550 76ers (-10.5) over Cavs
With the Sixers being in the 1st seed and Joel Embiid having a strong chance to win the MVP I don’t see them losing any motivation or letting up in this spot going up against a bad team in the Cavs. They’re one of the best defenses in the league ranking top 5 in defensive rating and 6th in opponent eFG%. It did slip a little over their last 10 games to around league average but they played 6 of the top 10 or better offenses in that span. In their last game against the Mavs who rank 6th in offensive rating they held them under 100 points and Ben Simmons kept Luka under control so I don’t think they should have any issues handling the Cavs. Tobias Harris could miss this game but the Sixers have multiple guys that can step up for this matchup like Shake Milton and Ben Simmons. Also since the 2019-20 season the Sixers are the best team at home ATS going 30-15-2 ATS.
The Cavs coming off 2 straight wins but that was against teams that are not in the same class as the 76ers and before they won those 2 games they lost 10 straight games and 9 of those losses were by double digits against 9 playoff teams. They’re also one of the worst defenses in the league ranking in the bottom 5 in defensive rating and opponent eFG% so this could get ugly.
With the line being set at 10.5 isn’t bad to play for the game I have the Sixers being 21 points better and I’d play the Sixers up to 12/12.5. The Cavs are 1-6 ATS on the road facing teams above .500 and they’re 2-4 ATS as an underdog between 10-12 points.