.)
The Suns have the antidote in half-court point God Chris-Paul does not want his opponent Steph Curry leaking out on breaks and breaking the game open. Paul cannot win that way, cannot outshoot Curry. He can grind the game down and win without a thousand paper cuts, however, in the half-court.
Over the last 5 games, the Suns have an average Total of 216 and the Warriors have an average total 215, 6.5 and 7.5 points lower than this total respectively.
So is there something in this match-up that speeds these teams up or plays them to play worse defensively/better offensively? The numbers say NO. The two times Paul and Curry faced off last year the combined score was 217.
The last 4 times Phoenix hosted the Warriors the average total was 222 - the same as it is today.
So despite this match-up trending Under in recent years, despite each of these teams trending Under this year, and especially so recently - the market has not adjusted even a half-point. I'm betting that's a mistake.
Why not a 3-star:
Draymond, the Warriors best defensive players, is questionable despite being expected to play, dealing with a back issue.
The average match-up over last season was 223, 1/2 point higher than this current total. That includes the last match-up between these teams - in May of last year - had a total posted of 232 and still went over the total with a combined score of 238. That GSW team was not the #1 defensive team in the league however - and was not the challenger to the Suns they are today.
Still, that may game was a data point and the most recent one I'd be remiss to omit. By estimation the data supports this as a solidly profitable play, with the total inflated by 4-5 points