513 Hornets/Blazers Over 232.5
I like this spot for a lot of the same reasons I liked the Hornets/Kings going over their total. Two bad defenses getting together with some offenses that are more than capable of having big nights. I also think the Blazers are overvalued in this spot laying 6.5. I don’t think their defense is good enough to cover a number as high as it is and the Hornets just proved they’re capable of coming back from any lead against a bad defense. Another big factor for liking the Over is the effect of LaMelo Ball. Last year the Hornets played at the slowest pace in the league ranking dead last in pace of play but this year they rank above league average at 12th and in LaMelo’s 12 starts they rank even higher at 3rd and he’s averaging 19 PPG 6 APG and 6 RPG during that span as well. Playing at this pace is much better for this team because it allows all the scoring options they have to put up points. The Hornets will be on the 2nd end of a back to back but they’ve played well in this situation this year going 4-3 SU with a 112.7 offensive rating. Also they might even have Gordon Hayward back for this matchup giving them their 3 top scorers available.
The Blazers have been depending on their offense pretty much all season to lead them to wins and it’s been working out as they sit in the 5th seed and their offense should have no problems producing in this matchup. Over their last 4 games they’ve had to go up against some defenses that rank 10th or better in their last 10 games and they’ve been held in check so I’m looking for them to have a big offensive night led by Lillard. The Over has only been hitting 50% of the time for the Blazers at home but playing against the Hornets who are the best team on the road for games going over at 73% will force them to play at a faster pace and put points up.
The Over is 9-0 in the Hornets last 9 games as a road underdog, 5-1 in their last 6 road games vs a team with a winning record and 6-1 in their last 7 games overall while the Over is 16-5 in the Blazers last 21 games when they play on Monday.