Heat + +8 **
There are similarities, but also key differences in this series with the Lakers compared to the last two that makes me optimistic about the Heat chances tonight.
The first two games, Miami was sloppy, tentative, and injured. The played a zone that didn't work as the Lakers dominated in the paint and were knocking down open three's. There were a couple key changes in the game 3 win for Miami. Jimmy Butler took more of a leadership role (obviously) and they switched their defensive philosophy. Regardless of whether Bam plays or not, Butler and the Heat look like the tough nosed team that rolled through the east. They seem to have confidence and identity for this series.
Regarding the last two series for the Lakers, both in which they one in 5 games. The game after they lost, the won by 8 and 6 respectively. The narrative that the Lakers will just roll tonight seems a bit overblown. When looking the series against the Nuggets, Jokic seemed to be in foul trouble the whole series, which really limited what they could do. The heat have shown they can win a game without Bam, so whether he plays or not, I like their mindset.
The Lakers seem to be regressing a bit shooting the ball and I expect the Heat (especially Robinson and Herro 5/17) to shoot better tonight and through out the series. Yes, Anthony David will have a better scoring night, but not necessarily a better rebounding night. If the Heat continue to rebound, this game will stay close. Do I think they can win? Yes. Do I want to take a shot at the ML? Not really...
All the best to everyone.